Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays: MLB Prediction, Pick & Odds — Aug 14, 2026

BAL

58-63

PregameFri, 7:10 PM EDTMLB.TV

74-46

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Why this matchup

2 signals · model + market

Park factor

96 total idx

Tropicana Field run environment

Park factor boosts run scoring, so contact quality matters more tonight here.

Recent form

9-1

TB +2.3 vs BAL -0.9 margin

TB brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.

Tropicana Field · St. Petersburg, Florida

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Pregame · scouting report

The matchup, end-to-end.

Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.

Away starter

Kyle Bradish

SP · #38

7-11

W-L

3.69

ERA

1.34

WHIP

121

127.0

Last 3 starts

@TEXL(7-11)6.0 IP1 ER4 K

vsPHIL(7-10)3.0 IP2 ER3 K

@DET-4.2 IP5 ER4 K

Home starter

TBD

Probable starter not yet announced. ESPN typically posts the card 12–24 hours before first pitch.

Vegas line

Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.

Model edge

Win prob29% / 71%

LeanHome · 21pp

Confidence★ Lock

Head to head

SeriesBAL wins series 2-0

TypePreseason Series

Scouting report · pre-game

TB vs BAL.

TB enters on a 9-game win streak; BAL is 4-6 over its last 10.

71.3%

model · TB win prob

Recent form

TB9–1+2.3
BAL4–6-0.9

Situational

TB2d rest
BAL2d rest
+0.0d differential

Rest is even. TB has 9 straight road games; BAL has 6.

Model angle

Weather and park remove about 0.3 runs from the total environment.

▼Weather + park-0.3pp

Players to watch

Kyle BradishBAL
5.3strikeouts · ±3.0
Kyle Bradish · 5.3 K · last-10 5.3 vs season 5.3.
Shane BazBAL
5.3strikeouts · ±2.8
Shane Baz · 5.3 K · last-10 5.5 vs season 5.1.
Trevor RogersBAL
5.3strikeouts · ±1.8
Trevor Rogers · 5.3 K · last-10 5.8 vs season 4.6.

Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

72.0%

ensemble · TB favored

Elo Static
73.1%
P(TB win)
44%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
73.1%
P(TB win)
11%
weight
Bullpen Park
74.8%
P(TB win)
45%
weight

Disagreement

0.85 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

2 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

TB vs BAL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 114 high confidence

Strikeouts

Kyle BradishBAL
5.3± 3.0high
Shane BazBAL
5.3± 2.8high
Trevor RogersBAL
5.3± 1.8high

Hits

Chandler SimpsonTB
1.6± 1.1high
Jonathan ArandaTB
1.3± 1.1high
Yandy DiazTB
1.3± 1.4high

Total bases

Junior CamineroTB
2.4± 2.5high
Pete AlonsoBAL
2.1± 2.9high
Yandy DiazTB
2.0± 2.4high

RBIs

Junior CamineroTB
0.9± 1.2high
Liam HicksTB
0.9± 1.5high
Pete AlonsoBAL
0.7± 1.4high

Earned runs

Freddy PeraltaTB
3.5± 3.3high
Shane BazBAL
2.5± 1.5high
Brandon YoungBAL
2.2± 1.3high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

BAL

league avg

.715

OPS

.719

▶

.739

.320

OBP

.318

▶

.331

4.49

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.58

4.24

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.70

1.35

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.14

8.0

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.2

The One model★ Lock

Fri, Aug 14

BAL

Orioles

62-85

vs71.3%TB

TB★

Rays

102-46

BAL 28.7%win prob71.3% TB

TB 1605 · BAL 1456Box score→

Team pages

Baltimore OriolesTampa Bay Rays

Elsewhere in the MLB

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays

The matchup, end-to-end.

TB vs BAL.

3 sub-models, blended.

TB vs BAL.

Team rate stats vs league