Recent form
5-5
HOU +0.4 vs SEA -2.8 margin
HOU brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
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Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros
SEA
SEA
56-65
PregameFri, 8:10 PM EDTMLB.TV
HOU
HOU
62-60
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
1 signal · model + marketDaikin Park · Houston, Texas
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
George Kirby
SP · #68
8-9
W-L
3.68
ERA
1.27
WHIP
112
K
132.0
IP
Last 3 starts
vsTB-5.0 IP1 ER2 K
vsMIN-7.0 IP0 ER3 K
@TEXL(8-9)4.0 IP7 ER3 K
Home starter
Peter Lambert
SP · #38
8-6
W-L
3.09
ERA
1.15
WHIP
111
K
113.2
IP
Last 3 starts
@SDL(8-6)5.0 IP2 ER3 K
vsTEX-5.2 IP2 ER8 K
@LAA-5.0 IP2 ER6 K
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Win prob36% / 64%
LeanHome · 14pp
ConfidenceEdge
Head to head
SeriesSEA leads series 7-1
TypeRegular Season Series
Scouting report · pre-game
HOU vs SEA.
HOU is 5-5 recently; SEA is 3-7.
63.8%
model · HOU win prob
Recent form
- HOU5–5+0.4
- SEA3–7-2.8
Situational
- HOU2d rest
- SEA2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. HOU has 6 straight road games; SEA has 2.
Model angle
Weather and park remove about 0.1 runs from the total environment.
- ▼Weather + park-0.1pp
Players to watch
- Logan GilbertSEA6.6strikeouts · ±2.0
Logan Gilbert · 6.6 K · last-10 6.8 vs season 6.3.
- Peter LambertHOU5.7strikeouts · ±2.2
Peter Lambert · 5.7 K · last-10 5.8 vs season 5.6.
- Bryan WooSEA5.7strikeouts · ±1.7
Bryan Woo · 5.7 K · last-10 5.7 vs season 5.7.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
64.1%
ensemble · HOU favored
Elo Static
64.4%
P(HOU win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
65.1%
P(HOU win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
64.6%
P(HOU win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.29 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
98% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
HOU vs SEA.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
130
projections · 114 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Logan GilbertSEA6.6± 2.0high
- Peter LambertHOU5.7± 2.2high
- Bryan WooSEA5.7± 1.7high
Hits
- Cam SmithHOU1.1± 1.3high
- Yordan AlvarezHOU1.1± 1.2high
- Julio RodriguezSEA1.1± 0.7high
Total bases
- Cam SmithHOU2.0± 3.0high
- Julio RodriguezSEA1.9± 1.9high
- Randy ArozarenaSEA1.9± 2.1high
RBIs
- Yordan AlvarezHOU0.6± 0.7high
- Cal RaleighSEA0.6± 1.1high
- Cam SmithHOU0.5± 0.8high
Earned runs
- Ronel BlancoHOU3.8± 1.3low
- Bryan WooSEA2.8± 2.5high
- Hayden WesneskiHOU2.7± 0.8low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
SEA
league avg
HOU
.683
OPS
.719
▶.730
.308
OBP
.318
▶.319
3.87
Runs / G
4.50
▶4.58
3.85
Team ERA
◀
4.17
4.54
1.21
WHIP
◀
1.31
1.35
8.7
K / 9
8.5
▶8.8
The One modelEdge
Fri, Aug 14SEA
Mariners
67-81
vs63.8%HOU
HOU★
Astros
80-69
SEA 36.2%win prob63.8% HOU
HOU 1540 · SEA 1461Box score→
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
