CHI
29-44
OKC
58-16
Recap · NBA
klahoma City Thunder held off Chicago Bulls, 131–113.
CHI +18.5 cashed (OKC won by 18). Total cleared the 241.5 OVER by 2.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
CHI · top performer
Tre Jones
G · #30
21
Pts
7
Reb
9
Ast
OKC · top performer
Cason Wallace
G · #22
21
Pts
5
Reb
2
Ast
NBA · Chicago Bulls at Oklahoma City Thunder · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 22 | 6 | 2-6 | 2-5 | — | -16 | 4 | 1 | |
| 31 | 20 | 7-13 | 3-5 | 3-3 | -14 | 4 | 0 | |
| 34 | 15 | 6-13 | 1-7 | 2-2 | -9 | 9 | 0 | |
| 26 | 21 | 8-12 | 1-3 | 4-4 | -13 | 7 | 9 | |
| 33 | 5 | 1-11 | 0-8 | 3-4 | -20 | 7 | 11 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 18 | 4 | 1-8 | 1-4 | 1-2 | -12 | 5 | 1 | |
| 26 | 15 | 6-17 | 2-7 | 1-2 | -2 | 7 | 0 | |
| 3 | 3 | 1-1 | — | 1-2 | +4 | 1 | 0 | |
| 30 | 22 | 8-14 | 5-7 | 1-2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | |
| 16 | 2 | 1-3 | 0-1 | — | -8 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 113 | 41-98 | 15-47 | 16-21 | 47 | 25 | ||
| DNP: N. Richards, A. Simons | ||||||||
DNP: N. Richards, A. Simons
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 24 | 6 | 2-5 | — | 2-3 | +13 | 16 | 3 | |
| 29 | 25 | 8-24 | 0-10 | 9-12 | +10 | 2 | 5 | |
| 18 | 3 | 1-4 | 1-3 | — | -2 | 2 | 1 | |
| 27 | 18 | 8-16 | 0-2 | 2-4 | +12 | 6 | 8 | |
| 31 | 21 | 8-11 | 5-7 | — | +21 | 5 | 2 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 19 | 12 | 4-6 | 2-4 | 2-2 | +6 | 10 | 0 | |
| 2 | 1 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 1-2 | -1 | 1 | 0 | |
| 3 | 0 | — | — | — | -4 | 1 | 0 | |
| 15 | 6 | 2-3 | 0-1 | 2-3 | +8 | 5 | 2 | |
| 4 | 0 | 0-1 | — | — | -4 | 1 | 1 | |
| 18 | 15 | 5-11 | 4-9 | 1-1 | +9 | 3 | 1 | |
| 11 | 9 | 3-4 | 1-2 | 2-2 | -2 | 2 | 0 | |
| 13 | 0 | 0-4 | 0-2 | — | +10 | 1 | 1 | |
| 25 | 15 | 6-10 | 1-3 | 2-2 | +14 | 3 | 5 | |
| Team | 131 | 47-101 | 14-45 | 23-31 | 58 | 29 | ||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
42
FG %
47
25
Ast
29
Season series
OKC wins series 2-0
OKC116@CHI108CHI113@OKC131todayVegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
OKC -18.5
Between 10 and —
Total
241.5
High-scoring · +15.5 vs avg
Moneyline
CHI+11008%OKC-210095%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 6 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
18.5
0.0 since open
Total
241.5
0.0 since open
Headlines · top performers
Biggest swing: 9pp · 3rd Quarter · 2:27
CHIT. Jones
GGame leader · 26 min
21 PTS · 7 REB · 9 AST
OKCC. Wallace
GGame leader · 31 min
21 PTS · 5 REB · 2 AST
How it ended
OKC beat CHI 131-113. C. Wallace led with 21 PTS, 5 REB, 2 AST. OKC outscored the other side 33-21 in the 3rd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
OKC vs CHI
Starters vs bench
production by unitCHIstarters 59% of ptsStarters(5)
67 PTS · 31 REB · 21 AST
GS 56
Bench(5)
46 PTS · 16 REB · 4 AST
GS 25
OKCstarters 56% of ptsStarters(5)
73 PTS · 31 REB · 19 AST
GS 65
Bench(9)
58 PTS · 27 REB · 10 AST
GS 53
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactCason Wallace · misses 25-foot three point jumper
Isaac Okoro · makes 26-foot three point jumper (Tre Jones assists)
Jaylin Williams · makes free throw 1 of 2
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 32 | 35 | 21 | 25 | 113 |
| OKC | 29 | 33 | 33 | 36 | 131 |
Period scoring
CHI won 2 · OKC won 2
Q1
Sexton 10
Gilgeous-Alexander 9
Q2
Miller 10
Mitchell 9
Q3
Jones 8
Gilgeous-Alexander 14
Q4
Jones 10
Joe 9
Shooting comparison
42%
41-98
FG
47%
47-101
32%
15-47
3PT
31%
14-45
76%
16-21
FT
74%
23-31
Play-by-play · 529 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
CHI 113·OKC 131
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
CHI 113·OKC 131
- Q4·1.4
