Recent form
4-6
TEX -1.0 vs BAL -2.7 margin
TEX brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
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Baltimore Orioles at Texas Rangers
BAL
BAL
56-61
PregameSun, 2:35 PM EDTMLB.TV
TEX
TEX
59-58
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
1 signal · model + marketGlobe Life Field · Arlington, Texas
Line movement
200 snapshots
TEX spread
-1.5
open PK · -1.5
Total
O/U 8.5
open O/U 8.5
TEX no-vig %
55.1%
open 56.7% · -1.6
Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = TEX favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Cade Povich
SP · #37
2-1
W-L
3.91
ERA
1.34
WHIP
19
K
25.1
IP
Last 3 starts
vsLAAW(2-1)6.0 IP0 ER7 K
@MIA-3.0 IP3 ER1 K
@NYYL(1-1)4.0 IP5 ER4 K
Home starter
Kumar Rocker
SP · #80
4-8
W-L
4.08
ERA
1.33
WHIP
98
K
108.0
IP
Last 3 starts
@HOU-5.1 IP3 ER5 K
vsSEAW(4-8)6.2 IP2 ER7 K
vsCHWW(3-8)6.0 IP0 ER6 K
Vegas line
Spread-1.5
TotalO/U 8
Money+121 / -130
Model edge
Win prob38% / 62%
LeanHome · 12pp
ConfidenceEdge
Head to head
SeriesTEX leads series 2-0
TypeCurrent Series
Place a bet
Take TEX on the model side.
Our model leans this way; both DraftKings and FanDuel are open below.
Model side · moneyline
21+ in most states. Lines refreshed at the moment of fetch. We may earn a referral fee on book signups — your odds and terms are unchanged.
Scouting report · pre-game
TEX vs BAL.
TEX enters on a 4-game win streak; BAL is 4-6 over its last 10.
61.9%
model · TEX win prob
Recent form
- TEX4–6-1.0
- BAL4–6-2.7
Situational
- TEX1d restB2B
- BAL1d restB2B
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. TEX has 0 straight road games; BAL has 2.
Model angle
+6.4ppon TEX
TEX's edge is mostly model confidence plus recent form. Line steam is the main caution flag. Weather and park add about 0.1 runs from the total environment.
- ▲Weather + park+0.1pp
- ▲Model confidence+3.3pp
- ▲Recent form+1.8pp
Players to watch
- Jacob deGromTEX6.6strikeouts · ±2.2
Jacob deGrom · 6.6 K · last-10 6.6 vs season 6.5.
- Nathan EovaldiTEX6.3strikeouts · ±3.1
Nathan Eovaldi · 6.3 K · last-10 6.3 vs season 6.2.
- MacKenzie GoreTEX6.2strikeouts · ±2.0
MacKenzie Gore · 6.2 K · last-10 6.4 vs season 5.8.
Head-to-head · 2-0 · last 2
TEX is 2-0 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2026-08-07BAL @ TEX1–2
- 2026-08-08BAL @ TEX1–5
Line move
open -146→-136toward BAL
The market has moved 1.7pp toward the away side.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
61.9%
ensemble · TEX favored
Elo Static
61.7%
P(TEX win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
61.5%
P(TEX win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
62.0%
P(TEX win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.21 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
99% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
TEX vs BAL.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
126
projections · 112 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Jacob deGromTEX6.6± 2.2high
- Nathan EovaldiTEX6.3± 3.1high
- MacKenzie GoreTEX6.2± 2.0high
Hits
- Brandon NimmoTEX1.1± 1.0high
- Ezequiel DuranTEX1.0± 1.4high
- Pete AlonsoBAL0.8± 0.7high
Total bases
- Brandon NimmoTEX1.9± 2.0high
- Coby MayoBAL1.6± 2.2high
- Ezequiel DuranTEX1.6± 2.7high
RBIs
- Coby MayoBAL0.6± 1.1high
- Ezequiel DuranTEX0.6± 1.3high
- Jeremiah JacksonBAL0.5± 0.5high
Earned runs
- MacKenzie GoreTEX3.0± 2.1high
- Nathan EovaldiTEX2.8± 1.8high
- Kumar RockerTEX2.6± 2.3high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
BAL
league avg
TEX
.709
OPS
.719
▶.717
.319
OBP
.318
.317
4.43
Runs / G
◀
4.50
4.14
4.19
Team ERA
4.17
4.23
1.33
WHIP
1.30
▶1.28
8.0
K / 9
8.5
▶8.6
The One modelEdge
Sun, Aug 9BAL
Orioles
60-83
vs61.9%TEX
TEX★
Rangers
75-67
BAL 38.1%win prob61.9% TEX
TEX 1510 · BAL 1451Box score→
Team pages
Elsewhere in the MLB
- RedsNationals8/9 - 12:15 PM EDT
- AthleticsRed Sox8/9 - 1:35 PM EDT
- BravesYankees8/9 - 1:35 PM EDT
- MetsPirates8/9 - 1:35 PM EDT
- Blue JaysPhillies8/9 - 1:35 PM EDT
- AngelsMarlins8/9 - 1:40 PM EDT
- CubsRoyals8/9 - 2:10 PM EDT
- GuardiansWhite Sox8/9 - 2:10 PM EDT
- TwinsBrewers8/9 - 2:10 PM EDT
- RockiesCardinals8/9 - 2:15 PM EDT
- TigersGiants8/9 - 4:05 PM EDT
- DodgersDiamondbacks8/9 - 4:10 PM EDT
- RaysMariners8/9 - 4:10 PM EDT
- AstrosPadres8/9 - 8:20 PM EDT
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
