Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in SEA at HOU?

The model favors HOU, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros: MLB Prediction, Pick & Odds — Aug 14, 2026

SEA

57-65

PregameFri, 8:10 PM EDTMLB.TV

HOU

62-60

ATS/HOU -1.5O/U/8ML/HOU-114

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 6.77

G. Kirby

8-9 · 3.68 ERA

P. Lambert

8-6 · 3.09 ERA

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Why this matchup

2 signals · model + market

Starter edge

3.09 ERA

Peter Lambert vs George Kirby - 3.68 ERA

Lambert owns the sharper run-prevention profile, giving HOU cleaner opening script tonight.

Recent form

5-5

HOU +0.4 vs SEA -2.8 margin

HOU brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.

Daikin Park · Houston, Texas

Line movement

200 snapshots

HOU spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

HOU no-vig %

54.2%

open 54.2%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = HOU favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Pregame · scouting report

The matchup, end-to-end.

Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.

Away starter

George Kirby

SP · #68

8-9

W-L

3.68

ERA

1.27

WHIP

112

132.0

Last 3 starts

vsTB-5.0 IP1 ER2 K

vsMIN-7.0 IP0 ER3 K

@TEXL(8-9)4.0 IP7 ER3 K

Home starter

Peter Lambert

SP · #38

8-6

W-L

3.09

ERA

1.15

WHIP

111

113.2

Last 3 starts

@SDL(8-6)5.0 IP2 ER3 K

vsTEX-5.2 IP2 ER8 K

@LAA-5.0 IP2 ER6 K

Vegas line

Spread+1.5

TotalO/U 8

Money+106 / -114

Model edge

Win prob37% / 63%

LeanHome · 13pp

ConfidenceEdge

Head to head

SeriesSEA leads series 7-1

TypeRegular Season Series

Place a bet

Take HOU on the model side.

Our model leans this way; both DraftKings and FanDuel are open below.

Model side · moneyline

-114Bet HOU ML↗-114Bet HOU ML↗

Other markets

+1.5Bet the run line↗+1.5Bet the run line↗

O/U 8Bet the total↗O/U 8Bet the total↗

21+ in most states. Lines refreshed at the moment of fetch. We may earn a referral fee on book signups — your odds and terms are unchanged.

Scouting report · pre-game

HOU vs SEA.

HOU is 5-5 recently; SEA is 3-7.

63.1%

model · HOU win prob

Recent form

HOU5–5+0.4
SEA3–7-2.8

Situational

HOU2d rest
SEA1d restB2B
+1.0d differential

HOU has 1 more rest day. HOU has 6 straight road games; SEA has 3.

Model angle

+10.8ppon HOU

HOU's edge is mostly model confidence plus venue split. Head to head is the main caution flag. Weather and park remove about 0.1 runs from the total environment.

▼Weather + park-0.1pp
▲Model confidence+4.4pp
▲Venue split+4.4pp

Players to watch

Logan GilbertSEA
6.7strikeouts · ±1.9
Logan Gilbert · 6.7 K · last-10 7 vs season 6.3.
Peter LambertHOU
5.7strikeouts · ±2.2
Peter Lambert · 5.7 K · last-10 5.8 vs season 5.6.
Bryan WooSEA
5.7strikeouts · ±1.7
Bryan Woo · 5.7 K · last-10 5.7 vs season 5.7.

Line move

open -131→-131flat

The home moneyline has stayed mostly flat.

Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

63.4%

ensemble · HOU favored

Elo Static
63.7%
P(HOU win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
64.4%
P(HOU win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
64.2%
P(HOU win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.29 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Why we like HOU.

HOU's edge is mostly model confidence plus venue split. Head to head is the main caution flag.

+10.8

pp edge · HOU

0.00

CLV pp

5.0u · large

on HOU

62.6%

±5.1pp band

4.99u large — +9.3pp edge, quarter Kelly.

Edge

+10.3pp

-0.5pp post-cal

Kelly

20.0%

5.0% sized

Decimal

1.88

+9.3pp vs price

Contributor breakdown · sums to 10.8pp · HOU over SEA

▲
Model confidence90% conf
HOU clears the model's lock threshold.
+4.4pp
▲
Venue split66% conf
HOU's venue form is 45pp stronger in the recent sample.
+4.4pp
▲
Travel burden58% conf
SEA is carrying the heavier road load into this matchup.
+2.3pp
▼
Head to head48% conf
SEA has controlled the recent head-to-head sample.
-0.6pp
▲
Rest advantage65% conf
HOU has 2 days rest; SEA has 1.
+0.3pp

Open price

-131

Close price

-131

Open no-vig

54.2%

Close no-vig

54.2%

Line barely moved

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in SEA at HOU?: The model favors HOU, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+9.7pp

best edge · HOU · DraftKings

SEA

no live price

HOU

★ best

-119DraftKings

edge +9.7pp · implied 53.4%

Book	SEA	HOU	Best edge
DraftKings	+111	-119★	+9.7

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

HOU vs SEA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 114 high confidence

Strikeouts

Logan GilbertSEA
6.7± 1.9high
Peter LambertHOU
5.7± 2.2high
Bryan WooSEA
5.7± 1.7high

Hits

Cam SmithHOU
1.1± 1.3high
Yordan AlvarezHOU
1.1± 1.2high
Julio RodriguezSEA
1.1± 0.7high

Total bases

Cam SmithHOU
2.0± 3.0high
Julio RodriguezSEA
1.9± 1.9high
Yordan AlvarezHOU
1.8± 2.1high

RBIs

Yordan AlvarezHOU
0.6± 0.7high
Cam SmithHOU
0.5± 0.8high
Christian WalkerHOU
0.5± 0.7high

Earned runs

Ronel BlancoHOU
3.8± 1.3low
Bryan WooSEA
2.8± 2.5high
Hayden WesneskiHOU
2.7± 0.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

SEA

league avg

HOU

.681

OPS

.719

▶

.730

.307

OBP

.318

▶

.319

3.84

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.58

3.81

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.54

1.21

WHIP

◀

1.30

1.35

8.7

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.8

The One modelEdge

Fri, Aug 14

SEA

Mariners

68-81

vs63.1%HOU

HOU★

Astros

80-69

SEA 36.9%win prob63.1% HOU

HOU 1540 · SEA 1466Box score→

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros

The mound matchup

The matchup, end-to-end.

Take HOU on the model side.

HOU vs SEA.

3 sub-models, blended.

Why we like HOU.

Where to bet this game.

HOU vs SEA.

Team rate stats vs league

Where to bet this game.

3 sub-models, blended.

Why we like HOU.