HomeScoresLiveTonight's picksPlay
LAST NIGHT · MLBA. Bregman (CHC): 3 H · 3 HR · 7 RBI in a win over WSH — Standout Index 97
LAST NIGHT · MLBL. Castillo (CHW): 7.0 IP · 10 K in a win over CIN — Standout Index 93
TRANSACTION · MLBDodgers: Recalled RHP Landon Knock from Oklahoma City (PCL) (Aug 12)
LAST NIGHT · MLBT. Grisham (NYY): 3 H · 2 HR · 4 RBI in a win over SEA — Standout Index 91
LAST NIGHT · MLBD. Swanson (CHC): 2 H · 1 HR · 2 RBI in a win over WSH
TRANSACTION · MLBPadres: Optioned RHP David Morgan to El Paso (PCL) (Aug 12)
LAST NIGHT · WNBAT. Hayes (GS): 22 PTS · 6 REB · 5 AST in a win over CHI
LAST NIGHT · WNBAP. Bueckers (DAL): 22 PTS · 3 REB · 8 AST in a win over TOR
TRANSACTION · MLBRoyals: Sent 3B Maikel Garcia on a rehab assignment to Northwest Arkansas (TL) (Aug 12)
TRANSACTION · NBASuns: Waived F Harwood Highsmith (Aug 12)
TRANSACTION · NFLFalcons: Reverted DT Le'Meke Brockington and S Malik Verdon to injured reserve after they…
TRANSACTION · NFLBills: Signed DB Anthony Kendall (Aug 12)
TONIGHT · WNBAATL @ CON, 8/13 - 7:00 PM EDT — ATL -10.5
LAST NIGHT · MLBA. Bregman (CHC): 3 H · 3 HR · 7 RBI in a win over WSH — Standout Index 97
LAST NIGHT · MLBL. Castillo (CHW): 7.0 IP · 10 K in a win over CIN — Standout Index 93
TRANSACTION · MLBDodgers: Recalled RHP Landon Knock from Oklahoma City (PCL) (Aug 12)
LAST NIGHT · MLBT. Grisham (NYY): 3 H · 2 HR · 4 RBI in a win over SEA — Standout Index 91
LAST NIGHT · MLBD. Swanson (CHC): 2 H · 1 HR · 2 RBI in a win over WSH
TRANSACTION · MLBPadres: Optioned RHP David Morgan to El Paso (PCL) (Aug 12)
LAST NIGHT · WNBAT. Hayes (GS): 22 PTS · 6 REB · 5 AST in a win over CHI
LAST NIGHT · WNBAP. Bueckers (DAL): 22 PTS · 3 REB · 8 AST in a win over TOR
TRANSACTION · MLBRoyals: Sent 3B Maikel Garcia on a rehab assignment to Northwest Arkansas (TL) (Aug 12)
TRANSACTION · NBASuns: Waived F Harwood Highsmith (Aug 12)
TRANSACTION · NFLFalcons: Reverted DT Le'Meke Brockington and S Malik Verdon to injured reserve after they…
TRANSACTION · NFLBills: Signed DB Anthony Kendall (Aug 12)
TONIGHT · WNBAATL @ CON, 8/13 - 7:00 PM EDT — ATL -10.5
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THE ONE Analytics
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New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays

NYY
NYY

NYY

68-52

PregameFri, 7:15 PM EDTApple TV
TOR
TOR

TOR

59-63

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Why this matchup

1 signal · model + market

Recent form

7-3

TOR +0.4 vs NYY +0.1 margin

TOR brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.

Rogers Centre · Toronto, Ontario
⤓

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

›

Pregame · scouting report

The matchup, end-to-end.

Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.

