LAC
38-36
IND
16-58
Recap · NBA
A Clippers went into Indiana Pacers and beat them, 114–113. It came down to the final possession.
IND +8.5 cashed (LAC won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 235.5 by 8.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
LAC · top performer
Kawhi Leonard
F · #2
28
Pts
8
Reb
4
Ast
IND · top performer
Obi Toppin
F · #1
20
Pts
8
Reb
4
Ast
NBA · LA Clippers at Indiana Pacers · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 35 | 28 | 13-26 | 1-6 | 1-2 | +17 | 8 | 4 | |
| 20 | 5 | 2-6 | 1-1 | — | -7 | 6 | 1 | |
| 26 | 4 | 2-7 | 0-1 | — | -5 | 3 | 3 | |
| 33 | 16 | 6-11 | 3-6 | 1-1 | +10 | 9 | 4 | |
| 35 | 30 | 10-19 | 6-11 | 4-4 | +2 | 0 | 5 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 14 | 3 | 1-5 | 1-4 | — | -3 | 5 | 0 | |
| 14 | 4 | 2-2 | — | 0-2 | -6 | 4 | 0 | |
| 21 | 2 | 1-6 | 0-2 | — | -3 | 3 | 1 | |
| 13 | 5 | 2-6 | — | 1-3 | -2 | 1 | 1 | |
| 29 | 17 | 2-8 | 1-3 | 12-15 | +2 | 7 | 1 | |
| Team | 114 | 41-96 | 13-34 | 19-27 | 46 | 20 | ||
| DNP: B. Bogdanovic, K. Sanders, S. Pedulla, C. Christie | ||||||||
DNP: B. Bogdanovic, K. Sanders, S. Pedulla, C. Christie
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 33 | 11 | 4-16 | 0-3 | 3-4 | -6 | 6 | 3 | |
| 4 | 5 | 2-3 | 1-1 | — | +6 | 1 | 1 | |
| 20 | 3 | 1-4 | 1-3 | 0-2 | -6 | 3 | 4 | |
| 32 | 13 | 4-13 | 2-7 | 3-3 | +8 | 1 | 10 | |
| 35 | 26 | 10-14 | 4-5 | 2-2 | -11 | 7 | 2 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 23 | 20 | 8-11 | 4-7 | — | +6 | 8 | 4 | |
| 4 | 0 | 0-1 | — | — | -2 | 0 | 1 | |
| 16 | 13 | 5-8 | 2-3 | 1-2 | +6 | 7 | 0 | |
| 13 | 2 | 1-1 | — | — | -2 | 3 | 3 | |
| 27 | 11 | 4-8 | 1-4 | 2-2 | +5 | 4 | 3 | |
| 19 | 2 | 1-3 | 0-2 | — | -13 | 3 | 0 | |
| 13 | 7 | 3-5 | 1-1 | — | +4 | 2 | 3 | |
| Team | 113 | 43-87 | 16-36 | 11-15 | 45 | 34 | ||
| DNP: E. Thompson, K. Jones, T. Peter | ||||||||
DNP: E. Thompson, K. Jones, T. Peter
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
43
FG %
49
20
Ast
34
Season series
LAC win series 2-0
IND107@LAC130LAC114@IND113todayVegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
LAC -8.5
Between 7 and 10
Total
235.5
High-scoring · +9.5 vs avg
Moneyline
LAC-38079%IND+30025%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 5 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
8.5
0.0 since open
Total
235.5
0.0 since open
Headlines · top performers
Biggest swing: 81pp · 4th Quarter · 1.0
LACK. Leonard
FGame leader · 35 min30+ minutes, 0 turnovers
28 PTS · 8 REB · 4 AST
INDO. Toppin
FGame leader · 23 min
20 PTS · 8 REB · 4 AST
How it ended
LAC beat IND 114-113. K. Leonard paced them with 28 PTS, 8 REB, 4 AST. IND outscored the other side 42-21 in the 1st quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
IND vs LAC
Starters vs bench
production by unitLACstarters 73% of ptsStarters(5)
83 PTS · 26 REB · 17 AST
GS 68
Bench(5)
31 PTS · 20 REB · 3 AST
GS 22
INDstarters 51% of ptsStarters(5)
58 PTS · 18 REB · 20 AST
GS 35
Bench(7)
55 PTS · 27 REB · 14 AST
GS 53
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactBen Sheppard · loose ball foul
Kawhi Leonard · makes 7-foot pullup jump shot (Bennedict Mathurin assists)
Brook Lopez · loose ball foul
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC | 21 | 29 | 36 | 28 | 114 |
| IND | 42 | 18 | 28 | 25 | 113 |
Period scoring
LAC won 3 · IND won 1
Q1
Garland 6
Nesmith 8
Q2
Leonard 8
Siakam 7
Q3
Lopez 8
Nesmith 10
Q4
Garland 15
Toppin 9
Shooting comparison
43%
41-96
FG
49%
43-87
38%
13-34
3PT
44%
16-36
70%
19-27
FT
73%
