Atlanta Dream at Connecticut Sun
ATL
11-4
CON
2-15
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Preview · WNBA
tlanta Dream visit Connecticut Sun Thursday at 8/13 - 7:00 PM EDT. ATL arrives on a 3-game win streak (6-2 in their last 8).
The market hasn't shipped a line worth tagging key numbers on yet — check back closer to first pitch.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Team stats
ATL
Away
Stat
CON
Home
45
FG %
42
Season series
ATL leads series 1-0
CON75@ATL91ATL@CONtodayCON@ATLupcomingScouting report
ATL @ CON
Tale of the tape
11-4
Record
2-15
#1
Conf rank
#7
+7.1
Pt diff
-10.6
W3
Streak
L7
7-3
Last 10
1-9
Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
43.0%
ensemble · ATL favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CON win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CON win)
32%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CON win)
35%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
CON vs ATL.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
125
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Rhyne HowardATL18.5± 9.4medium
- Allisha GrayATL18.2± 5.8medium
- Angel ReeseATL15.7± 5.3medium
Rebounds
- Angel ReeseATL11.8± 4.2medium
- Aneesah MorrowCON10.1± 5.0medium
- Naz HillmonATL5.3± 2.3medium
Assists
- Jordin CanadaATL6.8± 3.0medium
- Leila LacanCON4.8± 2.8low
- Rhyne HowardATL3.3± 1.9medium
Blocks
- Brittney GrinerCON1.5± 1.6low
- Saniya RiversCON0.9± 1.0medium
- Rhyne HowardATL0.8± 1.1medium
Steals
- Rhyne HowardATL2.9± 2.1medium
- Jordin CanadaATL1.9± 1.8medium
- Allisha GrayATL1.6± 1.3medium
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
ATL
league avg
CON
44.7%
FG%
44.6
42.6%
34.2%
3PT %
33.5
26.0%
90.2
PPG
85.9
79.2
20.3
Assists / G
18.0
18.7
12.5
Turnovers / G
13.0
13.4