MIA
39-35
CLE
46-28
Recap · NBA
leveland Cavaliers held off Miami Heat, 149–128. It was a wire-to-wire rout.
CLE -5.5 cashed (won by 21). Total cleared the 240.5 OVER by 36.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
MIA · top performer
Kel'el Ware
C · #7
14
Pts
8
Reb
1
Ast
CLE · top performer
Max Strus
G · #2
29
Pts
8
Reb
1
Ast
NBA · Miami Heat at Cleveland Cavaliers · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 20 | 12 | 3-5 | 3-3 | 3-4 | -15 | 1 | 0 | |
| 31 | 14 | 3-14 | 1-8 | 7-8 | -18 | 16 | 3 | |
| 25 | 15 | 5-10 | 2-5 | 3-3 | -12 | 3 | 2 | |
| 24 | 2 | 1-6 | 0-4 | — | -22 | 4 | 4 | |
| 31 | 11 | 4-13 | 1-4 | 2-2 | -23 | 3 | 5 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 10 | 12 | 4-7 | 2-4 | 2-2 | -6 | 2 | 0 | |
| 7 | 3 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 1-2 | +1 | 0 | 1 | |
| 5 | 1 | — | — | 1-2 | +6 | 0 | 0 | |
| 21 | 20 | 9-13 | 2-5 | 0-1 | -7 | 2 | 3 | |
| 21 | 14 | 5-10 | 2-4 | 2-2 | -6 | 8 | 1 | |
| 26 | 10 | 2-4 | 0-2 | 6-6 | -10 | 3 | 5 | |
| 19 | 14 | 3-6 | 2-5 | 6-6 | +7 | 3 | 1 | |
| Team | 128 | 40-91 | 15-46 | 33-38 | 45 | 25 | ||
| DNP: N. Jovic, D. Smith | ||||||||
DNP: N. Jovic, D. Smith
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 18 | 18 | 8-10 | — | 2-2 | +18 | 10 | 0 | |
| 29 | 23 | 10-15 | 1-2 | 2-2 | +15 | 10 | 3 | |
| 30 | 17 | 4-11 | 2-6 | 7-7 | +25 | 5 | 14 | |
| 31 | 6 | 1-10 | 0-3 | 4-4 | +14 | 4 | 6 | |
| 27 | 10 | 3-9 | 2-7 | 2-2 | +25 | 3 | 4 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 4 | 4 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 1-2 | -7 | 1 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | — | — | 1-2 | -7 | 0 | 0 | |
| 6 | 0 | — | — | — | -3 | 0 | 1 | |
| 5 | 6 | 2-3 | 2-2 | — | -6 | 0 | 1 | |
| 14 | 11 | 5-10 | 1-4 | — | 0 | 4 | 0 | |
| 20 | 8 | 3-7 | 0-1 | 2-3 | +3 | 0 | 5 | |
| 23 | 29 | 10-14 | 8-11 | 1-2 | +22 | 8 | 1 | |
| 25 | 10 | 4-5 | 2-3 | 0-1 | +9 | 0 | 2 | |
| 6 | 6 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 4-4 | -3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Team | 149 | 52-97 | 19-41 | 26-31 | 46 | 38 | ||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
44
FG %
54
25
Ast
38
Season series
Series tied 2-2
CLE138@MIA140CLE130@MIA116MIA120@CLE103MIA128@CLE149todayVegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
CLE -5.5
Half-pt above key 5
Total
240.5
High-scoring · +14.5 vs avg
Moneyline
MIA+18036%CLE-21869%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 5 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
5.5
0.0 since open
Total
240.5
0.0 since open
Headlines · top performers
Biggest swing: 9pp · 2nd Quarter · 9:55
MIAK. Ware
CGame leader · 21 min
14 PTS · 8 REB · 1 AST
CLEM. Strus
GGame leader · 23 min
29 PTS · 8 REB · 1 AST
How it ended
CLE beat MIA 149-128. M. Strus paced them with 29 PTS, 8 REB, 1 AST. CLE outscored the other side 41-19 in the 2nd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
CLE vs MIA
Starters vs bench
production by unitMIAstarters 42% of ptsStarters(5)
54 PTS · 27 REB · 14 AST
GS 37
Bench(7)
74 PTS · 18 REB · 11 AST
GS 63
CLEstarters 50% of ptsStarters(5)
74 PTS · 32 REB · 27 AST
GS 76
Bench(9)
75 PTS · 14 REB · 11 AST
GS 57
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactBam Adebayo · lost ball turnover (Dennis Schroder steals)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | 27 | 19 | 41 | 41 | 128 |
| CLE | 40 | 41 | 28 | 40 | 149 |
Period scoring
MIA won 2 · CLE won 2
Q1
Jr. 6
Strus 12
Q2
Adebayo 5
Mobley 21
Q3
Wiggins 8
Ellis 5
Q4
Fontecchio 12
Mobley 12
Shooting comparison
44%
40-91
FG
54%
52-97
33%
15-46
3PT
46%
19-41
