Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CHW at TOR?

The model favors CHW, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Chicago White Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 18, 2026

FINAL+1TOR

CHW

51-46

TOR

46-52

Rogers Centre · Toronto, Ontario

41,775 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

TOR spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

TOR no-vig %

49.1%

open 48.5% · +0.7

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = TOR favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

27.9%

ensemble · CHW favored

Elo Static
37.5%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
35.0%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
37.6%
P(TOR win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.20 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-1.30

CLV pp

Open price

-117

Close price

-111

Open no-vig

51.5%

Close no-vig

50.2%

Market faded the model · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CHW at TOR?: The model favors CHW, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+21.6pp

best edge · CHW · DraftKings

CHW

★ best

-106DraftKings

edge +21.6pp · implied 49.2%

TOR

no live price

Book	CHW	TOR	Best edge
DraftKings	-106★	-113	+21.6

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

TOR vs CHW.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 118 high confidence

Strikeouts

Dylan CeaseTOR
8.5± 2.7high
Sean BurkeCHW
7.3± 2.0high
Trey YesavageTOR
5.3± 3.0medium

Hits

George SpringerTOR
1.2± 0.7high
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.TOR
1.2± 0.9high
Munetaka MurakamiCHW
1.1± 0.7high

Total bases

Munetaka MurakamiCHW
2.4± 2.6high
George SpringerTOR
2.0± 1.6high
Kazuma OkamotoTOR
1.8± 2.1high

RBIs

Munetaka MurakamiCHW
0.8± 1.9high
George SpringerTOR
0.8± 1.3high
Kazuma OkamotoTOR
0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

Noah SchultzCHW
3.4± 2.6low
Max ScherzerTOR
3.4± 3.9low
Shane BieberTOR
2.9± 3.2low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CHW

league avg

TOR

.724

OPS

◀

.719

.682

.316

OBP

◀

.318

.304

4.78

Runs / G

◀

4.50

3.92

4.00

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.07

1.29

WHIP

◀

1.30

1.31

8.6

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.0

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TOR wins

CHW 0 · TOR 1 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked CHW +12pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
CHW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
TOR	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	1

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. AntonacciLF	.285	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
M. Murakami1B	.234	3	0	1	0	0	1	1
M. Vargas3B	.245	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
C. MontgomerySS	.221	3	0	0	0	0	1	3
A. BenintendiDH	.242	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
K. TeelC	.194	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
B. MontgomeryRF	.232	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
T. PetersCF	.297	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. Meidroth2B	.272	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
L. AcunaSS	.242	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		29	0	4	0	0	3	10

Player

.285

.234

.245

.221

.242

.194

.232

.297

.272

.242

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. MartinSP	5.2	4	1	1	2	5	85
S. NewcombRP	1.1	1	0	0	1	1	15
J. HicksRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	8
Team	8.0	5	1	1	3	6	108

Player

D. MartinSP

5.2

S. NewcombRP

1.1

J. HicksRP

1.0

Team

8.0

108

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. Clement2B	.295	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
N. LukesRF	.282	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
V. Guerrero Jr.1B	.265	3	1	2	0	0	1	0
G. SpringerDH	.219	4	0	1	1	0	0	1
K. Okamoto3B	.234	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
D. VarshoCF	.238	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
A. KirkC	.204	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
A. GimenezSS	.233	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. ClaseLF	.316	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
M. StrawRF	.225	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		29	1	5	1	0	3	6

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. BieberSP	6.0	3	0	0	2	6	80
J. HoffmanRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	14
T. RogersRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	11
L. VarlandRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	9
Team	9.0	4	0	0	3	10	114

Team

CHW

TOR

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

TOR vs CHW.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

TOR vs CHW.

Where to bet this game.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

3 sub-models, blended.