Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MIA at CIN?

The model favors MIA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Miami Marlins vs Cincinnati Reds: MLB Prediction, Pick & Odds — Aug 14, 2026

MIA

62-60

PregameFri, 6:10 PM EDTMLB.TV

CIN

58-62

ATS/CIN -1.5O/U/8ML/CIN-111

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 6.13

S. Alcantara

13-6 · 3.52 ERA

C. Burns

13-2 · 2.61 ERA

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Why this matchup

3 signals · model + market

Starter edge

2.61 ERA

Chase Burns vs Sandy Alcantara - 3.52 ERA

Burns owns the sharper run-prevention profile, giving CIN cleaner opening script tonight.

Park factor

103 total idx

Great American Ball Park run environment

Park factor boosts run scoring, so contact quality matters more tonight here.

Recent form

5-5

MIA 0.0 vs CIN -0.6 margin

MIA brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.

Great American Ball Park · Cincinnati, Ohio

Line movement

200 snapshots

CIN spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

CIN no-vig %

51.0%

open 51.0%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CIN favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Pregame · scouting report

The matchup, end-to-end.

Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.

Away starter

Sandy Alcantara

SP · #22

13-6

W-L

3.52

ERA

1.17

WHIP

128

163.2

Last 3 starts

vsLAAW(13-6)7.0 IP0 ER8 K

@NYMW(12-6)6.0 IP0 ER5 K

vsPHIW(11-6)7.0 IP0 ER5 K

Home starter

Chase Burns

SP · #26

13-2

W-L

2.61

ERA

1.12

WHIP

143

124.0

Last 3 starts

@WSHL(13-2)5.1 IP5 ER6 K

vsPITW(13-1)6.0 IP1 ER9 K

vsCLE-5.0 IP1 ER4 K

Vegas line

Spread+1.5

TotalO/U 8

Money+103 / -111

Model edge

Win prob52% / 48%

LeanTossup

ConfidenceTossup

Head to head

SeriesSeries tied 2-2

TypeRegular Season Series

Place a bet

Pick a side.

Even matchup per the model — pick a side and we'll send you to the book.

+103Bet MIA ML↗+103Bet MIA ML↗

-111Bet CIN ML↗-111Bet CIN ML↗

Other markets

+1.5Bet the run line↗+1.5Bet the run line↗

O/U 8Bet the total↗O/U 8Bet the total↗

21+ in most states. Lines refreshed at the moment of fetch. We may earn a referral fee on book signups — your odds and terms are unchanged.

Scouting report · pre-game

CIN vs MIA.

CIN is 6-4 recently; MIA is 5-5.

48.2%

model · CIN win prob

Recent form

CIN6–4-0.6
MIA5–5+0.0

Situational

CIN1d restB2B
MIA1d restB2B
+0.0d differential

Rest is even. CIN has 6 straight road games; MIA has 0.

Model angle

+3.4ppon MIA

MIA's edge is mostly model confidence plus recent form. Venue split is the main caution flag. Weather and park add about 0.6 runs from the total environment.

▲Weather + park+0.6pp
▼Venue split-1.5pp
▲Model confidence+0.9pp

Players to watch

Chase BurnsCIN
6.3strikeouts · ±2.4
Chase Burns · 6.3 K · last-10 6.2 vs season 6.5.
Eury PerezMIA
6.3strikeouts · ±2.9
Eury Perez · 6.3 K · last-10 6.5 vs season 6.1.
Sandy AlcantaraMIA
5.5strikeouts · ±2.0
Sandy Alcantara · 5.5 K · last-10 5.7 vs season 5.1.

Line move

open -114→-114flat

The home moneyline has stayed mostly flat.

Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

48.8%

ensemble · MIA favored

Elo Static
48.3%
P(CIN win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
49.4%
P(CIN win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
48.1%
P(CIN win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.57 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Why we like MIA.

MIA's edge is mostly model confidence plus recent form. Venue split is the main caution flag.

+3.4

pp edge · MIA

-0.54

CLV pp

1.4u · medium

on MIA

52.0%

±4.8pp band

1.35u medium — +2.7pp edge, quarter Kelly.

Edge

+3.6pp

+0.2pp post-cal

Kelly

5.4%

1.3% sized

Decimal

2.03

+2.7pp vs price

Contributor breakdown · sums to 3.4pp · MIA over CIN

▼
Venue split66% conf
CIN's venue form trims MIA's edge by 32.5pp.
-1.5pp
▲
Model confidence82% conf
MIA grades as a real model edge, not just noise.
+0.9pp
▲
Recent form70% conf
MIA is 4-1 over its last 5; CIN is 2-3.
+0.8pp
▲
Head to head48% conf
MIA has taken 2 of the last 3 meetings.
+0.2pp

Open price

-105

Close price

-103

Open no-vig

49.0%

Close no-vig

48.5%

Market faded the model

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MIA at CIN?: The model favors MIA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+3.7pp

best edge · MIA · DraftKings

MIA

★ best

+104DraftKings

edge +3.7pp · implied 48.1%

CIN

no live price

Book	MIA	CIN	Best edge
DraftKings	+104★	-112	+3.7

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

CIN vs MIA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 109 high confidence

Strikeouts

Chase BurnsCIN
6.3± 2.4high
Eury PerezMIA
6.3± 2.9high
Sandy AlcantaraMIA
5.5± 2.0high

Hits

Sal StewartCIN
1.1± 0.6high
Javier SanojaMIA
1.0± 0.7high
Otto LopezMIA
1.0± 0.9high

Total bases

Eugenio SuarezCIN
2.0± 2.1high
Sal StewartCIN
2.0± 1.9high
Griffin ConineMIA
1.8± 2.8high

RBIs

Eugenio SuarezCIN
0.8± 1.3high
Elly De La CruzCIN
0.7± 0.9high
Tyler StephensonCIN
0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

Janson JunkMIA
2.9± 3.4medium
Rhett LowderCIN
2.6± 2.5high
Andrew AbbottCIN
2.5± 1.4high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

MIA

league avg

CIN

.730

OPS

◀

.719

.702

.326

OBP

◀

.318

.307

4.39

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.13

3.98

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.51

1.25

WHIP

◀

1.30

1.41

8.6

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.1

The One modelTossup

Fri, Aug 14

MIA★

Marlins

73-70

vs51.8%MIA

CIN

Reds

67-74

MIA 51.8%win prob48.2% CIN

MIA 1503 · CIN 1467Box score→

Team pages

Miami MarlinsCincinnati Reds

Elsewhere in the MLB

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Miami Marlins at Cincinnati Reds

The mound matchup

The matchup, end-to-end.

Pick a side.

CIN vs MIA.

3 sub-models, blended.

Why we like MIA.

Where to bet this game.

CIN vs MIA.

Team rate stats vs league

Where to bet this game.

Why we like MIA.