Washington Mystics at Las Vegas Aces
WSH
7-7
LV
11-4
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Preview · WNBA
ashington Mystics visit Las Vegas Aces Thursday at 8/13 - 10:00 PM EDT. WSH is 4-3 in their last 7. LV is rolling — 8-1 in their last 9.
The market hasn't shipped a line worth tagging key numbers on yet — check back closer to first pitch.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Team stats
WSH
Away
Stat
LV
Home
45
FG %
48
Season series
Series starts 7/22
LV@WSHupcomingWSH@LVupcomingWSH@LVtodayScouting report
WSH @ LV
Model edge vs market
Lean onlyMarket
—
Model
LV -32.0
Edge
—
Market
—
Model
On the roadmap
Edge
—
Market
—
Model
LV
Edge
—
Model spread derived from 21-day power-rank delta · not a true point-spread model. Total + ML model wires roadmap. Bet responsibly · 21+
Tale of the tape
7-7
Record
12-4
#5
Conf rank
#2
-3.8
Pt diff
+4.4
W2
Streak
W2
5-5
Last 10
8-2
49.1
Power score
81.2
#8
Power rank
#3
Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
43.0%
ensemble · WSH favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LV win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LV win)
32%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LV win)
35%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
LV vs WSH.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
110
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- A'ja WilsonLV25.8± 6.6medium
- Jackie YoungLV17.7± 7.6medium
- Sonia CitronWSH15.6± 6.8medium
Rebounds
- A'ja WilsonLV9.6± 4.4medium
- Kiki IriafenWSH8.0± 5.3low
- Shakira AustinWSH7.9± 4.1low
Assists
- Chelsea GrayLV7.3± 2.5medium
- Jackie YoungLV7.1± 2.4medium
- Sonia CitronWSH3.9± 2.9medium
Blocks
- A'ja WilsonLV2.1± 2.0medium
- Shakira AustinWSH1.2± 1.3low
- Cheyenne Parker-TyusLV0.7± 0.8medium
Steals
- A'ja WilsonLV1.5± 1.6medium
- Sonia CitronWSH1.4± 1.6medium
- Chelsea GrayLV1.3± 1.0medium
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
WSH
league avg
LV
44.9%
FG%
44.6
▶48.3%
29.4%
3PT %
33.5
▶35.6%
82.2
PPG
85.9
▶89.9
18.9
Assists / G
18.0
▶23.5
15.6
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶12.7