Park factor
94 total idx
Oracle Park run environment
Park factor boosts run scoring, so contact quality matters more tonight here.
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Colorado Rockies at San Francisco Giants
COL
COL
48-73
PregameFri, 10:15 PM EDTMLB.TV
SF
SF
50-71
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
2 signals · model + marketOracle Park · San Francisco, California
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Kyle Freeland
SP · #21
3-10
W-L
6.63
ERA
1.50
WHIP
96
K
112.2
IP
Last 3 starts
@STL-4.1 IP1 ER3 K
vsKCW(3-10)9.0 IP1 ER8 K
@MILL(2-10)5.1 IP5 ER2 K
Home starter
Landen Roupp
SP · #65
7-11
W-L
4.22
ERA
1.29
WHIP
123
K
123.2
IP
Last 3 starts
vsDETL(7-11)5.1 IP1 ER3 K
@SDL(7-10)4.2 IP5 ER6 K
vsMILL(7-9)3.2 IP4 ER1 K
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Win prob42% / 58%
LeanHome · 8pp
ConfidenceEdge
Head to head
SeriesSeries tied 1-1
TypePreseason Series
Scouting report · pre-game
SF vs COL.
SF is 3-7 recently; COL is 4-6.
58.3%
model · SF win prob
Recent form
- SF3–7-1.2
- COL4–6-1.1
Situational
- SF2d rest
- COL2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. SF has 0 straight road games; COL has 6.
Model angle
Weather and park remove about 0.5 runs from the total environment.
- ▼Weather + park-0.5pp
Players to watch
- Landen RouppSF4.9strikeouts · ±2.1
Landen Roupp · 4.9 K · last-10 4.6 vs season 5.3.
- Kyle FreelandCOL4.8strikeouts · ±2.6
Kyle Freeland · 4.8 K · last-10 5.1 vs season 4.4.
- Logan WebbSF4.7strikeouts · ±2.1
Logan Webb · 4.7 K · last-10 4.5 vs season 4.9.
Head-to-head · 4-2 · last 6
SF is 4-2 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2026-07-05SF @ COL6–7
- 2026-07-09COL @ SF2–8
- 2026-07-10COL @ SF4–3
- 2026-07-11COL @ SF2–4
- 2026-07-12COL @ SF1–3
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
58.6%
ensemble · SF favored
Elo Static
57.8%
P(SF win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
60.7%
P(SF win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
56.3%
P(SF win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
1.82 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
88% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
SF vs COL.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
119
projections · 87 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Landen RouppSF4.9± 2.1high
- Kyle FreelandCOL4.8± 2.6high
- Logan WebbSF4.7± 2.1high
Hits
- Jake McCarthyCOL1.4± 1.4high
- Cole CarriggCOL1.1± 1.0high
- Willi CastroCOL1.1± 0.8high
Total bases
- Jake McCarthyCOL2.4± 2.9high
- Hunter GoodmanCOL2.0± 3.3high
- Willi CastroCOL2.0± 1.8high
RBIs
- Hunter GoodmanCOL0.8± 1.6high
- Jake McCarthyCOL0.7± 1.3high
- Brett SullivanCOL0.6± 1.1high
Earned runs
- Kyle FreelandCOL3.7± 2.1high
- Michael LorenzenCOL3.2± 2.0high
- Ryan FeltnerCOL3.2± 2.4medium
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
COL
league avg
SF
.744
OPS
◀
.719
.712
.323
OBP
◀
.318
.306
4.77
Runs / G
◀
4.50
4.07
5.47
Team ERA
4.17
▶4.31
1.52
WHIP
1.31
▶1.35
7.0
K / 9
8.5
▶7.7
The One modelEdge
Fri, Aug 14COL
Rockies
54-87
vs58.3%SF
SF★
Giants
69-82
COL 41.7%win prob58.3% SF
SF 1455 · COL 1425Box score→
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
