Philadelphia Phillies vs Minnesota Twins: MLB Prediction, Pick & Odds — Aug 13, 2026

PHI

64-57

PregameThu, 7:30 PM EDTNetflix

MIN

59-62

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Why this matchup

1 signal · model + market

Recent form

6-4

PHI +1.1 vs MIN -0.7 margin

PHI brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.

Field of Dreams · Dyersville, Iowa

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Pregame · scouting report

The matchup, end-to-end.

Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.

Away starter

Aaron Nola

SP · #27

3-9

W-L

5.47

ERA

1.45

WHIP

129

125.0

Last 3 starts

vsTOR-5.0 IP2 ER8 K

vsWSH-6.0 IP3 ER5 K

@MIAL(3-9)5.2 IP1 ER4 K

Home starter

Taj Bradley

SP · #26

9-4

W-L

3.76

ERA

1.25

WHIP

148

131.2

Last 3 starts

@MIL-5.0 IP3 ER7 K

@SEA-6.0 IP3 ER2 K

vsKC-6.0 IP2 ER10 K

Vegas line

Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.

Model edge

Win prob45% / 55%

LeanHome · 5pp

ConfidenceLean

Head to head

SeriesSeries tied 1-1

TypePreseason Series

Scouting report · pre-game

MIN vs PHI.

MIN is 3-7 recently; PHI is 6-4.

54.6%

model · MIN win prob

Recent form

MIN3–7-0.7
PHI6–4+1.1

Situational

MIN2d rest
PHI2d rest
+0.0d differential

Rest is even. MIN has 0 straight road games; PHI has 2.

Model angle

Weather and park remove about 0.1 runs from the total environment.

▼Weather + park-0.1pp

Players to watch

Jesus LuzardoPHI
7.6strikeouts · ±3.6
Jesus Luzardo · 7.6 K · last-10 8 vs season 7.1.
Taj BradleyMIN
6.7strikeouts · ±2.9
Taj Bradley · 6.7 K · last-10 6.8 vs season 6.4.
Cristopher SanchezPHI
6.4strikeouts · ±2.9
Cristopher Sanchez · 6.4 K · last-10 6 vs season 7.

Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

55.0%

ensemble · MIN favored

Elo Static
53.3%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
55.3%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
52.9%
P(MIN win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.05 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

MIN vs PHI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 110 high confidence

Strikeouts

Jesus LuzardoPHI
7.6± 3.6high
Zack WheelerPHI
7.5± 3.6medium
Taj BradleyMIN
6.7± 2.9high

Hits

Royce LewisMIN
1.3± 1.1high
Josh BellMIN
1.2± 1.3high
Trea TurnerPHI
1.2± 1.3high

Total bases

Royce LewisMIN
2.4± 1.7high
Josh BellMIN
2.0± 2.5high
Bryce HarperPHI
1.9± 1.8high

RBIs

Josh BellMIN
0.7± 1.2high
Kaelen CulpepperMIN
0.7± 0.8low
Royce LewisMIN
0.7± 1.0high

Earned runs

Zebby MatthewsMIN
3.5± 2.6medium
Andrew PainterPHI
3.2± 2.3medium
Dean KremerMIN
3.1± 3.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

PHI

league avg

MIN

.708

OPS

.719

▶

.724

.309

OBP

.318

▶

.319

4.41

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.66

4.18

Team ERA

◀

4.16

4.59

1.30

WHIP

◀

1.30

1.38

10.0

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.4

The One modelLean

Thu, Aug 13

PHI

Phillies

82-71

vs54.6%MIN

MIN★

Twins

81-68

PHI 45.4%win prob54.6% MIN

MIN 1516 · PHI 1518Box score→

Team pages

Philadelphia PhilliesMinnesota Twins

Elsewhere in the MLB

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Philadelphia Phillies at Minnesota Twins

The matchup, end-to-end.

MIN vs PHI.

3 sub-models, blended.

MIN vs PHI.

Team rate stats vs league

3 sub-models, blended.

MIN vs PHI.