Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CHC at WSH?

The model favors CHC, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Chicago Cubs vs Washington Nationals: MLB Prediction, Pick & Odds — Aug 13, 2026

CHC

71-50

PregameThu, 4:05 PM EDTMLB.TV

WSH

59-63

ATS/CHC -1.5O/U/8.5ML/CHC-134

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Why this matchup

1 signal · model + market

Recent form

8-2

CHC +2.5 vs WSH -0.2 margin

CHC brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.

Nationals Park · Washington, District of Columbia

Line movement

200 snapshots

WSH spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

WSH no-vig %

43.9%

open 44.9% · -1.0

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = WSH favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Pregame · scouting report

The matchup, end-to-end.

Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.

Away starter

Kevin Gausman

SP · #12

6-10

W-L

4.29

ERA

1.26

WHIP

131

134.1

Last 3 starts

@KCW(6-10)7.0 IP2 ER4 K

vsSTLW(5-10)5.2 IP1 ER4 K

@BOSL(4-10)6.0 IP3 ER6 K

Home starter

Cade Cavalli

SP · #24

9-5

W-L

3.57

ERA

1.30

WHIP

141

128.2

Last 3 starts

vsCINW(9-5)6.0 IP3 ER8 K

@ATLL(8-5)6.0 IP2 ER3 K

vsTORW(8-4)6.0 IP2 ER3 K

Vegas line

Spread-1.5

TotalO/U 8.5

Money-134 / +125

Model edge

Win prob68% / 33%

LeanAway · 18pp

Confidence★ Lock

Head to head

SeriesCHC lead series 2-0

TypeCurrent Series

Place a bet

Take CHC on the model side.

Our model leans this way; both DraftKings and FanDuel are open below.

Model side · moneyline

-134Bet CHC ML↗-134Bet CHC ML↗

Other markets

-1.5Bet the run line↗-1.5Bet the run line↗

O/U 8.5Bet the total↗O/U 8.5Bet the total↗

21+ in most states. Lines refreshed at the moment of fetch. We may earn a referral fee on book signups — your odds and terms are unchanged.

Scouting report · pre-game

WSH vs CHC.

WSH is 4-6 recently; CHC is 8-2.

32.5%

model · WSH win prob

Recent form

WSH4–6-0.2
CHC8–2+2.5

Situational

WSH1d restB2B
CHC1d restB2B
+0.0d differential

Rest is even. WSH has 0 straight road games; CHC has 5.

Model angle

+11.2ppon CHC

CHC's edge is mostly model confidence plus venue split. Travel burden is the main caution flag. Weather and park remove about 0.1 runs from the total environment.

▼Weather + park-0.1pp
▲Model confidence+1.5pp
▼Travel burden-1.1pp

Players to watch

Cade CavalliWSH
5.9strikeouts · ±3.7
Cade Cavalli · 5.9 K · last-10 6 vs season 5.6.
Kevin GausmanCHC
5.3strikeouts · ±2.4
Kevin Gausman · 5.3 K · last-10 5.2 vs season 5.5.
Shota ImanagaCHC
5.1strikeouts · ±1.5
Shota Imanaga · 5.1 K · last-10 4.9 vs season 5.4.

Head-to-head · 0-2 · last 2

WSH is 0-2 in the recent head-to-head sample.

2026-08-11CHC @ WSH8–6
2026-08-12CHC @ WSH12–6

Line move

open +113→+118toward CHC

The market has moved 1.1pp toward the away side.

Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

32.6%

ensemble · CHC favored

Elo Static
39.3%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
40.2%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
38.8%
P(WSH win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.58 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Why we like CHC.

CHC's edge is mostly model confidence plus venue split. Travel burden is the main caution flag.

+11.2

pp edge · CHC

+1.20

CLV pp

5.0u · large

on CHC

78.0%

±4.4pp band

5u large — +20.7pp edge, quarter Kelly capped.

Edge

+21.7pp

+10.5pp post-cal

Kelly

48.5%

5.0% sized

Decimal

1.75

+20.7pp vs price

Contributor breakdown · sums to 11.2pp · CHC over WSH

▲
Model confidence90% conf
CHC clears the model's lock threshold.
+1.5pp
▼
Travel burden58% conf
CHC is carrying the heavier road load, so the edge gets a haircut.
-1.1pp
▲
Venue split72% conf
CHC's venue form is 20.5pp stronger in the recent sample.
+1.0pp
▲
Line steam67% conf
The market moved 1pp toward CHC since open.
+0.4pp
▲
Head to head48% conf
CHC has taken 2 of the last 3 meetings.
+0.2pp

Open price

-136

Close price

-134

Open no-vig

55.1%

Close no-vig

56.3%

Market came to the model

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CHC at WSH?: The model favors CHC, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+11.2pp

best edge · CHC · DraftKings

CHC

★ best

-134DraftKings

edge +11.2pp · implied 56.3%

WSH

no live price

Book	CHC	WSH	Best edge
DraftKings	-134★	+125	+11.2

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

WSH vs CHC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 95 high confidence

Strikeouts

Cade CavalliWSH
5.9± 3.6high
Kevin GausmanCHC
5.3± 2.4high
Shota ImanagaCHC
5.1± 1.4high

Hits

Alex BregmanCHC
1.2± 1.1high
Michael BuschCHC
1.1± 1.0high
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

Alex BregmanCHC
2.5± 3.6high
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
2.3± 2.9high
Seiya SuzukiCHC
2.0± 1.9high

RBIs

Alex BregmanCHC
1.0± 2.1high
Seiya SuzukiCHC
0.9± 0.9high
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
0.8± 1.3high

Earned runs

Kevin GausmanCHC
3.0± 2.1high
Jake IrvinWSH
2.9± 2.6low
David PetersonCHC
2.7± 2.8high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CHC

league avg

WSH

.761

OPS

.719

▶

.769

.340

OBP

◀

.318

.328

5.24

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.37

4.08

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.76

1.26

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.39

7.7

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.6

The One model★ Lock

Thu, Aug 13

CHC★

Cubs

84-61

vs67.5%CHC

WSH

Nationals

70-70

CHC 67.5%win prob32.5% WSH

CHC 1583 · WSH 1484Box score→

Team pages

Chicago CubsWashington Nationals

Elsewhere in the MLB

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Chicago Cubs at Washington Nationals

The matchup, end-to-end.

Take CHC on the model side.

WSH vs CHC.

3 sub-models, blended.

Why we like CHC.

Where to bet this game.

WSH vs CHC.

Team rate stats vs league

Where to bet this game.