87%
33-38
FT
84%
26-31
Play-by-play · 518 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
MIA 128·CLE 149
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
MIA 128·CLE 149
- Q4·10.7
Myron Gardner makes 1-foot two point shot
MIA 128·CLE 149
- Q4·20.0
Cavaliers delay of game violation
MIA 126·CLE 149
- Q4·20.0
Olivier Sarr makes free throw 2 of 2
MIA 126·CLE 149
- Q4·20.0
Cavaliers offensive team rebound
MIA 126·CLE 148
- Q4·20.0
Olivier Sarr misses free throw 1 of 2
MIA 126·CLE 148
- Q4·20.0
Kasparas Jakucionis loose ball foul
MIA 126·CLE 148
- Q4·23.4
Larry Nance Jr. defensive rebound
MIA 126·CLE 148
- Q4·30.6
Kasparas Jakucionis misses 26-foot three point jumper
MIA 126·CLE 148
- Q4·40.7
Riley Minix makes 23-foot three point jumper (Larry Nance Jr. assists)
·
MIA 126·CLE 148
- Q4·56.7
Kel'el Ware makes free throw 2 of 2
MIA 126·CLE 145
- Q4·56.7
Kel'el Ware makes free throw 1 of 2
MIA 125·CLE 145
- Q4·56.7
Olivier Sarr shooting foul
MIA 124·CLE 145
- Q4·57.4
Kel'el Ware offensive rebound
MIA 124·CLE 145
- Q4·1:02
Myron Gardner misses 22-foot three point jumper
MIA 124·CLE 145
- Q4·1:12
Tyrese Proctor makes free throw 2 of 2
MIA 124·CLE 145
- Q4·1:12
Tyrese Proctor makes free throw 1 of 2
MIA 124·CLE 144
- Q4·1:12
Myron Gardner personal foul
MIA 124·CLE 143
- Q4·1:16
Kasparas Jakucionis makes free throw 2 of 2
MIA 124·CLE 143
- Q4·1:16
Kasparas Jakucionis makes free throw 1 of 2
MIA 123·CLE 143
- Q4·1:16
Nae'Qwan Tomlin personal foul
MIA 122·CLE 143
- Q4·1:23
Larry Nance Jr. makes 22-foot three point jumper (Riley Minix assists)
·
MIA 122·CLE 143
- Q4·1:33
Simone Fontecchio makes 25-foot three point jumper (Myron Gardner assists)
·
MIA 122·CLE 140
- Q4·1:33
Riley Minix bad pass turnover (Myron Gardner steals)
·
MIA 119·CLE 140
- Q4·1:37
Keshad Johnson makes free throw 2 of 2
MIA 119·CLE 140
- Q4·1:37
Heat offensive team rebound
MIA 118·CLE 140
- Q4·1:37
Keshad Johnson misses free throw 1 of 2
MIA 118·CLE 140
- Q4·1:37
Olivier Sarr shooting foul
MIA 118·CLE 140
- Q4·1:39
Simone Fontecchio defensive rebound
MIA 118·CLE 140
Team stats
MIA
Away
Stat
CLE
Home
40-91
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
52-97
44
FG %
54
15-46
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
19-41
33-38
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
26-31
25
Assists
38
13
Turnovers
9
Betting line
CLE -5.5·O/U 240.5·MIA +180/CLE -218
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 7 players in cohort
Donovan MitchellCLE · GUSG%31.998
Jarrett AllenCLE · CCONT9.898
Evan MobleyCLE · CCONT9.498
James HardenCLE · GDRIVES12.692
Sam MerrillCLE · GTS%64.491
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
38.2%
ensemble · MIA favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CLE win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
CLE vs MIA.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
175
projections · 145 high confidence
Points
- Donovan MitchellCLE27.5± 7.3high
- James HardenCLE19.6± 6.6high
- Tyler HerroMIA19.2± 8.0high
Rebounds
- Bam AdebayoMIA10.3± 3.7high
- Kel'el WareMIA8.8± 6.0high
- Evan MobleyCLE8.0± 3.5high
Assists
- James HardenCLE5.9± 2.8high
- Davion MitchellMIA5.9± 2.8high
- Tyler HerroMIA4.6± 1.9high
Blocks
- Evan MobleyCLE2.1± 1.3high
- Jarrett AllenCLE1.3± 0.7high
- Kel'el WareMIA1.3± 2.5high
Steals
- Donovan MitchellCLE1.5± 1.8high
- James HardenCLE1.4± 1.2high
- Dru SmithMIA1.3± 1.8high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
hoopR-data
MIA
league avg
CLE
54.2%
Effective FG%
54.4
▶55.6%
46.8%
FG%
47.0
▶47.7%
120.9
PPG
114.9
117.4
29.0
Assists / G
25.0
27.1
13.0
Turnovers / G
14.0
13.8