DAL
24-50
POR
37-38
Recap · NBA
allas Mavericks went into Portland Trail Blazers and beat them, 100–93.
DAL +10.5 cashed (POR lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 240.5 by 47.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
DAL · top performer
Marvin Bagley III
F · #35
26
Pts
9
Reb
3
Ast
POR · top performer
Jerami Grant
F · #9
19
Pts
4
Reb
0
Ast
NBA · Dallas Mavericks at Portland Trail Blazers · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 21 | 4 | 2-3 | — | 0-2 | +1 | 5 | 3 | |
| 27 | 5 | 2-6 | 1-2 | — | -7 | 5 | 0 | |
| 33 | 19 | 7-14 | 0-2 | 5-7 | +7 | 3 | 3 | |
| 38 | 24 | 9-17 | 0-1 | 6-6 | +3 | 3 | 2 | |
| 25 | 5 | 1-8 | 1-5 | 2-2 | -4 | 3 | 2 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 27 | 26 | 11-14 | 3-5 | 1-4 | +6 | 9 | 3 | |
| 9 | 0 | — | — | — | +3 | 3 | 0 | |
| 18 | 7 | 2-10 | 2-8 | 1-1 | +12 | 2 | 3 | |
| 20 | 10 | 2-6 | 0-1 | 6-8 | +7 | 1 | 5 | |
| 12 | 0 | 0-1 | — | — | +8 | 3 | 2 | |
| 10 | 0 | 0-2 | — | — | -1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Team | 100 | 36-81 | 7-24 | 21-30 | 37 | 24 | ||
| DNP: K. Middleton | ||||||||
DNP: K. Middleton
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 29 | 19 | 4-8 | 2-4 | 9-12 | -4 | 4 | 0 | |
| 39 | 8 | 3-9 | 2-6 | — | -2 | 5 | 3 | |
| 38 | 20 | 8-15 | 0-3 | 4-9 | -8 | 9 | 6 | |
| 32 | 6 | 2-9 | 0-1 | 2-4 | -4 | 17 | 0 | |
| 35 | 23 | 8-19 | 3-9 | 4-4 | +5 | 4 | 3 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 12 | 0 | — | — | — | -3 | 0 | 0 | |
| 11 | 4 | 2-3 | — | — | -2 | 5 | 0 | |
| 16 | 4 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 22 | 9 | 3-11 | 1-5 | 2-2 | -12 | 2 | 3 | |
| 8 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-1 | — | -5 | 2 | 0 | |
| Team | 93 | 31-79 | 8-30 | 23-33 | 48 | 16 | ||
| DNP: D. Lillard, C. Love, V. Krejci, B. Wesley, S. Sharpe | ||||||||
DNP: D. Lillard, C. Love, V. Krejci, B. Wesley, S. Sharpe
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
44
FG %
39
24
Ast
16
Season series
DAL wins series 2-1
POR133@DAL138DAL122@POR125DAL100@POR93todayVegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
POR -10.5
Half-pt above key 10
Total
240.5
High-scoring · +14.5 vs avg
Moneyline
DAL+38021%POR-50083%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 5 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
10.5
0.0 since open
Total
240.5
0.0 since open
Headlines · top performers
Biggest swing: 22pp · 2nd Quarter · 9:15
DALM. Bagley III
FGame leader · 27 min
26 PTS · 9 REB · 3 AST
PORJ. Grant
FGame leader · 29 min
19 PTS · 4 REB · 0 AST
How it ended
DAL beat POR 100-93. M. Bagley III paced them with 26 PTS, 9 REB, 3 AST. DAL outscored the other side 32-22 in the 1st quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
POR vs DAL
Starters vs bench
production by unitDALstarters 57% of ptsStarters(5)
57 PTS · 19 REB · 10 AST
GS 43
Bench(6)
43 PTS · 18 REB · 14 AST
GS 32
PORstarters 82% of ptsStarters(5)
76 PTS · 39 REB · 12 AST
GS 51
Bench(5)
17 PTS · 9 REB · 4 AST
GS 6
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactRobert Williams III · misses 3-foot tip shot
Dwight Powell · bad pass turnover (Scoot Henderson steals)
Jrue Holiday · makes 22-foot three point jumper (Scoot Henderson assists)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 32 | 24 | 23 | 21 | 100 |
| POR | 22 | 29 | 25 | 17 | 93 |
Period scoring
DAL won 2 · POR won 2
Q1
III 11
Holiday 6
Q2
Flagg 12
Holiday 8
Q3
III 10
Grant 6
Q4
Williams 7
Avdija 10
Shooting comparison
44%
36-81
FG
39%
31-79
29%
7-24
3PT
27%
8-30
70%
21-30
FT
70%
23-33
Play-by-play · 501 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
DAL 100·POR 93
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
DAL 100·POR 93
- Q4·8.7
P.J. Washington defensive rebound
