Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NYM at TOR?

The model favors NYM, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

New York Mets vs Toronto Blue Jays: Final Score & Box Score — Jun 29, 2026

FINAL+1TOR

NYM

35-50

TOR

40-45

Rogers Centre · Toronto, Ontario

41,634 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

TOR spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

TOR no-vig %

54.1%

open 53.2% · +0.9

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = TOR favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Logged before first pitch · graded in public

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

46.4%

ensemble · NYM favored

Elo Static
48.1%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
48.9%
P(TOR win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
47.9%
P(TOR win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.43 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-0.91

CLV pp

Open price

+104

Close price

+108

Open no-vig

46.8%

Close no-vig

45.9%

Market faded the model · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NYM at TOR?: The model favors NYM, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+21.4pp

best edge · NYM · DraftKings

NYM

★ best

+188DraftKings

edge +21.4pp · implied 32.5%

TOR

no live price

Book	NYM	TOR	Best edge
DraftKings	+188★	-258	+21.4

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

TOR vs NYM.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 105 high confidence

Strikeouts

Dylan CeaseTOR
8.5± 2.7high
Nolan McLeanNYM
7.0± 1.7high
Christian ScottNYM
5.9± 1.6medium

Hits

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.TOR
1.2± 0.9high
Bo BichetteNYM
1.1± 1.1high
Carson BengeNYM
1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

Francisco LindorNYM
1.9± 3.5high
Tyrone TaylorNYM
1.9± 2.3high
George SpringerTOR
1.8± 1.7high

RBIs

Tyrone TaylorNYM
0.8± 1.3high
George SpringerTOR
0.8± 1.2high
Francisco LindorNYM
0.7± 1.9high

Earned runs

Max ScherzerTOR
3.7± 4.0low
Freddy PeraltaNYM
3.2± 3.3high
Kodai SengaNYM
3.2± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

NYM

league avg

TOR

.685

OPS

.720

.684

.304

OBP

.318

.305

4.08

Runs / G

◀

4.50

3.95

4.12

Team ERA

4.18

4.09

1.29

WHIP

◀

1.31

9.1

K / 9

8.5

9.0

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TOR wins

NYM 1 · TOR 2 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked NYM +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
NYM	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1
TOR	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. BengeRF	.257	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
J. SotoLF	.301	3	0	1	0	0	1	0
B. Bichette3B	.251	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
F. LindorSS	.220	4	1	1	1	1	0	0
J. Young1B	.234	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
A.J. EwingCF	.275	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
M. Vientos1B	.209	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
B. Baty3B	.208	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
F. AlvarezC	.250	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
E. Wagaman1B	.192	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. MauricioSS	.182	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. TaylorCF	.202	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
L. TorrensC	.214	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		32	1	5	1	1	2	5

Player

.257

.301

.251

.220

.234

.275

.209

.208

.250

.192

.182

.202

.214

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. ManaeaRP	5.2	3	2	2	2	4	90
A. WarrenUN	1.1	1	0	0	2	2	30
J. GerberRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	9
Team	8.0	4	2	2	4	8	129

Player

S. ManaeaRP

5.2

A. WarrenUN

1.1

J. GerberRP

1.0

Team

8.0

129

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
G. SpringerDH	.221	4	1	1	0	0	0	3
N. LukesRF	.304	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
V. Guerrero Jr.1B	.268	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
K. Okamoto3B	.236	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
E. Clement2B	.299	3	0	1	0	0	1	0
B. ValenzuelaC	.240	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
L. Urias2B	.333	2	1	1	0	0	1	1
Y. PinangoLF	.270	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. StrawRF	.237	2	0	0	1	0	0	0
D. VarshoCF	.258	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. GimenezSS	.242	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		27	2	4	1	0	4	8

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. YesavageSP	6.2	3	1	1	0	3	94
M. FluhartyRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	2
T. RogersRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	0	9
L. VarlandRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	2	23
Team	9.0	5	1	1	2	5	128

Team

NYM

TOR

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

TOR vs NYM.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

Closing-line value.

TOR vs NYM.

3 sub-models, blended.