11-15
Play-by-play · 500 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
LAC 114·IND 113
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
LAC 114·IND 113
- Q4·0.1
Pacers offensive team rebound
LAC 114·IND 113
- Q4·0.1
Jay Huff misses free throw 2 of 2
LAC 114·IND 113
- Q4·0.1
Pacers offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
LAC 114·IND 113
−37pp
- Q4·0.1
Jay Huff misses free throw 1 of 2BIG MOMENT
LAC 114·IND 113
−38pp
- Q4·0.1
Brook Lopez loose ball foulBIG MOMENT
LAC 114·IND 113
+75pp
- Q4·0.1
Jay Huff enters the game for Quenton Jackson
· ·
LAC 114·IND 113
- Q4·0.1
Pacers Full timeout
LAC 114·IND 113
−1pp
- Q4·0.4
Pascal Siakam defensive rebound
LAC 114·IND 113
- Q4·0.4
Bennedict Mathurin misses free throw 2 of 2
LAC 114·IND 113
+0.7pp
- Q4·0.4
Clippers offensive team rebound
LAC 114·IND 113
- Q4·0.4
Bennedict Mathurin misses free throw 1 of 2
LAC 114·IND 113
−0.7pp
- Q4·0.4
(00:00.4) [Clippers] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)
LAC 114·IND 113
+1pp
- Q4·0.4
Aaron Nesmith personal take foul
LAC 114·IND 113
−1pp
- Q4·0.4
Quenton Jackson enters the game for Jay Huff
· ·
LAC 114·IND 113
+0.7pp
- Q4·0.4
Andrew Nembhard inbound turnover
LAC 114·IND 113
−0.7pp
- Q4·0.4
Nicolas Batum enters the game for Darius Garland
·
LAC 114·IND 113
- Q4·0.4
Obi Toppin enters the game for Ben Sheppard
·
LAC 114·IND 113
- Q4·0.4
Pacers Full timeout
LAC 114·IND 113
−3pp
- Q4·1.0
Kawhi Leonard makes 7-foot pullup jump shot (Bennedict Mathurin assists)BIG MOMENT
·
LAC 114·IND 113
−81pp
- Q4·3.0
Jay Huff enters the game for Obi Toppin
·
LAC 112·IND 113
- Q4·3.0
Clippers Full timeoutBIG MOMENT
LAC 112·IND 113
+20pp
- Q4·7.1
Brook Lopez defensive reboundBIG MOMENT
LAC 112·IND 113
+8pp
- Q4·9.7
Pascal Siakam misses 11-foot two point shotBIG MOMENT
LAC 112·IND 113
−7pp
- Q4·31.3
Darius Garland makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
LAC 112·IND 113
+11pp
- Q4·31.3
Darius Garland makes free throw 1 of 2
LAC 111·IND 113
−3pp
- Q4·31.3
Ben Sheppard loose ball foulBIG MOMENT
LAC 110·IND 113
−18pp
- Q4·31.3
Clippers defensive team rebound
LAC 110·IND 113
−2pp
- Q4·33.7
Aaron Nesmith misses 30-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
LAC 110·IND 113
−5pp
Team stats
LAC
Away
Stat
IND
Home
41-96
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
43-87
43
FG %
49
13-34
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
16-36
19-27
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
11-15
20
Assists
34
11
Turnovers
20
Betting line
LAC -8.5·O/U 235.5·LAC -380/IND +300
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
38.2%
ensemble · LAC favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
IND vs LAC.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
180
projections · 155 high confidence
Points
- Kawhi LeonardLAC25.5± 4.3high
- Pascal SiakamIND23.8± 7.9high
- Darius GarlandLAC19.0± 5.5high
Rebounds
- Ivica ZubacIND9.5± 4.1high
- Kawhi LeonardLAC6.5± 1.4high
- Micah PotterIND6.1± 4.5high
Assists
- Andrew NembhardIND8.5± 4.7high
- Tyrese HaliburtonIND8.1± 4.3high
- Darius GarlandLAC6.3± 2.3high
Blocks
- Jay HuffIND1.9± 1.9high
- Brook LopezLAC1.3± 1.4high
- Yanic Konan NiederhauserLAC1.3± 1.5high
Steals
- Tyrese HaliburtonIND1.6± 1.3high
- Kris DunnLAC1.6± 1.1high
- Jalen SlawsonIND1.5± 1.7medium
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
hoopR-data
LAC
league avg
IND
55.9%
Effective FG%
54.4
53.3%
48.5%
FG%
47.0
45.8%
113.9
PPG
114.9
112.4
23.8
Assists / G
25.0
▶27.7
13.6
Turnovers / G
14.0
13.8