Recent form
7-3
IND +7.7 vs DAL -0.5 margin
IND brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
Dallas Wings at Indiana Fever
DAL
DAL
20-14
PregameFri, 7:30 PM EDTION
IND
IND
21-12
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
3 signals · model + marketPreview · WNBA
allas Wings visit Indiana Fever Friday at 8/14 - 7:30 PM EDT. IND is 4-2 in their last 6.
Vegas opened IND as a 7.5-point favorite with the total at 186.5. IND's moneyline implies a 74% break-even, DAL the inverse.
For bettors: the IND side carries the favorite-tax, the dog gets the points and a plus-money payout. The 186.5 total reads high-scoring vs the league average.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Updated 0s ago
Team stats
DAL
Away
Stat
IND
Home
46
FG %
49
Season series
DAL leads series 1-0
May 9DAL107@IND104
DAL107@IND104Aug 14DAL@INDtoday
DAL@INDtodayAug 21IND@DALupcoming
IND@DALupcomingModel & market
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
IND -7.5
Half-pt above key 7
1.0pt· 6h
Total
186.5
High-scoring · +21.5 vs avg
Moneyline
DAL+23030%IND-28574%27· 6h
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 200 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
7.5
+1.0 since open
Total
186.5
-1.0 since open
Scouting report
DAL @ IND
Rest going in
IND +1 day
DALStandard
1 day
last game Aug 12
INDStandard
2 days
last game Aug 11
Model edge vs market
Lean onlySpread
Market
IND -7.5
Model
On the roadmap
Edge
—
Total
Market
186.5
Model
On the roadmap
Edge
—
Moneyline
Market
IND -285
Model
On the roadmap
Edge
—
Model spread derived from 21-day power-rank delta · not a true point-spread model. Total + ML model wires roadmap. Bet responsibly · 21+
Tale of the tape
DALmetricIND
20-14
Record
21-12
#4
Conf rank
#1
+2.7
Pt diff
+5.8
W1
Streak
W2
4-6
Last 10
7-3
Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.
Betting line
IND -7.5·O/U 186.5·DAL +230/IND -285
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Scouting report · pre-game
IND vs DAL.
IND is 7-3 recently; DAL is 4-6.
73.3%
model · IND win prob
Recent form
- IND7–3+7.7
- DAL4–6-0.5
Situational
- IND3d rest
- DAL2d rest
- +1.0d differential
IND has 1 more rest day. IND has 0 straight road games; DAL has 0.
Model angle
+2.3ppon IND
IND's edge is mostly line steam plus venue split. Model confidence is the main caution flag.
- ▲Line steam+2.8pp
- ▼Model confidence-1.8pp
- ▲Venue split+1.2pp
Players to watch
- Kelsey MitchellIND26.8points · ±3.9
Kelsey Mitchell · 26.8 pts · last-10 28.8 vs season 23.7.
- Caitlin ClarkIND23.4points · ±8.5
Caitlin Clark · 23.4 pts · last-10 25.1 vs season 20.8.
- Paige BueckersDAL18.8points · ±5.9
Paige Bueckers · 18.8 pts · last-10 18.2 vs season 19.7.
Head-to-head · 3-2 · last 5
IND is 3-2 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2025-06-27IND @ DAL94–86
- 2025-07-13DAL @ IND83–102
- 2025-08-01IND @ DAL88–78
- 2025-08-12DAL @ IND81–80
- 2026-05-09DAL @ IND107–104
Line move
open -238→-278toward IND
The market has moved 3.1pp toward the home side.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
74.1%
ensemble · IND favored
Elo Static
70.5%
P(IND win)
34%
weight
Elo Recent
72.1%
P(IND win)
32%
weight
Pace Efficiency
71.1%
P(IND win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.66 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
96% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
The receipts
Why we like IND.
IND's edge is mostly line steam plus venue split. Model confidence is the main caution flag.
+2.3
pp edge · IND
+3.45
CLV pp · steam
2.7u · large
on IND
76.8%
±10.9pp band
2.68u large — +2.8pp edge, quarter Kelly.
Edge
+5.8pp
+3.5pp post-cal
Kelly
10.7%
2.7% sized
Decimal
1.35
+2.8pp vs price
Contributor breakdown · sums to 2.3pp · IND over DAL
- ▲+2.8ppLine steam77% conf
The market moved 3pp toward IND since open.
- ▼-1.8ppModel confidence68% conf
IND sits near the model-market noise floor.
- ▲+1.2ppVenue split72% conf
IND's venue form is 9.1pp stronger in the recent sample.
- ▲+0.7ppRest advantage65% conf
IND has 3 days rest; DAL has 2.
- ▼-0.5ppHead to head48% conf
DAL has controlled the recent head-to-head sample.
Open price
-238
Close price
-285
Open no-vig
67.5%
Close no-vig
71.0%
Market steamed in our direction
How we read this game
- Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in DAL at IND?
- The model favors IND, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
- When is the pick logged, and can it change?
- Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
Line shopping · 1 book
Where to bet this game.
Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.
+2.3pp
best edge · IND · DraftKings
DAL
no live price
IND
★ best-285DraftKings
edge +2.3pp · implied 71.0%
| Book | DAL | IND | Best edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +230 | -285★ | +2.3 |
Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.
Player projections
IND vs DAL.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
125
projections · 105 high confidence
Points
- Kelsey MitchellIND26.8± 3.9high
- Caitlin ClarkIND23.4± 8.5high
- Paige BueckersDAL18.8± 5.9high
Rebounds
- Jessica ShepardDAL10.5± 5.1high
- Aliyah BostonIND7.4± 3.5high
- Makayla TimpsonIND5.3± 2.7high
Assists
- Caitlin ClarkIND8.4± 2.0high
- Paige BueckersDAL5.4± 2.4high
- Jessica ShepardDAL5.1± 3.0high
Blocks
- Awak KuierDAL1.2± 1.2high
- Makayla TimpsonIND1.0± 1.3high
- Aliyah BostonIND0.9± 0.9high
Steals
- Azzi FuddDAL1.7± 1.1high
- Aliyah BostonIND1.6± 1.6high
- Kelsey MitchellIND1.4± 1.4high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Team pages
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