Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in ATL at CON?

The model favors ATL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

ATL

20-12

PregameThu, 7:00 PM EDTNBC Sports BO, WNBA League Pass, PeachtreeTV

CON

8-23

ATS/ATL -10.5O/U/174.5ML/ATL-520

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Why this matchup

3 signals · model + market

Recent form

7-3

ATL +2.9 vs CON -8.0 margin

ATL brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.

Rest edge

+3.0 days

CON 6 rest vs ATL 3

CON has fresher legs, a real late-game edge on the second night.

Model rank

+282.7

CON Elo vs ATL Elo

ATL owns the cleaner matchup rating, forcing CON uphill early today again.

WNBAThu, Aug 138/13 - 7:00 PM EDTSeriesATL leads series 1-0VegasATL -10.5

Preview · WNBA

tlanta Dream visit Connecticut Sun Thursday at 8/13 - 7:00 PM EDT. ATL is 4-2 in their last 6.

Vegas opened ATL as a 10.5-point favorite with the total at 174.5. CON's moneyline implies a 20% break-even, ATL the inverse.

For bettors: the ATL side carries the favorite-tax, the dog gets the points and a plus-money payout. The 174.5 total reads high-scoring vs the league average.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Updated 0s ago

Team stats

ATL

Away

Stat

CON

Home

FG %

Season series

ATL leads series 1-0

Jun 2

CON75@

ATL91

Aug 13

ATL@

CONtoday

Sep 17

CON@

ATLupcoming

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ATL -10.5

Half-pt above key 10

1.0pt· 6h

Total

174.5

High-scoring · +9.5 vs avg

Moneyline

ATL-52084%

CON+39020%

20· 6h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ATL -10.5↗SpreadBet ATL -10.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

10.5

+1.0 since open

Total

174.5

+3.0 since open

Scouting report

ATL @ CON

8/13 - 7:00 PM EDT

Rest going in

ATLStandard

2 days

last game Aug 10

CONUnknown

—

Model edge vs market

Lean only

Spread

Market

ATL -10.5

Model

On the roadmap

Edge

—

Total

Market

174.5

Model

On the roadmap

Edge

—

Moneyline

Market

ATL -520

Model

On the roadmap

Edge

—

Model spread derived from 21-day power-rank delta · not a true point-spread model. Total + ML model wires roadmap. Bet responsibly · 21+

Tale of the tape

ATLmetricCON

20-12

Record

8-23

Conf rank

+3.6

Pt diff

-7.1

Streak

7-3

Last 10

3-7

54.1

Sched ahead

57.1

Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.

Betting line

ATL -10.5·O/U 174.5·ATL -520/CON +390

DraftKings · via ESPN

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Scouting report · pre-game

CON vs ATL.

CON is 3-7 recently; ATL is 7-3.

15.6%

model · CON win prob

Recent form

CON3–7-8.0
ATL7–3+2.9

Situational

CON6d rest
ATL3d rest
+3.0d differential

CON has 3 more rest days. CON has 0 straight road games; ATL has 0.

Model angle

+3.9ppon ATL

ATL's edge is mostly recent form plus line steam. Rest advantage is the main caution flag.

▼Rest advantage-0.9pp
▲Recent form+0.8pp
▲Line steam+0.7pp

Players to watch

Allisha GrayATL
18.9points · ±6.3
Allisha Gray · 18.9 pts · last-10 19.5 vs season 18.1.
Angel ReeseATL
15.6points · ±8.4
Angel Reese · 15.6 pts · last-10 16.1 vs season 15.
Rhyne HowardATL
15.0points · ±5.9
Rhyne Howard · 15 pts · last-10 14.1 vs season 16.4.

Head-to-head · 0-4 · last 4

CON is 0-4 in the recent head-to-head sample.

2025-09-01ATL @ CON93–76
2025-09-08CON @ ATL62–87
2025-09-10ATL @ CON88–72
2026-06-02CON @ ATL75–91

Line move

open +350→+390toward ATL

The market has moved 1.8pp toward the away side.

Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

15.6%

ensemble · ATL favored

Elo Static
22.7%
P(CON win)
34%
weight
Elo Recent
23.5%
P(CON win)
32%
weight
Pace Efficiency
21.5%
P(CON win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.82 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Why we like ATL.

ATL's edge is mostly recent form plus line steam. Rest advantage is the main caution flag.

+3.9

pp edge · ATL

5.0u · large

on ATL

89.7%

±8.2pp band

5u large — +5.8pp edge, quarter Kelly capped.

Edge

+9.3pp

+5.4pp post-cal

Kelly

36.1%

5.0% sized

Decimal

1.19

+5.8pp vs price

Contributor breakdown · sums to 3.9pp · ATL over CON

▼
Rest advantage65% conf
CON has the rest edge entering this game.
-0.9pp
▲
Recent form70% conf
ATL is 3-2 over its last 5; CON is 1-4.
+0.8pp
▲
Line steam71% conf
The market moved 1.8pp toward ATL since open.
+0.7pp
▲
Head to head48% conf
ATL has taken 3 of the last 3 meetings.
+0.6pp
▼
Model confidence68% conf
ATL is a lean, so the confidence layer stays modest.
-0.5pp
▲
Venue split68% conf
ATL's venue form is 8.1pp stronger in the recent sample.
+0.4pp

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in ATL at CON?: The model favors ATL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+3.9pp

best edge · ATL · DraftKings

ATL

★ best

-520DraftKings

edge +3.9pp · implied 80.4%

CON

no live price

Book	ATL	CON	Best edge
DraftKings	-520★	+390	+3.9

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

CON vs ATL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

140

projections · 105 high confidence

Points

Allisha GrayATL
18.9± 6.3high
Angel ReeseATL
15.6± 8.4high
Rhyne HowardATL
15.0± 5.9high

Rebounds

Angel ReeseATL
11.5± 3.9high
Olivia Nelson-OdodaCON
6.6± 3.5high
Brionna JonesATL
6.1± 2.9low

Assists

Jordin CanadaATL
8.1± 2.5high
Leila LacanCON
4.4± 1.6high
Rhyne HowardATL
4.1± 2.2high

Blocks

Brittney GrinerCON
1.8± 1.0medium
Rhyne HowardATL
1.1± 1.3high
Kennedy BurkeCON
1.0± 1.1high

Steals

Rhyne HowardATL
2.0± 1.3high
Jordin CanadaATL
1.9± 1.2high
Angel ReeseATL
1.6± 1.4high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Atlanta DreamConnecticut Sun

Elsewhere in the WNBA

Data via ESPN · wehoop

Atlanta Dream at Connecticut Sun

CON vs ATL.

3 sub-models, blended.

Why we like ATL.

Where to bet this game.

CON vs ATL.