Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in WSH at LV?

The model favors LV, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

WSH

19-13

PregameThu, 10:00 PM EDTPrime Video

23-11

ATS/LV -6.5O/U/169.5ML/LV-270

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Why this matchup

2 signals · model + market

Recent form

6-4

LV +2.7 vs WSH +1.8 margin

LV brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.

Model rank

+106.0

LV Elo vs WSH Elo

LV owns the cleaner matchup rating, forcing WSH uphill early today again.

WNBAThu, Aug 138/13 - 10:00 PM EDTSeriestied 1-1VegasLV -6.5

Preview · WNBA

ashington Mystics visit Las Vegas Aces Thursday at 8/13 - 10:00 PM EDT. WSH is rolling — 5-1 in their last 6. LV is 5-3 in their last 8.

Vegas opened LV as a 6.5-point favorite with the total at 169.5. LV's moneyline implies a 73% break-even, WSH the inverse.

For bettors: the LV side carries the favorite-tax, the dog gets the points and a plus-money payout. The 169.5 total reads near the league average.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Updated 0s ago

Team stats

WSH

Away

Stat

Home

FG %

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Jul 22

LV99@

WSH100

Aug 12

WSH76@

LV86

Aug 14

WSH@

LVtoday

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LV -6.5

Half-pt below key 7

Total

169.5

Standard · +4.5 vs avg

1.0pt· 6h

Moneyline

WSH+22031%

LV-27073%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LV -6.5↗SpreadBet LV -6.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

6.5

0.0 since open

Total

169.5

-1.0 since open

Scouting report

WSH @ LV

8/13 - 10:00 PM EDT

Rest going in

WSHStandard

2 days

last game Aug 11

LVStandard

2 days

last game Aug 11

Model edge vs market

Pass · split signal

Spread

Market

LV -6.5

Model

WSH -19.5

Edge

split

Total

Market

169.5

Model

On the roadmap

Edge

—

Moneyline

Market

LV -270

Model

WSH

Edge

fading market

Model spread derived from 21-day power-rank delta · not a true point-spread model. Total + ML model wires roadmap. Bet responsibly · 21+

Tale of the tape

WSHmetricLV

19-13

Record

23-11

Conf rank

-0.9

Pt diff

+3.6

Streak

7-3

Last 10

6-4

77.3

Power score

57.8

Power rank

47.6

Sched ahead

74.6

Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.

Betting line

LV -6.5·O/U 169.5·WSH +220/LV -270

DraftKings · via ESPN

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Scouting report · pre-game

LV vs WSH.

LV is 6-4 recently; WSH is 7-3.

76.5%

model · LV win prob

Recent form

LV6–4+2.7
WSH7–3+1.8

Situational

LV2d rest
WSH2d rest
+0.0d differential

Rest is even. LV has 0 straight road games; WSH has 1.

Model angle

+6.5ppon LV

LV's edge is mostly model confidence plus venue split. The signals lean the same way.

▲Model confidence+0.9pp
▲Venue split+0.4pp
▲Head to head+0.2pp

Players to watch

A'ja WilsonLV
26.1points · ±8.2
A'ja Wilson · 26.1 pts · last-10 26.4 vs season 25.6.
Jackie YoungLV
20.5points · ±7.4
Jackie Young · 20.5 pts · last-10 22.1 vs season 18.2.
Shakira AustinWSH
19.1points · ±4.4
Shakira Austin · 19.1 pts · last-10 20.9 vs season 16.3.

Head-to-head · 2-3 · last 5

LV is 2-3 in the recent head-to-head sample.

2025-06-27WSH @ LV94–83
2025-07-10LV @ WSH68–70
2025-08-23LV @ WSH91–81
2026-07-22LV @ WSH99–100
2026-08-11WSH @ LV76–86

Line move

open -278→-278flat

The home moneyline has stayed mostly flat.

Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

80.1%

ensemble · LV favored

Elo Static
73.4%
P(LV win)
34%
weight
Elo Recent
77.4%
P(LV win)
32%
weight
Pace Efficiency
78.4%
P(LV win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

2.18 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

86% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Why we like LV.

LV's edge is mostly model confidence plus venue split. The signals lean the same way.

+6.5

pp edge · LV

0.00

CLV pp

5.0u · large

on LV

80.2%

±8.2pp band

5u large — +7.2pp edge, quarter Kelly capped.

Edge

+10.2pp

+3.7pp post-cal

Kelly

26.7%

5.0% sized

Decimal

1.37

+7.2pp vs price

Contributor breakdown · sums to 6.5pp · LV over WSH

▲
Model confidence82% conf
LV grades as a real model edge, not just noise.
+0.9pp
▲
Venue split66% conf
LV's venue form is 7.5pp stronger in the recent sample.
+0.4pp
▲
Head to head48% conf
LV has taken 2 of the last 3 meetings.
+0.2pp

Open price

-278

Close price

-278

Open no-vig

70.5%

Close no-vig

70.5%

Line barely moved

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in WSH at LV?: The model favors LV, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+6.5pp

best edge · LV · DraftKings

WSH

no live price

★ best

-270DraftKings

edge +6.5pp · implied 70.0%

Book	WSH	LV	Best edge
DraftKings	+220	-270★	+6.5

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

LV vs WSH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 95 high confidence

Points

A'ja WilsonLV
26.1± 8.2high
Jackie YoungLV
20.5± 7.4high
Shakira AustinWSH
19.1± 4.4high

Rebounds

Shakira AustinWSH
10.1± 3.4high
A'ja WilsonLV
9.3± 3.7high
Kiki IriafenWSH
8.6± 3.2high

Assists

Jackie YoungLV
6.5± 3.7high
Chelsea GrayLV
6.4± 1.5high
Sonia CitronWSH
4.0± 1.9high

Blocks

A'ja WilsonLV
2.1± 1.2high
Shakira AustinWSH
1.3± 1.5high
Lauren BettsWSH
1.0± 1.3high

Steals

A'ja WilsonLV
1.3± 0.9high
Chelsea GrayLV
1.3± 1.3high
Jewell LoydLV
1.1± 0.9high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Washington MysticsLas Vegas Aces

Elsewhere in the WNBA

Data via ESPN · wehoop

Washington Mystics at Las Vegas Aces

LV vs WSH.

3 sub-models, blended.

Why we like LV.

Where to bet this game.

LV vs WSH.