Park factor
95 total idx
Oakland Coliseum run environment
Park factor boosts run scoring, so contact quality matters more tonight here.
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Texas Rangers at Athletics
TEX
TEX
60-61
PregameFri, 9:40 PM EDTMLB.TV
ATH
ATH
47-74
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
2 signals · model + marketSutter Health Park · Sacramento, California
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Kumar Rocker
SP · #80
4-9
W-L
4.46
ERA
1.38
WHIP
103
K
111.0
IP
Last 3 starts
vsBALL(4-9)3.0 IP6 ER5 K
@HOU-5.1 IP3 ER5 K
vsSEAW(4-8)6.2 IP2 ER7 K
Home starter
Gage Jump
SP · #61
5-7
W-L
4.46
ERA
1.46
WHIP
84
K
72.2
IP
Last 3 starts
@BOSW(5-7)6.0 IP2 ER11 K
vsDETL(4-7)3.2 IP6 ER5 K
vsBOSW(4-6)6.0 IP0 ER7 K
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Win prob67% / 33%
LeanAway · 17pp
Confidence★ Lock
Head to head
SeriesSeries tied 1-1
TypePreseason Series
Scouting report · pre-game
ATH vs TEX.
ATH has dropped 3 straight; TEX is 5-5 over its last 10.
33.0%
model · ATH win prob
Recent form
- ATH2–8-3.7
- TEX5–5-0.2
Situational
- ATH2d rest
- TEX2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. ATH has 0 straight road games; TEX has 3.
Model angle
Weather and park remove about 0.4 runs from the total environment.
- ▼Weather + park-0.4pp
Players to watch
- Jacob deGromTEX6.6strikeouts · ±2.2
Jacob deGrom · 6.6 K · last-10 6.6 vs season 6.5.
- MacKenzie GoreTEX6.2strikeouts · ±1.8
MacKenzie Gore · 6.2 K · last-10 6.3 vs season 6.
- Kumar RockerTEX5.1strikeouts · ±1.7
Kumar Rocker · 5.1 K · last-10 5.4 vs season 4.7.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
33.3%
ensemble · TEX favored
Elo Static
39.6%
P(ATH win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
39.6%
P(ATH win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
40.2%
P(ATH win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.28 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
98% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
ATH vs TEX.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
126
projections · 107 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Jacob deGromTEX6.6± 2.2high
- Gage JumpATH6.3± 3.7low
- MacKenzie GoreTEX6.2± 1.8high
Hits
- Brandon NimmoTEX1.3± 1.0high
- Jacob WilsonATH1.0± 0.7high
- Tyler SoderstromATH1.0± 0.3high
Total bases
- Tyler SoderstromATH2.1± 1.1high
- Brandon NimmoTEX2.1± 2.0high
- Zack GelofATH1.8± 2.1high
RBIs
- Ezequiel DuranTEX0.7± 1.3high
- Tyler SoderstromATH0.6± 0.7high
- Brandon NimmoTEX0.6± 1.0high
Earned runs
- Jack PerkinsATH3.4± 1.8high
- Kumar RockerTEX2.9± 2.5high
- MacKenzie GoreTEX2.8± 2.2high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
TEX
league avg
ATH
.714
OPS
.719
.715
.317
OBP
.318
.316
4.11
Runs / G
4.50
▶4.33
4.25
Team ERA
◀
4.17
5.51
1.29
WHIP
◀
1.31
1.51
8.6
K / 9
8.5
8.6
The One model★ Lock
Fri, Aug 14TEX★
Rangers
76-70
vs67.1%TEX
ATH
Athletics
56-88
TEX 67.1%win prob32.9% ATH
TEX 1497 · ATH 1400Box score→
Team pages
Elsewhere in the MLB
- CardinalsCubs8/14 - 2:20 PM EDT
- MarlinsReds8/14 - 6:10 PM EDT
- Red SoxPirates8/14 - 6:40 PM EDT
- White SoxTigers8/14 - 6:40 PM EDT
- OriolesRays8/14 - 7:10 PM EDT
- PadresGuardians8/14 - 7:10 PM EDT
- NationalsMets8/14 - 7:10 PM EDT
- DiamondbacksBraves8/14 - 7:15 PM EDT
- YankeesBlue Jays8/14 - 7:15 PM EDT
- MarinersAstros8/14 - 8:10 PM EDT
- RoyalsAngels8/14 - 9:38 PM EDT
- BrewersDodgers8/14 - 10:10 PM EDT
- RockiesGiants8/14 - 10:15 PM EDT
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
