NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+1LAC

LAC

38-36

114113

IND

16-58

NBAFri, Mar 27FinalSeriesLAC win series 2-0VegasLAC -8.5

LAC · top performer

Kawhi Leonard

F · #2

22.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

IND · top performer

Obi Toppin

F · #1

19.7Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowLAC ↔ IND

Biggest swing: 81pp · 4th Quarter · 1.0

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. LeonardF · #2	35	28	13-26	1-6	1-2	+17	8	4
J. CollinsF · #20	20	5	2-6	1-1	—	-7	6	1
D. Jones Jr.F · #5	26	4	2-7	0-1	—	-5	3	3
B. LopezC · #11	33	16	6-11	3-6	1-1	+10	9	4
D. GarlandG · #10	35	30	10-19	6-11	4-4	+2	0	5
Bench
N. BatumF · #33	14	3	1-5	1-4	—	-3	5	0
I. JacksonF · #23	14	4	2-2	—	0-2	-6	4	0
K. DunnG · #8	21	2	1-6	0-2	—	-3	3	1
J. MillerG · #22	13	5	2-6	—	1-3	-2	1	1
B. MathurinG · #9	29	17	2-8	1-3	12-15	+2	7	1
Team		114	41-96	13-34	19-27		46	20
DNP: B. Bogdanovic, K. Sanders, S. Pedulla, C. Christie

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
P. SiakamF · #43	33	11	4-16	0-3	3-4	-6	6	3
J. WalkerF · #5	4	5	2-3	1-1	—	+6	1	1
J. HuffC · #32	20	3	1-4	1-3	0-2	-6	3	4
A. NembhardG · #2	32	13	4-13	2-7	3-3	+8	1	10
A. NesmithG · #23	35	26	10-14	4-5	2-2	-11	7	2
Bench
O. ToppinF · #1	23	20	8-11	4-7	—	+6	8	4
J. SlawsonF · #18	4	0	0-1	—	—	-2	0	1
M. PotterC · #11	16	13	5-8	2-3	1-2	+6	7	0
T.J. McConnellG · #9	13	2	1-1	—	—	-2	3	3
K. BrownG · #24	27	11	4-8	1-4	2-2	+5	4	3
B. SheppardG · #26	19	2	1-3	0-2	—	-13	3	0
Q. JacksonG · #29	13	7	3-5	1-1	—	+4	2	3
Team		113	43-87	16-36	11-15		45	34
DNP: E. Thompson, K. Jones, T. Peter

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

LAC

Away

Stat

IND

Home

41-96

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

43-87

FG %

13-34

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

16-36

19-27

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

11-15

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

LAC win series 2-0

Mar 5

IND107@

LAC130

Mar 27

LAC114@

IND113today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LAC -8.5

Between 7 and 10

Total

235.5

High-scoring · +9.5 vs avg

Moneyline

LAC-38079%

IND+30025%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LAC -8.5↗SpreadBet LAC -8.5↗

Line movement · 17 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

8.5

0.0 since open

Total

235.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

LAC beat IND 114-113. K. Leonard paced them with 28 PTS, 8 REB, 4 AST. IND outscored the other side 42-21 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

IND vs LAC

Starters vs bench

production by unit

LACstarters 73% of pts

Starters(5)

83 PTS · 26 REB · 17 AST

GS 68

Bench(5)

31 PTS · 20 REB · 3 AST

GS 22

INDstarters 51% of pts

Starters(5)

58 PTS · 18 REB · 20 AST

GS 35

Bench(7)

55 PTS · 27 REB · 14 AST

GS 53

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

LAC4th Quarter · 31.3 · 110-113

+18pp→ 43% WP

Ben Sheppard · loose ball foul

LAC4th Quarter · 1.0 · 114-113

+81pp→ 96% WP

Kawhi Leonard · makes 7-foot pullup jump shot (Bennedict Mathurin assists)

IND4th Quarter · 0.1 · 114-113

+75pp→ 75% WP

Brook Lopez · loose ball foul

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
LAC	21	29	36	28	114
IND	42	18	28	25	113