Away starter

Gerrit Cole

Gerrit Cole

SP · #45

6-5

W-L

3.35

ERA

1.08

WHIP

87

K

80.2

IP

Last 3 starts

vsATLW(6-5)7.0 IP2 ER9 K
@CHCW(5-5)5.2 IP1 ER5 K
@CHWW(4-5)6.0 IP0 ER7 K

Home starter

Shane Bieber

Shane Bieber

SP · #57

3-2

W-L

5.48

ERA

1.66

WHIP

32

K

42.2

IP

Last 3 starts

@PHI-5.2 IP5 ER4 K
@HOUW(3-2)5.2 IP1 ER6 K
@WSHL(2-2)0.2 IP4 ER0 K

Vegas line

Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.

Model edge

Win prob62% / 38%
LeanAway · 12pp
ConfidenceEdge

Head to head

SeriesNYY win series 3-1
TypePreseason Series

Scouting report · pre-game

TOR vs NYY.

TOR enters on a 3-game win streak; NYY is 6-4 over its last 10.

37.9%

model · TOR win prob

Recent form

  • TOR7–3+0.4
  • NYY6–4+0.1

Situational

  • TOR2d rest
  • NYY2d rest
  • +0.0d differential

Rest is even. TOR has 0 straight road games; NYY has 0.

Model angle

Weather and park add about 0.1 runs from the total environment.

  • ▲Weather + park+0.1pp

Players to watch

  • Dylan CeaseTOR
    8.4strikeouts · ±2.6

    Dylan Cease · 8.4 K · last-10 8.4 vs season 8.4.

  • Cam SchlittlerNYY
    8.1strikeouts · ±2.7

    Cam Schlittler · 8.1 K · last-10 8.6 vs season 7.3.

  • Ryan WeathersNYY
    5.7strikeouts · ±1.5

    Ryan Weathers · 5.7 K · last-10 5.5 vs season 5.9.

Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

36.2%

ensemble · NYY favored

  • Elo Static

    42.5%

    P(TOR win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    39.9%

    P(TOR win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    42.2%

    P(TOR win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.16 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

TOR vs NYY.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 101 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Dylan CeaseTOR
    8.4± 2.6high
  • Cam SchlittlerNYY
    8.1± 2.7high
  • Gerrit ColeNYY
    6.6± 2.7low

Hits

  • Brett BatemanTOR
    1.2± 1.0low
  • George Lombard Jr.NYY
    1.1± 0.9low
  • Alejandro KirkTOR
    1.1± 1.2high

Total bases

  • Trent GrishamNYY
    2.3± 3.5high
  • Luis Garcia Jr.NYY
    2.1± 3.0high
  • George Lombard Jr.NYY
    2.0± 2.5low

RBIs

  • Trent GrishamNYY
    0.7± 1.3high
  • Andres GimenezTOR
    0.6± 1.1high
  • Ernie ClementTOR
    0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

  • Max ScherzerTOR
    3.2± 3.7low
  • Shane BieberTOR
    2.9± 3.0low
  • Will WarrenNYY
    2.8± 2.4high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

NYY

NYY

league avg

TOR

TOR

.724

OPS

◀

.719

.681

.311

OBP

◀

.318

.304

4.54

Runs / G

◀

4.50

3.95

3.30

Team ERA

◀

4.17

3.98

1.18

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.32

9.1

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.8

The One modelEdge
Fri, Aug 14
NYY

NYY★

Yankees

79-64

vs62.2%NYY

TOR

Blue Jays

63-92

TOR
NYY 62.2%win prob37.8% TOR
NYY 1535 · TOR 1459Box score→

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

68%Last 7 · 70-33
64%Last 30 · 283-161
Receipts →

Team pages

New York YankeesatToronto Blue Jays

Elsewhere in the MLB

  • Cardinals@Cubs8/14 - 2:20 PM EDT
  • Marlins@Reds8/14 - 6:10 PM EDT
  • Red Sox@Pirates8/14 - 6:40 PM EDT
  • White Sox@Tigers8/14 - 6:40 PM EDT
  • Orioles@Rays8/14 - 7:10 PM EDT
  • Padres@Guardians8/14 - 7:10 PM EDT
  • Nationals@Mets8/14 - 7:10 PM EDT
  • Diamondbacks@Braves8/14 - 7:15 PM EDT
  • Mariners@Astros8/14 - 8:10 PM EDT
  • Royals@Angels8/14 - 9:38 PM EDT
  • Rangers@Athletics8/14 - 9:40 PM EDT
  • Brewers@Dodgers8/14 - 10:10 PM EDT
  • Rockies@Giants8/14 - 10:15 PM EDT
MLB·Fri, Aug 14·8/14 - 7:15 PM EDT/SeriesNYY win series 3-1

