Recent form
7-3
DET +3.7 vs CHW -0.7 margin
DET brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
Chicago White Sox at Detroit Tigers
CHW
CHW
62-57
PregameFri, 6:40 PM EDTMLB.TV
DET
DET
59-61
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
1 signal · model + marketComerica Park · Detroit, Michigan
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
TBD
Probable starter not yet announced. ESPN typically posts the card 12–24 hours before first pitch.
Home starter
Jackson Jobe
SP · #21
1-0
W-L
0.00
ERA
0.40
WHIP
4
K
5.0
IP
Last 1 starts
@SFW(1-0)5.0 IP0 ER4 K
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Win prob48% / 52%
LeanTossup
ConfidenceTossup
Head to head
SeriesSeries tied 3-3
TypeRegular Season Series
Scouting report · pre-game
DET vs CHW.
DET is 7-3 recently; CHW is 4-6.
52.1%
model · DET win prob
Recent form
- DET7–3+3.7
- CHW4–6-0.7
Situational
- DET2d rest
- CHW2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. DET has 0 straight road games; CHW has 0.
Model angle
Weather and park add about 0.1 runs from the total environment.
- ▲Weather + park+0.1pp
Players to watch
- Sean BurkeCHW7.3strikeouts · ±2.3
Sean Burke · 7.3 K · last-10 7.9 vs season 6.3.
- Luis CastilloCHW4.5strikeouts · ±2.1
Luis Castillo · 4.5 K · last-10 4.5 vs season 4.6.
- Framber ValdezDET4.5strikeouts · ±2.8
Framber Valdez · 4.5 K · last-10 4.5 vs season 4.4.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
52.4%
ensemble · DET favored
Elo Static
50.4%
P(DET win)
44%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.4%
P(DET win)
11%
weight
Bullpen Park
51.4%
P(DET win)
45%
weight
Disagreement
0.50 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
97% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
2 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
DET vs CHW.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
119
projections · 107 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Sean BurkeCHW7.3± 2.3high
- Troy MeltonDET5.7± 2.4low
- Luis CastilloCHW4.5± 2.1high
Hits
- Javier BaezDET1.2± 1.2high
- Kevin McGonigleDET1.2± 1.2high
- Spencer TorkelsonDET1.2± 0.8high
Total bases
- Eduardo ValenciaDET2.2± 3.5medium
- Dillon DinglerDET2.0± 2.4high
- Chase MeidrothCHW1.8± 2.9high
RBIs
- Eduardo ValenciaDET0.9± 1.9medium
- Dillon DinglerDET0.8± 1.0high
- Gleyber TorresDET0.7± 0.9high
Earned runs
- Davis MartinCHW3.2± 3.3high
- Luis CastilloCHW2.7± 1.8high
- Framber ValdezDET2.6± 2.1high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
CHW
league avg
DET
.723
OPS
.719
.727
.316
OBP
.318
▶.320
4.76
Runs / G
◀
4.50
4.58
4.07
Team ERA
4.17
▶3.50
1.30
WHIP
1.31
▶1.21
8.6
K / 9
◀
8.5
8.4
The One modelTossup
Fri, Aug 14CHW
White Sox
78-64
vs52.1%DET
DET★
Tigers
62-76
CHW 47.9%win prob52.1% DET
DET 1500 · CHW 1521Box score→
Team pages
Elsewhere in the MLB
- CardinalsCubs8/14 - 2:20 PM EDT
- MarlinsReds8/14 - 6:10 PM EDT
- Red SoxPirates8/14 - 6:40 PM EDT
- OriolesRays8/14 - 7:10 PM EDT
- PadresGuardians8/14 - 7:10 PM EDT
- NationalsMets8/14 - 7:10 PM EDT
- DiamondbacksBraves8/14 - 7:15 PM EDT
- YankeesBlue Jays8/14 - 7:15 PM EDT
- MarinersAstros8/14 - 8:10 PM EDT
- RoyalsAngels8/14 - 9:38 PM EDT
- RangersAthletics8/14 - 9:40 PM EDT
- BrewersDodgers8/14 - 10:10 PM EDT
- RockiesGiants8/14 - 10:15 PM EDT
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
