NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+10HOU

HOU

44-29

119109

MEM

24-49

NBAFri, Mar 27FinalSeriesHOU leads series 3-0VegasHOU -13.5

Recap · NBA

ouston Rockets went into Memphis Grizzlies and beat them, 119–109.

MEM +13.5 cashed (HOU won by 10). Total cleared the 227.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

HOU · top performer

Kevin Durant

F · #7

24.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

MEM · top performer

Olivier-Maxence Prosper

F · #18

30.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. DurantF · #7	35	25	8-14	3-7	6-7	+8	6	10
J. Smith Jr.F · #10	37	21	7-16	2-7	5-8	+8	16	4
A. SengunC · #28	33	14	6-13	—	2-4	-1	8	7
A. ThompsonG · #1	40	18	7-15	1-2	3-3	+3	8	3
R. SheppardG · #15	28	15	6-15	3-7	—	+5	5	5
Bench
J. TateF · #8	9	2	1-2	0-1	—	+3	1	0
T. EasonF · #17	29	16	6-14	1-6	3-4	+11	7	1
C. CapelaC · #30	15	2	1-1	—	—	+9	5	0
A. HolidayG · #0	15	6	2-3	2-3	—	+4	1	0
Team		119	44-93	12-33	19-26		57	30
DNP: J. Green, D. Finney-Smith, I. Crawford, J. Okogie

DNP: J. Green, D. Finney-Smith, I. Crawford, J. Okogie

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
O. ProsperF · #18	29	31	12-15	4-5	3-3	-4	7	2
T. HendricksF · #22	30	5	2-11	0-5	1-2	-1	7	1
C. CowardF · #23	25	10	4-7	1-2	1-1	+7	4	2
G. JacksonF · #45	30	14	5-14	2-7	2-2	0	4	0
J. SmallG · #10	25	14	6-9	2-3	—	+1	3	5
Bench
T. GibsonF · #67	9	8	2-2	—	4-4	+1	1	3
T. BurtonF · #5	25	5	2-10	1-7	—	-14	2	1
D. JarreauG · #77	15	4	2-8	0-2	—	-13	6	3
C. SpencerG · #24	29	11	4-7	3-4	—	-16	3	10
W. Clayton Jr.G · #4	23	7	1-8	0-2	5-6	-11	2	1
Team		109	40-91	13-37	16-18		39	28
DNP: J. Wells, T. Jerome

DNP: J. Wells, T. Jerome

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Season series

HOU leads series 3-0

Nov 6

HOU124@

MEM109

Jan 27

MEM99@

HOU108

Mar 28

HOU119@

MEM109today

Apr 13

MEM101@

HOU132

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

HOU -13.5

Between 10 and —

Total

227.5

Standard · +1.5 vs avg

Moneyline

HOU-95090%

MEM+62514%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet HOU -13.5↗SpreadBet HOU -13.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

13.5

0.0 since open

Total

227.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowHOU ↔ MEM

Biggest swing: 8pp · 3rd Quarter · 8:15

HOU

K. Durant

Game leader · 35 minDouble-double

25 PTS · 6 REB · 10 AST

MEM

O. Prosper

Game leader · 29 min30-point game

31 PTS · 7 REB · 2 AST

How it ended

HOU beat MEM 119-109. K. Durant paced them with 25 PTS, 6 REB, 10 AST.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

MEM vs HOU

Starters vs bench

production by unit

HOUstarters 78% of pts

Starters(5)

93 PTS · 43 REB · 29 AST

GS 89

Bench(4)

26 PTS · 14 REB · 1 AST

GS 21

MEMstarters 68% of pts

Starters(5)

74 PTS · 25 REB · 10 AST

GS 60

Bench(5)

35 PTS · 14 REB · 18 AST

GS 31

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

HOU2nd Quarter · 2:45 · 49-43

+7pp→ 80% WP

Cedric Coward · enters the game for Taylor Hendricks

HOU3rd Quarter · 9:29 · 63-61

+7pp→ 77% WP

GG Jackson · shooting foul

HOU3rd Quarter · 8:15 · 64-62

+8pp→ 72% WP

Tyler Burton · misses 25-foot three point jumper

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
HOU	32	24	31	32	119
MEM	30	19	33	27	109