Preview · MLB

New York Yankees visit Toronto Blue Jays Friday at 8/14 - 7:15 PM EDT. TOR arrives on a 3-game win streak (8-4 in their last 12).

The market hasn't shipped a line worth tagging key numbers on yet — check back closer to first pitch.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Updated 0s ago

MLB · New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays · pregame

MLB · Box score

8/14 - 7:15 PM EDT

No player stats available yet.

No player stats available yet.

Team stats

NYY

Away

Stat

TOR

Home

545

Runs

482

921

Hits

998

63

Errors

77

1642

TB

1547

169

HR

115

440

BB

334

1099

K

889

0

LOB

0

Season series

NYY lead series 4-3

May 18TORTOR6@NYYNYY7
May 19TORTOR4@NYYNYY5
May 20TORTOR2@NYYNYY1
May 21TORTOR2@NYYNYY0
Jun 12NYYNYY5@TORTOR8
Jun 13NYYNYY3@TORTOR1
Jun 14NYYNYY8@TORTOR3
Aug 14NYYNYY@TORTORtoday
Aug 15NYYNYY@TORTORupcoming
Aug 16NYYNYY@TORTORupcoming
Aug 21TORTOR@NYYNYYupcoming
Aug 22TORTOR@NYYNYYupcoming
Aug 23TORTOR@NYYNYYupcoming

Season series

NYY win series 3-1

Feb 24NYYNYY8@TORTOR7
Feb 28TORTOR1@NYYNYY5
Mar 11TORTOR1@NYYNYY8
Mar 19NYYNYY0@TORTOR11

Pitching matchup · today

ESPN · season stats
NYYNYYSP
G. Cole

G. Cole

#45 · 6-5

ERA

3.35

K

87

SV

—

Last 3 starts

8/8vsATLATL7.0 IP · 2 ER · 9 KW(6-5)
8/2@CHCCHC5.2 IP · 1 ER · 5 KW(5-5)
7/28@CHWCHW6.0 IP · 0 ER · 7 KW(4-5)
VS
TORTORSP
S. Bieber

S. Bieber

#57 · 3-2

ERA

5.48

K

32

SV

—

Last 3 starts

8/9@PHIPHI5.2 IP · 5 ER · 4 K-
8/4@HOUHOU5.2 IP · 1 ER · 6 KW(3-2)
7/28@WSHWSH0.2 IP · 4 ER · 0 KL(2-2)

Scouting report

NYY @ TOR

8/14 - 7:15 PM EDT
StorylineTOR on a 3-game roll.

Rest going in

NYYStandard

1 day

last game Aug 12

TORStandard

1 day

last game Aug 12

Tale of the tape

NYYmetricTOR

68-52

Record

59-63

#2

Conf rank

#10

+0.7

Pt diff

-0.4

W2

Streak

W3

6-4

Last 10

7-3

Bullpen used yesterday

NYY

5.0 bullpen IP · heavy

  • F. Cruz0.1 IP9 P
  • T. Hill1.0 IP13 P
  • P. Blackburn1.2 IP17 P
  • B. Headrick1.0 IP15 P
  • Y. De los Santos1.0 IP16 P

W 10-5 · Aug 12

TOR

3.0 bullpen IP · heavy

  • M. Fluharty1.0 IP13 P
  • T. Rogers1.0 IP11 P
  • M. Waldron0.1 IP16 P
  • L. Varland0.2 IP5 P

W 6-4 · Aug 12

Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.