WSH
17-56
GS
36-38
Recap · NBA
olden State Warriors held off Washington Wizards, 131–126. Decided by 5.
WSH +12.5 cashed (GS won by 5). Total cleared the 230.5 OVER by 26.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
WSH · top performer
Will Riley
G · #27
22
Pts
5
Reb
5
Ast
GS · top performer
Gui Santos
F · #15
27
Pts
4
Reb
4
Ast
NBA · Washington Wizards at Golden State Warriors · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 42 | 4 | 2-9 | 0-3 | — | -8 | 8 | 4 | |
| 23 | 8 | 3-10 | 1-4 | 1-2 | -8 | 9 | 3 | |
| 26 | 16 | 6-10 | 4-5 | — | -5 | 2 | 5 | |
| 19 | 21 | 8-16 | 4-9 | 1-2 | -7 | 6 | 2 | |
| 22 | 11 | 5-11 | 1-5 | — | -11 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 25 | 14 | 7-9 | 0-1 | — | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| 25 | 6 | 3-8 | 0-4 | — | +6 | 2 | 3 | |
| 11 | 7 | 3-4 | — | 1-1 | +8 | 1 | 4 | |
| 6 | 3 | 1-1 | 1-1 | — | +1 | 3 | 0 | |
| 12 | 14 | 4-5 | 4-5 | 2-2 | -7 | 0 | 0 | |
| 29 | 22 | 8-12 | 3-5 | 3-3 | +6 | 5 | 5 | |
| Team | 126 | 50-95 | 18-42 | 8-10 | 38 | 29 | ||
| DNP: T. Vukcevic | ||||||||
DNP: T. Vukcevic
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 32 | 6 | 2-4 | 1-3 | 1-2 | +4 | 4 | 10 | |
| 33 | 27 | 8-12 | 3-5 | 8-9 | +5 | 4 | 4 | |
| 29 | 28 | 9-17 | 5-11 | 5-7 | +5 | 8 | 3 | |
| 33 | 22 | 6-13 | 3-8 | 7-8 | +7 | 10 | 7 | |
| 25 | 8 | 3-5 | 2-4 | — | -10 | 2 | 2 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 3 | 0 | 0-1 | — | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 8 | 0 | — | — | — | -4 | 3 | 0 | |
| 25 | 15 | 7-11 | 0-1 | 1-3 | +4 | 5 | 2 | |
| 27 | 12 | 4-13 | 4-10 | — | +11 | 2 | 2 | |
| 25 | 13 | 5-9 | 1-2 | 2-2 | +3 | 5 | 2 | |
| Team | 131 | 44-85 | 19-44 | 24-31 | 43 | 32 | ||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
53
FG %
52
29
Ast
32
Season series
GS wins series 2-0
GS125@WSH117WSH126@GS131todayVegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
GS -12.5
Between 10 and —
Total
230.5
Standard · +4.5 vs avg
Moneyline
WSH+52516%GS-75088%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 5 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
12.5
0.0 since open
Total
230.5
0.0 since open
Headlines · top performers
Biggest swing: 32pp · 4th Quarter · 7:03
WSHW. Riley
GGame leader · 29 min
22 PTS · 5 REB · 5 AST
GSG. Santos
FGame leader · 33 min
27 PTS · 4 REB · 4 AST
How it ended
GS beat WSH 131-126. G. Santos paced them with 27 PTS, 4 REB, 4 AST. WSH outscored the other side 34-20 in the 3rd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
GS vs WSH
Starters vs bench
production by unitWSHstarters 48% of ptsStarters(5)
60 PTS · 26 REB · 14 AST
GS 41
Bench(6)
66 PTS · 12 REB · 15 AST
GS 58
GSstarters 69% of ptsStarters(5)
91 PTS · 28 REB · 26 AST
GS 89
Bench(5)
40 PTS · 15 REB · 6 AST
GS 26
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactGui Santos · makes free throw 2 of 2
Will Riley · makes free throw 1 of 3
Justin Champagnie · bad pass turnover (Pat Spencer steals)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 25 | 35 | 34 | 32 | 126 |
| GS | 38 | 34 | 20 | 39 | 131 |
Period scoring
WSH won 2 · GS won 2
Q1
Carrington 8
Carrington 23
Q2
Coulibaly 10
Santos 7
Q3
Coulibaly 10
Santos 28
Q4
Hardy 14
Santos 29
Shooting comparison
53%
50-95
FG
52%
44-85
43%
18-42
3PT
43%
19-44
80%
8-10
FT
77%
24-31
Play-by-play · 464 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
