Miami Marlins vs Cincinnati Reds: MLB Prediction, Pick & Odds — Aug 14, 2026

MIA

62-59

PregameFri, 6:10 PM EDTMLB.TV

CIN

57-62

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Why this matchup

2 signals · model + market

Park factor

103 total idx

Great American Ball Park run environment

Park factor boosts run scoring, so contact quality matters more tonight here.

Recent form

6-4

MIA +1.6 vs CIN -1.0 margin

MIA brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.

Great American Ball Park · Cincinnati, Ohio

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Pregame · scouting report

The matchup, end-to-end.

Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.

Away starter

Sandy Alcantara

SP · #22

13-6

W-L

3.52

ERA

1.17

WHIP

128

163.2

Last 3 starts

vsLAAW(13-6)7.0 IP0 ER8 K

@NYMW(12-6)6.0 IP0 ER5 K

vsPHIW(11-6)7.0 IP0 ER5 K

Home starter

Chase Burns

SP · #26

13-2

W-L

2.61

ERA

1.12

WHIP

143

124.0

Last 3 starts

@WSHL(13-2)5.1 IP5 ER6 K

vsPITW(13-1)6.0 IP1 ER9 K

vsCLE-5.0 IP1 ER4 K

Vegas line

Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.

Model edge

Win prob55% / 45%

LeanAway · 5pp

ConfidenceLean

Head to head

SeriesSeries tied 2-2

TypeRegular Season Series

Scouting report · pre-game

CIN vs MIA.

CIN is 5-5 recently; MIA is 6-4.

45.0%

model · CIN win prob

Recent form

CIN5–5-1.0
MIA6–4+1.6

Situational

CIN2d rest
MIA2d rest
+0.0d differential

Rest is even. CIN has 5 straight road games; MIA has 0.

Model angle

Weather and park add about 0.3 runs from the total environment.

▲Weather + park+0.3pp

Players to watch

Chase BurnsCIN
6.3strikeouts · ±2.4
Chase Burns · 6.3 K · last-10 6.2 vs season 6.5.
Eury PerezMIA
6.3strikeouts · ±2.9
Eury Perez · 6.3 K · last-10 6.5 vs season 6.1.
Sandy AlcantaraMIA
5.5strikeouts · ±2.0
Sandy Alcantara · 5.5 K · last-10 5.7 vs season 5.1.

Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

45.3%

ensemble · MIA favored

Elo Static
46.5%
P(CIN win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
47.6%
P(CIN win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
45.9%
P(CIN win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.70 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

CIN vs MIA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 109 high confidence

Strikeouts

Chase BurnsCIN
6.3± 2.4high
Eury PerezMIA
6.3± 2.9high
Sandy AlcantaraMIA
5.5± 2.0high

Hits

Javier SanojaMIA
1.1± 0.6high
Otto LopezMIA
1.1± 0.8high
Sal StewartCIN
1.0± 0.7high

Total bases

Griffin ConineMIA
2.0± 3.0high
Eugenio SuarezCIN
1.7± 2.1high
Sal StewartCIN
1.7± 1.6high

RBIs

Elly De La CruzCIN
0.7± 0.9high
Griffin ConineMIA
0.6± 0.9high
Javier SanojaMIA
0.6± 1.2high

Earned runs

Janson JunkMIA
2.9± 3.4medium
Rhett LowderCIN
2.6± 2.5high
Brady SingerCIN
2.5± 1.5high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

MIA

league avg

CIN

.732

OPS

◀

.719

.701

.327

OBP

◀

.318

.307

4.41

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.09

3.91

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.48

1.24

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.40

8.6

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.1

The One modelLean

Fri, Aug 14

MIA★

Marlins

73-69

vs55.0%MIA

CIN

Reds

66-74

MIA 55.0%win prob45.0% CIN

MIA 1510 · CIN 1462Box score→

Team pages

Miami MarlinsCincinnati Reds

Elsewhere in the MLB

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Miami Marlins at Cincinnati Reds

The matchup, end-to-end.

CIN vs MIA.

3 sub-models, blended.

CIN vs MIA.

Team rate stats vs league