Recent form
8-2
CHC +2.5 vs STL +1.9 margin
CHC brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs
STL
STL
61-60
PregameFri, 2:20 PM EDTApple TV
CHC
CHC
71-50
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
1 signal · model + marketWrigley Field · Chicago, Illinois
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Matthew Liberatore
SP · #32
5-9
W-L
5.15
ERA
1.52
WHIP
110
K
113.2
IP
Last 3 starts
vsCOLL(5-9)5.0 IP5 ER3 K
@TOR-6.0 IP0 ER7 K
vsCHCL(5-8)3.2 IP3 ER5 K
Home starter
Clay Holmes
SP · #25
4-5
W-L
2.86
ERA
1.16
WHIP
46
K
56.2
IP
Last 3 starts
@KCL(4-5)4.0 IP4 ER1 K
vsNYYL(4-4)4.1 IP4 ER8 K
@ARIL(4-3)5.2 IP2 ER6 K
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Win prob36% / 64%
LeanHome · 14pp
ConfidenceEdge
Head to head
SeriesSeries tied 5-5
TypeRegular Season Series
Scouting report · pre-game
CHC vs STL.
CHC enters on a 3-game win streak; STL is 7-3 over its last 10.
64.2%
model · CHC win prob
Recent form
- CHC8–2+2.5
- STL7–3+1.9
Situational
- CHC2d rest
- STL2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. CHC has 5 straight road games; STL has 0.
Model angle
Weather and park add about 0.1 runs from the total environment.
- ▲Weather + park+0.1pp
Players to watch
- Kevin GausmanCHC5.3strikeouts · ±2.4
Kevin Gausman · 5.3 K · last-10 5.2 vs season 5.5.
- Shota ImanagaCHC5.1strikeouts · ±1.5
Shota Imanaga · 5.1 K · last-10 4.9 vs season 5.4.
- Kyle LeahySTL5.0strikeouts · ±2.3
Kyle Leahy · 5 K · last-10 5.3 vs season 4.6.
Head-to-head · 4-2 · last 6
CHC is 4-2 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2026-07-05STL @ CHC4–6
- 2026-07-27CHC @ STL7–3
- 2026-07-28CHC @ STL10–2
- 2026-07-29CHC @ STL2–3
- 2026-07-30CHC @ STL4–2
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
65.3%
ensemble · CHC favored
Elo Static
64.8%
P(CHC win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
67.6%
P(CHC win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
66.0%
P(CHC win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
1.14 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
92% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
CHC vs STL.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
130
projections · 114 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Kevin GausmanCHC5.3± 2.4high
- Shota ImanagaCHC5.1± 1.4high
- Kyle LeahySTL5.0± 2.3high
Hits
- Alex BregmanCHC1.2± 1.1high
- Ivan HerreraSTL1.2± 1.3high
- Jordan WalkerSTL1.2± 0.7high
Total bases
- Alex BregmanCHC2.5± 3.6high
- Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC2.3± 2.9high
- Alec BurlesonSTL2.3± 3.6high
RBIs
- Alec BurlesonSTL1.1± 2.1high
- Alex BregmanCHC1.0± 2.1high
- Seiya SuzukiCHC0.9± 0.9high
Earned runs
- Matthew LiberatoreSTL3.1± 2.2high
- Kevin GausmanCHC3.0± 2.1high
- David PetersonCHC2.7± 2.8high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
STL
league avg
CHC
.695
OPS
.719
▶.761
.316
OBP
.318
▶.340
4.37
Runs / G
4.50
▶5.24
4.07
Team ERA
4.17
4.08
1.34
WHIP
1.31
▶1.26
7.7
K / 9
8.5
7.7
The One modelEdge
Fri, Aug 14STL
Cardinals
73-65
vs64.2%CHC
CHC★
Cubs
84-61
STL 35.8%win prob64.2% CHC
CHC 1583 · STL 1501Box score→
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