DAL 100·POR 93
- Q4·11.7
Scoot Henderson misses 30-foot three point pullup jump shot
DAL 100·POR 93
−0.9pp
- Q4·15.9
Brandon Williams makes free throw 2 of 2
DAL 100·POR 93
+0.7pp
- Q4·15.9
Brandon Williams makes free throw 1 of 2
DAL 99·POR 93
- Q4·15.9
Toumani Camara personal take foul
DAL 98·POR 93
−2pp
- Q4·16.8
Deni Avdija makes free throw 2 of 2
DAL 98·POR 93
- Q4·16.8
Trail Blazers offensive team rebound
DAL 98·POR 92
−3pp
- Q4·16.8
Deni Avdija misses free throw 1 of 2
DAL 98·POR 92
−4pp
- Q4·16.8
Naji Marshall shooting foulBIG MOMENT
DAL 98·POR 92
+6pp
- Q4·19.9
Naji Marshall makes free throw 2 of 2
DAL 98·POR 92
+0.5pp
- Q4·19.9
Mavericks offensive team rebound
DAL 97·POR 92
+1pp
- Q4·19.9
Naji Marshall misses free throw 1 of 2
DAL 97·POR 92
+0.8pp
- Q4·19.9
Deni Avdija personal take foul
DAL 97·POR 92
−2pp
- Q4·20.9
Naji Marshall defensive rebound
DAL 97·POR 92
−1pp
- Q4·22.6
Jrue Holiday misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshot
DAL 97·POR 92
−4pp
- Q4·26.4
Matisse Thybulle enters the game for Donovan Clingan
·
DAL 97·POR 92
- Q4·26.4
Trail Blazers Full timeout
DAL 97·POR 92
- Q4·26.4
Trail Blazers defensive team rebound
DAL 97·POR 92
- Q4·27.2
Brandon Williams misses free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
DAL 97·POR 92
+6pp
- Q4·27.2
Brandon Williams makes free throw 1 of 2
DAL 97·POR 92
−0.6pp
- Q4·27.2
Scoot Henderson personal take foulBIG MOMENT
DAL 96·POR 92
−5pp
- Q4·33.5
Deni Avdija bad pass turnover (Cooper Flagg steals)BIG MOMENT
·
DAL 96·POR 92
−8pp
- Q4·44.1
Marvin Bagley III makes dunk (Brandon Williams assists)BIG MOMENT
· ·
DAL 96·POR 92
−6pp
- Q4·57.7
Mavericks defensive team rebound
DAL 94·POR 92
−2pp
- Q4·58.2
Jrue Holiday misses 25-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
DAL 94·POR 92
−8pp
- Q4·1:15
Marvin Bagley III offensive foul turnover
·
DAL 94·POR 92
- Q4·1:15
Marvin Bagley III offensive foulBIG MOMENT
·
DAL 94·POR 92
+8pp
- Q4·1:19
Cooper Flagg offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
DAL 94·POR 92
−7pp
Team stats
DAL
Away
Stat
POR
Home
36-81
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
31-79
44
FG %
39
7-24
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
8-30
21-30
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
23-33
24
Assists
16
17
Turnovers
24
Betting line
POR -10.5·O/U 240.5·DAL +380/POR -500
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 8 players in cohort
Deni AvdijaPOR · FDRIVES20.899+
Robert Williams IIIPOR · CTS%72.299+
Jrue HolidayPOR · GTOUCHES84.697
Donovan ClinganPOR · CCONT7.694
Toumani CamaraPOR · FCONT6.489
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
38.2%
ensemble · DAL favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(POR win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(POR win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(POR win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
POR vs DAL.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
180
projections · 160 high confidence
Points
- Deni AvdijaPOR25.3± 7.7high
- Cooper FlaggDAL23.6± 14.0high
- Kyrie IrvingDAL23.4± 13.6high
Rebounds
- Donovan ClinganPOR10.3± 2.7high
- Daniel GaffordDAL7.8± 3.6high
- Moussa CisseDAL7.8± 4.7high
Assists
- Deni AvdijaPOR6.3± 3.2high
- Jrue HolidayPOR6.3± 3.0high
- Ryan NembhardDAL6.2± 5.9high
Blocks
- Dereck Lively IIDAL1.6± 1.3low
- Donovan ClinganPOR1.5± 1.2high
- Moussa CisseDAL1.2± 1.2high
Steals
- Matisse ThybullePOR1.7± 1.8high
- Cooper FlaggDAL1.4± 1.4high
- Kyrie IrvingDAL1.4± 1.1high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
hoopR-data
DAL
league avg
POR
52.7%
Effective FG%
54.4
53.0%
46.6%
FG%
47.0
45.1%
114.1
PPG
114.9
114.6
25.3
Assists / G
25.0
25.0
14.0
Turnovers / G
14.0
16.2