Recent form
7-3
SD +1.3 vs CLE -1.0 margin
SD brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
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San Diego Padres at Cleveland Guardians
SD
SD
65-57
PregameFri, 7:10 PM EDTMLB.TV
CLE
CLE
59-62
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
1 signal · model + marketProgressive Field · Cleveland, Ohio
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Michael King
SP · #34
7-8
W-L
3.37
ERA
1.17
WHIP
120
K
136.1
IP
Last 3 starts
vsHOUW(7-8)6.0 IP1 ER6 K
@ARIL(6-8)5.0 IP3 ER5 K
vsCOL-6.0 IP4 ER6 K
Home starter
Gavin Williams
SP · #32
11-6
W-L
3.55
ERA
1.04
WHIP
185
K
144.2
IP
Last 3 starts
@CHW-5.2 IP2 ER7 K
vsARIW(11-6)5.2 IP0 ER10 K
@CINL(10-6)7.0 IP2 ER12 K
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Win prob46% / 54%
LeanHome · 4pp
ConfidenceTossup
Head to head
SeriesSeries tied 1-1
TypePreseason Series
Scouting report · pre-game
CLE vs SD.
CLE is 3-7 recently; SD is 7-3.
53.7%
model · CLE win prob
Recent form
- CLE3–7-1.0
- SD7–3+1.3
Situational
- CLE2d rest
- SD2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. CLE has 5 straight road games; SD has 0.
Model angle
Weather and park remove about 0.1 runs from the total environment.
- ▼Weather + park-0.1pp
Players to watch
- Gavin WilliamsCLE8.2strikeouts · ±2.8
Gavin Williams · 8.2 K · last-10 8.6 vs season 7.7.
- Joey CantilloCLE6.0strikeouts · ±2.3
Joey Cantillo · 6 K · last-10 6.5 vs season 5.3.
- Parker MessickCLE5.6strikeouts · ±3.1
Parker Messick · 5.6 K · last-10 5.5 vs season 5.7.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
53.7%
ensemble · CLE favored
Elo Static
52.4%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
52.2%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
52.6%
P(CLE win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.16 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
99% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
CLE vs SD.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
130
projections · 118 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Gavin WilliamsCLE8.2± 2.8high
- Joey CantilloCLE6.0± 2.3high
- Parker MessickCLE5.6± 3.1high
Hits
- Steven KwanCLE1.4± 0.8high
- Chase DeLauterCLE1.3± 1.0high
- Jackson MerrillSD1.2± 0.8high
Total bases
- Jackson MerrillSD2.3± 1.5high
- Fernando Tatis Jr.SD2.1± 2.2high
- Chase DeLauterCLE2.0± 1.9high
RBIs
- Jackson MerrillSD0.9± 0.7high
- Angel MartinezCLE0.8± 1.9high
- Nathaniel LoweCLE0.8± 1.1high
Earned runs
- Walker BuehlerSD2.9± 2.8high
- Tanner BibeeCLE2.6± 1.8high
- Gavin WilliamsCLE2.4± 2.1high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
SD
league avg
CLE
.702
OPS
◀
.719
.684
.314
OBP
.318
.314
4.28
Runs / G
◀
4.50
3.99
4.10
Team ERA
4.17
▶3.84
1.32
WHIP
1.31
▶1.27
8.3
K / 9
8.5
▶9.4
The One modelTossup
Fri, Aug 14SD
Padres
74-69
vs53.8%CLE
CLE★
Guardians
79-68
SD 46.2%win prob53.8% CLE
CLE 1522 · SD 1529Box score→
Team pages
Elsewhere in the MLB
- CardinalsCubs8/14 - 2:20 PM EDT
- MarlinsReds8/14 - 6:10 PM EDT
- Red SoxPirates8/14 - 6:40 PM EDT
- White SoxTigers8/14 - 6:40 PM EDT
- OriolesRays8/14 - 7:10 PM EDT
- NationalsMets8/14 - 7:10 PM EDT
- DiamondbacksBraves8/14 - 7:15 PM EDT
- YankeesBlue Jays8/14 - 7:15 PM EDT
- MarinersAstros8/14 - 8:10 PM EDT
- RoyalsAngels8/14 - 9:38 PM EDT
- RangersAthletics8/14 - 9:40 PM EDT
- BrewersDodgers8/14 - 10:10 PM EDT
- RockiesGiants8/14 - 10:15 PM EDT
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
