Park factor
96 total idx
Petco Park run environment
Park factor boosts run scoring, so contact quality matters more tonight here.
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Houston Astros at San Diego Padres
HOU
HOU
60-57
PregameSun, 8:20 PM EDTNBC
SD
SD
60-57
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
2 signals · model + marketPetco Park · San Diego, California
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
TBD
Probable starter not yet announced. ESPN typically posts the card 12–24 hours before first pitch.
Home starter
TBD
Probable starter not yet announced. ESPN typically posts the card 12–24 hours before first pitch.
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Win prob54% / 46%
LeanAway · 4pp
ConfidenceLean
Head to head
SeriesHOU leads series 1-0
TypeCurrent Series
Scouting report · pre-game
SD vs HOU.
SD is 6-4 recently; HOU is 8-2.
45.8%
model · SD win prob
Recent form
- SD6–4+0.4
- HOU8–2+2.5
Situational
- SD2d rest
- HOU2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. SD has 0 straight road games; HOU has 1.
Model angle
Weather and park remove about 0.3 runs from the total environment.
- ▼Weather + park-0.3pp
Players to watch
- Michael KingSD4.7strikeouts · ±1.7
Michael King · 4.7 K · last-10 4.5 vs season 5.
- Robbie RaySD4.7strikeouts · ±2.0
Robbie Ray · 4.7 K · last-10 4.6 vs season 4.7.
- Walker BuehlerSD4.2strikeouts · ±2.2
Walker Buehler · 4.2 K · last-10 4.2 vs season 4.1.
Head-to-head · 0-1 · last 1
SD is 0-1 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2026-08-07HOU @ SD6–3
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
44.8%
ensemble · HOU favored
Elo Static
47.6%
P(SD win)
44%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
47.6%
P(SD win)
11%
weight
Bullpen Park
46.2%
P(SD win)
45%
weight
Disagreement
0.70 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
95% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
2 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
SD vs HOU.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
128
projections · 109 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Peter LambertHOU5.9± 2.3medium
- Hunter BrownHOU5.5± 2.6low
- Tatsuya ImaiHOU5.2± 4.2medium
Hits
- Yordan AlvarezHOU1.3± 1.1high
- Jose AltuveHOU1.2± 1.2high
- Yainer DiazHOU1.2± 1.6high
Total bases
- Yordan AlvarezHOU2.2± 2.2high
- Christian WalkerHOU2.1± 1.4high
- Jeremy PenaHOU2.1± 2.1high
RBIs
- Yordan AlvarezHOU0.8± 0.9high
- LaMonte Wade Jr.HOU0.7± 0.7high
- Jackson MerrillSD0.7± 0.9high
Earned runs
- Ronel BlancoHOU3.8± 1.3low
- Walker BuehlerSD2.9± 2.8high
- Tatsuya ImaiHOU2.3± 2.0medium
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
HOU
league avg
SD
.741
OPS
◀
.720
.696
.323
OBP
◀
.318
.313
4.67
Runs / G
◀
4.50
4.22
4.59
Team ERA
4.17
▶4.19
1.36
WHIP
1.30
▶1.33
8.9
K / 9
◀
8.5
8.2
The One modelLean
Sun, Aug 9HOU★
Astros
78-66
vs54.2%HOU
SD
Padres
69-69
HOU 54.2%win prob45.8% SD
HOU 1547 · SD 1507Box score→
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant