UTAH
21-53
DEN
47-28
Recap · NBA
enver Nuggets held off Utah Jazz, 135–129.
UTAH +19.5 cashed (DEN won by 6). Total cleared the 247.5 OVER by 16.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
UTAH · top performer
Cody Williams
F · #5
24
Pts
0
Reb
7
Ast
DEN · top performer
Nikola Jokic
C · #15
33
Pts
15
Reb
12
Ast
NBA · Utah Jazz at Denver Nuggets · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 25 | 25 | 11-17 | 1-6 | 2-4 | +15 | 8 | 5 | |
| 30 | 24 | 9-14 | — | 6-7 | -1 | 0 | 7 | |
| 25 | 13 | 4-8 | 3-6 | 2-2 | +6 | 4 | 6 | |
| 41 | 11 | 4-16 | 2-9 | 1-1 | -9 | 4 | 2 | |
| 27 | 15 | 7-14 | 1-7 | — | -12 | 7 | 1 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 12 | 9 | 3-4 | — | 3-3 | +1 | 9 | 3 | |
| 30 | 16 | 8-10 | 0-1 | — | -4 | 8 | 2 | |
| 29 | 16 | 7-10 | 2-4 | 0-2 | -10 | 1 | 7 | |
| 19 | 0 | 0-2 | — | — | -16 | 2 | 1 | |
| Team | 129 | 53-95 | 9-33 | 14-19 | 43 | 34 | ||
| DNP: K. Love, S. Mykhailiuk, I. Collier | ||||||||
DNP: K. Love, S. Mykhailiuk, I. Collier
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 31 | 17 | 6-12 | 0-4 | 5-6 | +15 | 7 | 1 | |
| 26 | 12 | 4-11 | 4-11 | — | -3 | 4 | 0 | |
| 39 | 33 | 13-16 | 2-2 | 5-8 | +13 | 15 | 12 | |
| 39 | 31 | 9-18 | 5-10 | 8-8 | +8 | 6 | 14 | |
| 22 | 7 | 3-8 | 1-3 | — | -9 | 2 | 0 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 14 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | — | -8 | 6 | 0 | |
| 28 | 21 | 5-12 | 5-12 | 6-7 | +25 | 0 | 0 | |
| 15 | 7 | 3-5 | 1-2 | — | -5 | 3 | 1 | |
| 5 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-1 | — | -4 | 2 | 2 | |
| 21 | 7 | 2-10 | 1-2 | 2-3 | -2 | 5 | 4 | |
| Team | 135 | 45-95 | 19-48 | 26-32 | 50 | 34 | ||
| DNP: Z. Nnaji, D. Holmes II, J. Valanciunas, T. Jones, J. Pickett | ||||||||
DNP: Z. Nnaji, D. Holmes II, J. Valanciunas, T. Jones, J. Pickett
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
56
FG %
47
34
Ast
34
Season series
DEN leads series 3-0
UTAH112@DEN135DEN128@UTAH125UTAH129@DEN135todayDEN130@UTAH117Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
DEN -19.5
Between 10 and —
Total
247.5
High-scoring · +21.5 vs avg
Moneyline
UTAH+11008%DEN-210095%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 5 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
19.5
0.0 since open
Total
247.5
0.0 since open
Headlines · top performers
Biggest swing: 73pp · 4th Quarter · 4:13
UTAHC. Williams
FGame leader · 30 min
24 PTS · 0 REB · 7 AST
DENN. Jokic
CGame leader · 39 minTriple-double
33 PTS · 15 REB · 12 AST
How it ended
DEN beat UTAH 135-129. N. Jokic stuffed the line with 33 PTS, 15 REB, and 12 AST. DEN outscored the other side 37-24 in the 4th quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
DEN vs UTAH
Starters vs bench
production by unitUTAHstarters 68% of ptsStarters(5)
88 PTS · 23 REB · 21 AST
GS 68
Bench(4)
41 PTS · 20 REB · 13 AST
GS 48
DENstarters 74% of ptsStarters(5)
100 PTS · 34 REB · 27 AST
GS 91
Bench(5)
35 PTS · 16 REB · 7 AST
GS 25
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactNikola Jokic · misses alley oop layup
Cameron Johnson · makes 22-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jokic assists)
Cameron Johnson · personal foul
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTAH | 26 | 36 | 43 | 24 | 129 |
| DEN | 37 | 25 | 36 | 37 | 135 |
Period scoring
UTAH won 2 · DEN won 2
Q1
Filipowski 8
Murray 17
Q2
Sensabaugh 11
Johnson 6
Q3
Williams 14
Williams 20
Q4
Harkless 11
Jr. 11
Shooting comparison
56%
53-95
FG
47%
45-95
27%
9-33
3PT
40%
19-48
74%
14-19
FT
81%
26-32
Play-by-play · 471 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
UTAH 129·DEN 135
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
UTAH 129·DEN 135
+0.7pp
- Q4·13.1
Jamal Murray defensive rebound
UTAH 129·DEN 135
+0.6pp
- Q4·16.1
Ace Bailey misses 34-foot three point jumper
UTAH 129·DEN 135
+1pp
- Q4·17.9
Jazz Full timeout
UTAH 129·DEN 135
- Q4·18.7
Jamal Murray makes 27-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
UTAH 129·DEN 135
+7pp
- Q4·31.2
Elijah Harkless lost ball turnover (Jamal Murray steals)BIG MOMENT
·
UTAH 129·DEN 132
+8pp
- Q4·45.9
Cameron Johnson makes 22-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jokic assists)BIG MOMENT
·
UTAH 129·DEN 132
+19pp
- Q4·47.7
Nikola Jokic offensive rebound
UTAH 129·DEN 129
+5pp
- Q4·50.9
Tim Hardaway Jr. misses 23-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
UTAH 129·DEN 129
−7pp
- Q4·1:07
Elijah Harkless makes 26-foot three pointerBIG MOMENT
UTAH 129·DEN 129
−17pp
- Q4·1:15
Jamal Murray makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot (Nikola Jokic assists)BIG MOMENT
·
UTAH 126·DEN 129
+16pp
- Q4·1:28
Ace Bailey out of bounds bad pass turnoverBIG MOMENT
UTAH 126·DEN 126
+8pp
- Q4·1:37
Elijah Harkless defensive rebound
UTAH 126·DEN 126
- Q4·1:41
Nikola Jokic misses free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
UTAH 126·DEN 126
−8pp
- Q4·1:41
Nuggets offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
UTAH 126·DEN 126
−6pp
- Q4·1:41
Nikola Jokic misses free throw 1 of 2BIG MOMENT
UTAH 126·DEN 126
−6pp
- Q4·1:41
Bez Mbeng shooting foulBIG MOMENT
UTAH 126·DEN 126
+11pp
- Q4·1:54
Cameron Johnson defensive rebound
UTAH 126·DEN 126
+2pp
- Q4·1:58
Elijah Harkless misses 28-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
UTAH 126·DEN 126
+6pp
- Q4·2:20
Cameron Johnson makes 23-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jokic assists)BIG MOMENT
·
UTAH 126·DEN 126
+17pp
- Q4·2:34
Nikola Jokic defensive rebound
UTAH 126·DEN 123
+2pp
- Q4·2:37
Ace Bailey misses 14-foot step back jumpshotBIG MOMENT
UTAH 126·DEN 123
+5pp
- Q4·2:55
Nikola Jokic makes 9-foot turnaround jump shot (Jamal Murray assists)
·
UTAH 126·DEN 123
+2pp
- Q4·2:59
Jazz Full timeout
UTAH 126·DEN 121
- Q4·2:59
Nuggets offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
UTAH 126·DEN 121
+6pp
- Q4·2:59
Nikola Jokic misses 1-foot two point shotBIG MOMENT
UTAH 126·DEN 121
−7pp
- Q4·3:10
Nikola Jokic defensive rebound
UTAH 126·DEN 121
+2pp
- Q4·3:12
John Konchar misses 22-foot three point jumper
UTAH 126·DEN 121
+5pp
- Q4·3:24
Bez Mbeng defensive rebound
UTAH 126·DEN 121
−2pp
Team stats
UTAH
Away
Stat
DEN
Home
53-95
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
45-95
56
FG %
47
9-33
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
19-48
14-19
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
26-32
34
Assists
34
10
Turnovers
14
Betting line
DEN -19.5·O/U 247.5·UTAH +1100/DEN -2100
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 8 players in cohort- Nikola JokicDEN · CTOUCHES12399+
Jamal MurrayDEN · GTOUCHES82.296
Aaron GordonDEN · FCONT6.790
Cameron JohnsonDEN · FTS%62.986
Tim Hardaway Jr.DEN · GTS%62.483
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
38.2%
ensemble · UTAH favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DEN win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DEN win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DEN win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
DEN vs UTAH.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
175
projections · 145 high confidence
Points
- Nikola JokicDEN26.6± 7.0high
- Jamal MurrayDEN24.2± 8.1high
- Lauri MarkkanenUTAH24.2± 5.0high
Rebounds
- Nikola JokicDEN12.5± 3.1high
- Jusuf NurkicUTAH11.4± 4.1high
- Walker KesslerUTAH10.7± 2.2low
Assists
- Nikola JokicDEN9.7± 4.5high
- Isaiah CollierUTAH6.6± 2.5high
- Kennedy ChandlerUTAH6.5± 2.2medium
Blocks
- Walker KesslerUTAH1.8± 2.5low
- Jaren Jackson Jr.UTAH1.3± 1.3high
- Nikola JokicDEN1.0± 1.0high
Steals
- Bez MbengUTAH2.5± 1.7medium
- John KoncharUTAH1.9± 1.7high
- Elijah HarklessUTAH1.5± 1.4high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
hoopR-data
UTAH
league avg
DEN
53.6%
Effective FG%
54.4
▶57.2%
46.7%
FG%
47.0
▶49.2%
117.6
PPG
114.9
▶121.1
29.6
Assists / G
25.0
28.7
15.0
Turnovers / G
14.0
▶12.1