Park factor
98 total idx
PNC Park run environment
Park factor boosts run scoring, so contact quality matters more tonight here.
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Boston Red Sox at Pittsburgh Pirates
BOS
BOS
64-56
PregameFri, 6:40 PM EDTMLB.TV
PIT
PIT
58-64
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
2 signals · model + marketPNC Park · Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Jake Bennett
SP · #64
7-5
W-L
3.17
ERA
1.04
WHIP
55
K
76.2
IP
Last 3 starts
vsATHL(7-5)5.1 IP4 ER5 K
@LADW(7-4)5.2 IP3 ER4 K
@ATHL(6-4)6.1 IP3 ER4 K
Home starter
Bubba Chandler
SP · #36
5-8
W-L
4.26
ERA
1.38
WHIP
103
K
116.1
IP
Last 3 starts
vsNYMW(5-8)6.0 IP0 ER5 K
@MILW(4-8)5.2 IP2 ER5 K
vsARI-4.0 IP3 ER3 K
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Win prob66% / 35%
LeanAway · 16pp
Confidence★ Lock
Head to head
SeriesPIT wins series 2-1
TypePreseason Series
Scouting report · pre-game
PIT vs BOS.
PIT has dropped 3 straight; BOS is 5-5 over its last 10.
34.5%
model · PIT win prob
Recent form
- PIT2–8-2.5
- BOS5–5+2.3
Situational
- PIT2d rest
- BOS2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. PIT has 2 straight road games; BOS has 3.
Model angle
Weather and park remove about 0.2 runs from the total environment.
- ▼Weather + park-0.2pp
Players to watch
- Paul SkenesPIT6.7strikeouts · ±2.1
Paul Skenes · 6.7 K · last-10 6.7 vs season 6.6.
- Braxton AshcraftPIT6.1strikeouts · ±2.2
Braxton Ashcraft · 6.1 K · last-10 5.9 vs season 6.3.
- Sonny GrayBOS5.5strikeouts · ±2.7
Sonny Gray · 5.5 K · last-10 5.9 vs season 5.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
33.0%
ensemble · BOS favored
Elo Static
40.5%
P(PIT win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
39.2%
P(PIT win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
39.0%
P(PIT win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.67 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
96% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
PIT vs BOS.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
130
projections · 109 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Payton TolleBOS6.8± 3.5medium
- Paul SkenesPIT6.7± 2.1high
- Braxton AshcraftPIT6.1± 2.2high
Hits
- Ceddanne RafaelaBOS1.2± 0.8high
- Ronny SimonPIT1.1± 1.2low
- Andruw MonasterioBOS1.0± 0.7high
Total bases
- Wilyer AbreuBOS2.4± 2.7high
- Ceddanne RafaelaBOS1.9± 1.6high
- Jarren DuranBOS1.8± 1.9high
RBIs
- Caleb DurbinBOS0.9± 1.2high
- Wilyer AbreuBOS0.9± 1.0high
- Andruw MonasterioBOS0.7± 0.9high
Earned runs
- Braxton AshcraftPIT2.9± 2.2high
- Paul SkenesPIT2.8± 2.0high
- Jared JonesPIT2.6± 3.3low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
BOS
league avg
PIT
.721
OPS
.719
▶.742
.320
OBP
.318
▶.333
4.42
Runs / G
4.50
▶4.95
3.51
Team ERA
◀
4.17
4.35
1.23
WHIP
◀
1.31
1.33
8.7
K / 9
8.5
▶9.3
The One model★ Lock
Fri, Aug 14BOS★
Red Sox
74-70
vs65.5%BOS
PIT
Pirates
63-72
BOS 65.5%win prob34.5% PIT
BOS 1562 · PIT 1472Box score→
Team pages
Elsewhere in the MLB
- CardinalsCubs8/14 - 2:20 PM EDT
- MarlinsReds8/14 - 6:10 PM EDT
- White SoxTigers8/14 - 6:40 PM EDT
- OriolesRays8/14 - 7:10 PM EDT
- PadresGuardians8/14 - 7:10 PM EDT
- NationalsMets8/14 - 7:10 PM EDT
- DiamondbacksBraves8/14 - 7:15 PM EDT
- YankeesBlue Jays8/14 - 7:15 PM EDT
- MarinersAstros8/14 - 8:10 PM EDT
- RoyalsAngels8/14 - 9:38 PM EDT
- RangersAthletics8/14 - 9:40 PM EDT
- BrewersDodgers8/14 - 10:10 PM EDT
- RockiesGiants8/14 - 10:15 PM EDT
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