Period scoring

LAC won 3 · IND won 1

Garland 6

Nesmith 8

Leonard 8

Siakam 7

Lopez 8

Nesmith 10

Garland 15

Toppin 9

LAC

IND

Shooting comparison

LAC

IND

43%

41-96

49%

43-87

38%

13-34

3PT

44%

16-36

70%

19-27

73%

11-15

Play-by-play · 500 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
LAC 114·IND 113
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
LAC 114·IND 113
Q4·0.1
Pacers offensive team rebound
LAC 114·IND 113
Q4·0.1
Jay Huff misses free throw 2 of 2
LAC 114·IND 113
Q4·0.1
Pacers offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
LAC 114·IND 113
−37pp
Q4·0.1
Jay Huff misses free throw 1 of 2BIG MOMENT
LAC 114·IND 113
−38pp
Q4·0.1
Brook Lopez loose ball foulBIG MOMENT
LAC 114·IND 113
+75pp
Q4·0.1
Jay Huff enters the game for Quenton Jackson
· ·
LAC 114·IND 113
Q4·0.1
Pacers Full timeout
LAC 114·IND 113
−1pp
Q4·0.4
Pascal Siakam defensive rebound
LAC 114·IND 113
Q4·0.4
Bennedict Mathurin misses free throw 2 of 2
LAC 114·IND 113
+0.7pp
Q4·0.4
Clippers offensive team rebound
LAC 114·IND 113
Q4·0.4
Bennedict Mathurin misses free throw 1 of 2
LAC 114·IND 113
−0.7pp
Q4·0.4
(00:00.4) [Clippers] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)
LAC 114·IND 113
+1pp
Q4·0.4
Aaron Nesmith personal take foul
LAC 114·IND 113
−1pp
Q4·0.4
Quenton Jackson enters the game for Jay Huff
· ·
LAC 114·IND 113
+0.7pp
Q4·0.4
Andrew Nembhard inbound turnover
LAC 114·IND 113
−0.7pp
Q4·0.4
Nicolas Batum enters the game for Darius Garland
·
LAC 114·IND 113
Q4·0.4
Obi Toppin enters the game for Ben Sheppard
·
LAC 114·IND 113
Q4·0.4
Pacers Full timeout
LAC 114·IND 113
−3pp
Q4·1.0
Kawhi Leonard makes 7-foot pullup jump shot (Bennedict Mathurin assists)BIG MOMENT
·
LAC 114·IND 113
−81pp
Q4·3.0
Jay Huff enters the game for Obi Toppin
·
LAC 112·IND 113
Q4·3.0
Clippers Full timeoutBIG MOMENT
LAC 112·IND 113
+20pp
Q4·7.1
Brook Lopez defensive reboundBIG MOMENT
LAC 112·IND 113
+8pp
Q4·9.7
Pascal Siakam misses 11-foot two point shotBIG MOMENT
LAC 112·IND 113
−7pp
Q4·31.3
Darius Garland makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
LAC 112·IND 113
+11pp
Q4·31.3
Darius Garland makes free throw 1 of 2
LAC 111·IND 113
−3pp
Q4·31.3
Ben Sheppard loose ball foulBIG MOMENT
LAC 110·IND 113
−18pp
Q4·31.3
Clippers defensive team rebound
LAC 110·IND 113
−2pp
Q4·33.7
Aaron Nesmith misses 30-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
LAC 110·IND 113
−5pp

Betting line

LAC -8.5·O/U 235.5·LAC -380/IND +300

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

A Clippers went into Indiana Pacers and beat them, 114–113. It came down to the final possession.

IND +8.5 cashed (LAC won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 235.5 by 8.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Kawhi LeonardLAC · F
USG%33.399
Andrew NembhardIND · G
TOUCHES87.498
Kris DunnLAC · G
DEFL3.697
Jay HuffIND · C
CONT8.796
Darius GarlandLAC · G
DRIVES13.896

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.0%

ensemble · IND favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
34%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
33%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

IND vs LAC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

155

projections · 140 high confidence

Points

Kawhi LeonardLAC
25.5± 4.3high
Pascal SiakamIND
23.8± 7.9high
Darius GarlandLAC
19.0± 5.5high

Rebounds

Ivica ZubacIND
9.5± 4.1high
Kawhi LeonardLAC
6.5± 1.4high
Pascal SiakamIND
6.1± 2.4high

Assists

Andrew NembhardIND
8.5± 4.7high
Tyrese HaliburtonIND
8.1± 4.3high
Darius GarlandLAC
6.3± 2.3high

Blocks

Jay HuffIND
1.9± 1.9high
Brook LopezLAC
1.3± 1.4high
Yanic Konan NiederhauserLAC
1.3± 1.5high

Steals

Tyrese HaliburtonIND
1.6± 1.3high
Kris DunnLAC
1.6± 1.1high
Jalen SlawsonIND
1.5± 1.7medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

LAC

league avg

IND

55.9%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

53.3%

48.5%

FG%

◀

47.0

45.8%

113.9

PPG

◀

114.9

112.4

23.8

Assists / G

25.0

▶

27.7

13.6

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

13.8

Team pages

LA ClippersIndiana Pacers

Elsewhere in the NBA

Data via ESPN · hoopR