shot clock turnover
CHI 113·OKC 131
- Q4·24.2
Payton Sandfort defensive rebound
CHI 113·OKC 131
- Q4·26.7
Patrick Williams misses 10-foot two point shot
· ·
CHI 113·OKC 131
- Q4·32.2
Patrick Williams offensive rebound
· ·
CHI 113·OKC 131
- Q4·34.8
Patrick Williams misses free throw 2 of 2
· ·
CHI 113·OKC 131
- Q4·34.8
Patrick Williams makes free throw 1 of 2
· ·
CHI 113·OKC 131
- Q4·34.8
Payton Sandfort personal foul
CHI 112·OKC 131
- Q4·45.5
Patrick Williams defensive rebound
· ·
CHI 112·OKC 131
- Q4·47.3
Payton Sandfort misses free throw 2 of 2
CHI 112·OKC 131
- Q4·47.3
Payton Sandfort makes free throw 1 of 2
CHI 112·OKC 131
- Q4·47.3
Collin Sexton shooting foul
CHI 112·OKC 130
- Q4·48.8
Aaron Wiggins offensive rebound
CHI 112·OKC 130
- Q4·51.0
Payton Sandfort misses 23-foot three point jumper
CHI 112·OKC 130
- Q4·1:04
Branden Carlson defensive rebound
CHI 112·OKC 130
- Q4·1:06
Lachlan Olbrich misses free throw 2 of 2
CHI 112·OKC 130
- Q4·1:06
Lachlan Olbrich makes free throw 1 of 2
CHI 112·OKC 130
- Q4·1:06
Payton Sandfort loose ball foul
CHI 111·OKC 130
- Q4·1:06
Bulls offensive team rebound
CHI 111·OKC 130
- Q4·1:07
Patrick Williams misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot
· ·
CHI 111·OKC 130
- Q4·1:10
Lachlan Olbrich offensive rebound
CHI 111·OKC 130
- Q4·1:14
Rob Dillingham misses 26-foot three point jumper
CHI 111·OKC 130
- Q4·1:20
Leonard Miller defensive rebound
CHI 111·OKC 130
- Q4·1:24
Aaron Wiggins misses 25-foot three point jumper
CHI 111·OKC 130
- Q4·1:36
Lachlan Olbrich makes 5-foot floating jump shot (Collin Sexton assists)
·
CHI 111·OKC 130
- Q4·1:48
Aaron Wiggins makes 1-foot driving floating jump shot (Kenrich Williams assists)
· ·
CHI 109·OKC 130
- Q4·1:53
Kenrich Williams offensive rebound
· ·
CHI 109·OKC 128
- Q4·1:55
Payton Sandfort misses 25-foot three point jumper
CHI 109·OKC 128
- Q4·2:12
Collin Sexton makes free throw 2 of 2
CHI 109·OKC 128
Team stats
CHI
Away
Stat
OKC
Home
41-98
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
47-101
42
FG %
47
15-47
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
14-45
16-21
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
23-31
25
Assists
29
12
Turnovers
9
Betting line
OKC -18.5·O/U 241.5·CHI +1100/OKC -2100
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 6 players in cohort- Cason WallaceOKC · GDEFL599+
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC · GUSG%32.899
Jalen WilliamsOKC · GDRIVES12.592
Isaiah HartensteinOKC · CDEFL2.788
Jaylin WilliamsOKC · FCONT4.875
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
38.2%
ensemble · CHI favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(OKC win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(OKC win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(OKC win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
OKC vs CHI.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
165
projections · 150 high confidence
Points
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC27.7± 6.8high
- Collin SextonCHI17.9± 4.5high
- Tre JonesCHI17.5± 7.4high
Rebounds
- Isaiah HartensteinOKC8.6± 3.9high
- Josh GiddeyCHI8.1± 4.3high
- Chet HolmgrenOKC8.0± 3.0high
Assists
- Josh GiddeyCHI9.9± 4.4high
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC7.6± 3.1high
- Tre JonesCHI5.2± 2.9high
Blocks
- Matas BuzelisCHI1.5± 1.4high
- Chet HolmgrenOKC1.4± 0.9high
- Jalen SmithCHI0.9± 1.0high
Steals
- Cason WallaceOKC2.0± 1.0high
- Collin SextonCHI1.6± 1.3high
- Alex CarusoOKC1.5± 1.1high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
hoopR-data
CHI
league avg
OKC
54.7%
Effective FG%
54.4
▶55.9%
46.9%
FG%
47.0
▶48.2%
116.3
PPG
114.9
▶118.5
28.5
Assists / G
25.0
25.8
14.6
Turnovers / G
14.0
▶11.9