Dallas Wings at Indiana Fever
DAL
10-6
IND
9-7
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Preview · WNBA
allas Wings visit Indiana Fever Friday at 8/14 - 7:30 PM EDT. DAL is 5-3 in their last 8. IND is 5-3 in their last 8.
The market hasn't shipped a line worth tagging key numbers on yet — check back closer to first pitch.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Team stats
DAL
Away
Stat
IND
Home
46
FG %
46
Season series
DAL leads series 1-0
DAL107@IND104DAL@INDtodayIND@DALupcomingScouting report
DAL @ IND
Model edge vs market
Lean onlyMarket
—
Model
DAL -3.2
Edge
—
Market
—
Model
On the roadmap
Edge
—
Market
—
Model
DAL
Edge
—
Model spread derived from 21-day power-rank delta · not a true point-spread model. Total + ML model wires roadmap. Bet responsibly · 21+
Tale of the tape
10-6
Record
9-7
#3
Conf rank
#3
+4.6
Pt diff
+2.7
W1
Streak
L2
7-3
Last 10
5-5
64.3
Power score
61.2
#5
Power rank
#6
Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
45.6%
ensemble · DAL favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
32%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
35%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
IND vs DAL.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
120
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Kelsey MitchellIND19.9± 5.4medium
- Caitlin ClarkIND19.8± 9.1medium
- Paige BueckersDAL18.0± 8.5medium
Rebounds
- Jessica ShepardDAL11.6± 4.5medium
- Aliyah BostonIND8.6± 2.3medium
- Monique BillingsIND4.4± 3.2medium
Assists
- Caitlin ClarkIND7.6± 3.2medium
- Paige BueckersDAL6.4± 3.9medium
- Jessica ShepardDAL5.2± 3.4medium
Blocks
- Aliyah BostonIND1.4± 1.6medium
- Azzi FuddDAL1.3± 1.6medium
- Awak KuierDAL1.1± 1.1low
Steals
- Azzi FuddDAL1.6± 1.6medium
- Aziaha JamesDAL1.2± 1.3medium
- Arike OgunbowaleDAL1.0± 1.1medium
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
DAL
league avg
IND
45.7%
FG%
44.6
▶46.4%
34.4%
3PT %
33.5
▶34.8%
87.9
PPG
85.9
▶92.4
22.7
Assists / G
18.0
20.9
10.5
Turnovers / G
13.0
15.5