Period scoring

HOU won 3 · MEM won 1

Sengun 6

Jackson 10

Jr. 5

Coward 9

Durant 10

Prosper 15

Jr. 9

Prosper 26

HOU

MEM

Shooting comparison

HOU

MEM

47%

44-93

44%

40-91

36%

12-33

3PT

35%

13-37

73%

19-26

89%

16-18

Play-by-play · 485 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
HOU 119·MEM 109
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
HOU 119·MEM 109
Q4·22.0
Amen Thompson defensive rebound
HOU 119·MEM 109
Q4·24.7
GG Jackson misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot
HOU 119·MEM 109
Q4·29.1
Tari Eason makes 1-foot running dunk (Amen Thompson assists)
·
HOU 119·MEM 109
Q4·32.7
Amen Thompson defensive rebound
HOU 117·MEM 109
Q4·34.3
Javon Small misses 27-foot three point jumper
HOU 117·MEM 109
−0.6pp
Q4·39.5
Jabari Smith Jr. makes dunk
HOU 117·MEM 109
−2pp
Q4·53.2
Olivier-Maxence Prosper makes 25-foot three point jumper (Cam Spencer assists)
·
HOU 115·MEM 109
+2pp
Q4·58.8
Jabari Smith Jr. makes tip shot
HOU 115·MEM 106
−0.7pp
Q4·1:01
Jabari Smith Jr. offensive rebound
HOU 113·MEM 106
−1pp
Q4·1:01
Alperen Sengun misses tip shot
HOU 113·MEM 106
+1pp
Q4·1:02
Alperen Sengun offensive rebound
HOU 113·MEM 106
−1pp
Q4·1:02
Alperen Sengun misses two point shot
HOU 113·MEM 106
+1pp
Q4·1:02
Alperen Sengun offensive rebound
HOU 113·MEM 106
−1pp
Q4·1:05
Tari Eason misses 23-foot three point jumper
HOU 113·MEM 106
+1pp
Q4·1:14
Amen Thompson offensive rebound
HOU 113·MEM 106
−1pp
Q4·1:17
Kevin Durant misses 10-foot fade away jump shot
HOU 113·MEM 106
+0.7pp
Q4·1:40
Olivier-Maxence Prosper makes running dunk (Cedric Coward assists)
·
HOU 113·MEM 106
+0.9pp
Q4·1:43
Jabari Smith Jr. bad pass turnover (Cam Spencer steals)
·
HOU 113·MEM 104
+0.7pp
Q4·1:45
Cedric Coward enters the game for Taylor Hendricks
·
HOU 113·MEM 104
Q4·1:45
Javon Small enters the game for Tyler Burton
·
HOU 113·MEM 104
Q4·1:45
GG Jackson enters the game for Walter Clayton Jr.
·
HOU 113·MEM 104
Q4·1:45
Rockets Full timeout
HOU 113·MEM 104
Q4·2:08
Olivier-Maxence Prosper makes dunk (Cam Spencer assists)
·
HOU 113·MEM 104
Q4·2:17
Olivier-Maxence Prosper defensive rebound
HOU 113·MEM 102
Q4·2:19
Jabari Smith Jr. misses 22-foot three point jumper
HOU 113·MEM 102
Q4·2:41
Jabari Smith Jr. defensive rebound
HOU 113·MEM 102
Q4·2:41
Walter Clayton Jr. misses two point shot
HOU 113·MEM 102
−0.5pp
Q4·2:57
Taylor Hendricks defensive rebound
HOU 113·MEM 102

Team stats

HOU

Away

Stat

MEM

Home

44-93

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

40-91

FG %

12-33

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

13-37

19-26

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

16-18

Assists

Turnovers

Betting line

HOU -13.5·O/U 227.5·HOU -950/MEM +625

DraftKings · via ESPN

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 8 players in cohort

Reed SheppardHOU · G
DEFL599+
Tari EasonHOU · F
DEFL4.599
Amen ThompsonHOU · G
TOUCHES86.297
Alperen SengunHOU · C
CONT8.295
Kevin DurantHOU · F
TS%64.190

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · HOU favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MEM win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MEM win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MEM win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

MEM vs HOU.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

175

projections · 135 high confidence

Points

Kevin DurantHOU
25.3± 4.5high
Amen ThompsonHOU
20.2± 7.7high
Ja MorantMEM
19.6± 8.8high

Rebounds

Zach EdeyMEM
11.3± 7.8low
Alperen SengunHOU
9.4± 3.5high
Steven AdamsHOU
8.6± 2.2high

Assists

Ja MorantMEM
8.1± 3.9high
Kevin DurantHOU
5.8± 2.2high
Cam SpencerMEM
5.8± 2.9high

Blocks

Zach EdeyMEM
1.9± 2.3low
Alperen SengunHOU
1.1± 0.7high
Kevin DurantHOU
1.0± 1.1high

Steals

Amen ThompsonHOU
1.9± 1.3high
Scotty Pippen Jr.MEM
1.9± 2.1low
Tari EasonHOU
1.8± 1.8high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

HOU

league avg

MEM

53.7%

Effective FG%

54.4

53.3%

47.4%

FG%

◀

47.0

45.6%

114.1

PPG

114.9

114.7

25.1

Assists / G

25.0

▶

27.8

14.3

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

14.6

Data via ESPN · hoopR