WSH 126·GS 131
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
WSH 126·GS 131
+1pp
- Q4·10.4
Jaden Hardy bad pass turnover (Brandin Podziemski steals)
·
WSH 126·GS 131
+3pp
- Q4·11.4
Wizards Full timeout
WSH 126·GS 131
- Q4·11.4
Gui Santos makes free throw 2 of 2
WSH 126·GS 131
−2pp
- Q4·11.4
Gui Santos makes free throw 1 of 2
WSH 126·GS 130
+0.6pp
- Q4·11.4
Will Riley personal take foulBIG MOMENT
WSH 126·GS 129
+6pp
- Q4·14.9
Will Riley makes 27-foot three point jumper (Justin Champagnie assists)
·
WSH 126·GS 129
−5pp
- Q4·24.8
Kristaps Porzingis makes free throw 2 of 2
WSH 123·GS 129
−1pp
- Q4·24.8
Kristaps Porzingis makes free throw 1 of 2
WSH 123·GS 128
+0.5pp
- Q4·24.8
Leaky Black personal take foul
WSH 123·GS 127
+4pp
- Q4·26.4
Jaden Hardy makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshot
WSH 123·GS 127
−4pp
- Q4·41.2
Brandin Podziemski makes free throw 2 of 2
WSH 120·GS 127
−1pp
- Q4·41.2
Gary Payton II enters the game for LJ Cryer
·
WSH 120·GS 126
- Q4·41.2
Brandin Podziemski makes free throw 1 of 2
WSH 120·GS 126
- Q4·41.2
Justin Champagnie personal foul
WSH 120·GS 125
+4pp
- Q4·1:00
Jaden Hardy makes free throw 2 of 2
WSH 120·GS 125
+3pp
- Q4·1:00
LJ Cryer enters the game for Gary Payton II
·
WSH 119·GS 125
- Q4·1:00
Jaden Hardy makes free throw 1 of 2
WSH 119·GS 125
−0.9pp
- Q4·1:00
Draymond Green personal foul
WSH 118·GS 125
−5pp
- Q4·1:08
Brandin Podziemski traveling turnover
WSH 118·GS 125
−2pp
- Q4·1:16
Gui Santos offensive rebound
WSH 118·GS 125
+1pp
- Q4·1:19
Kristaps Porzingis misses 28-foot three point jumper
WSH 118·GS 125
−1pp
- Q4·1:27
Kristaps Porzingis defensive rebound
WSH 118·GS 125
+0.5pp
- Q4·1:29
Justin Champagnie misses 5-foot floating jump shot
WSH 118·GS 125
+2pp
- Q4·1:40
Will Riley defensive rebound
WSH 118·GS 125
- Q4·1:43
Gui Santos misses 27-foot three point jumper
WSH 118·GS 125
−1pp
- Q4·1:59
Anthony Gill makes two point shot (Will Riley assists)
·
WSH 118·GS 125
−0.9pp
- Q4·2:11
Gary Payton II enters the game for LJ Cryer
·
WSH 116·GS 125
- Q4·2:11
Wizards Full timeout
WSH 116·GS 125
Team stats
WSH
Away
Stat
GS
Home
50-95
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
44-85
53
FG %
52
18-42
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
19-44
8-10
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
24-31
29
Assists
32
11
Turnovers
12
Betting line
GS -12.5·O/U 230.5·WSH +525/GS -750
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
38.2%
ensemble · WSH favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
GS vs WSH.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
180
projections · 150 high confidence
Points
- Stephen CurryGS25.2± 8.3high
- Anthony DavisWSH20.5± 9.2high
- Jimmy Butler IIIGS20.4± 6.0high
Rebounds
- Anthony DavisWSH11.3± 4.3high
- Julian ReeseWSH10.5± 6.4low
- Alex SarrWSH6.8± 2.8high
Assists
- Trae YoungWSH8.1± 3.5medium
- Draymond GreenGS6.6± 3.0high
- Bub CarringtonWSH5.1± 1.9high
Blocks
- Anthony DavisWSH1.7± 1.5high
- Alex SarrWSH1.6± 1.4high
- Al HorfordGS1.1± 1.3high
Steals
- De'Anthony MeltonGS1.5± 1.4high
- Jimmy Butler IIIGS1.5± 1.3high
- Julian ReeseWSH1.4± 1.7low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
hoopR-data
WSH
league avg
GS
53.5%
Effective FG%
54.4
▶55.1%
46.3%
FG%
47.0
46.2%
112.9
PPG
114.9
▶114.5
25.0
Assists / G
25.0
▶28.8
15.1
Turnovers / G
14.0
15.1