Recent form
7-3
CHC +1.4 vs KC -0.9 margin
CHC brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
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Chicago Cubs at Kansas City Royals
CHC
CHC
68-49
PregameSun, 2:10 PM EDTMLB.TV
KC
KC
48-69
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
1 signal · model + marketKauffman Stadium · Kansas City, Missouri
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Matthew Boyd
SP · #16
7-1
W-L
3.59
ERA
1.22
WHIP
63
K
72.2
IP
Last 3 starts
vsLADW(7-1)6.2 IP4 ER3 K
@STL-7.0 IP0 ER5 K
@PIT-7.0 IP1 ER4 K
Home starter
Randy Dobnak
SP · #62
2-0
W-L
1.16
ERA
1.19
WHIP
15
K
31.0
IP
Last 3 starts
vsMINW(2-0)5.0 IP1 ER1 K
@MINW(1-0)7.0 IP0 ER4 K
@DET-5.0 IP0 ER3 K
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Win prob69% / 31%
LeanAway · 19pp
Confidence★ Lock
Head to head
SeriesCHC lead series 1-0
TypeCurrent Series
Scouting report · pre-game
KC vs CHC.
KC is 3-7 recently; CHC is 7-3.
30.8%
model · KC win prob
Recent form
- KC3–7-0.9
- CHC7–3+1.4
Situational
- KC2d rest
- CHC2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. KC has 0 straight road games; CHC has 1.
Model angle
Weather and park add about 0.1 runs from the total environment.
- ▲Weather + park+0.1pp
Players to watch
- Kevin GausmanCHC5.3strikeouts · ±2.4
Kevin Gausman · 5.3 K · last-10 5.2 vs season 5.5.
- Noah CameronKC5.3strikeouts · ±3.4
Noah Cameron · 5.3 K · last-10 5.3 vs season 5.3.
- Shota ImanagaCHC5.2strikeouts · ±1.6
Shota Imanaga · 5.2 K · last-10 5.1 vs season 5.4.
Head-to-head · 0-1 · last 1
KC is 0-1 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2026-08-07CHC @ KC6–4
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
32.0%
ensemble · CHC favored
Elo Static
38.7%
P(KC win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
41.6%
P(KC win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
38.3%
P(KC win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
1.47 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
90% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
KC vs CHC.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
128
projections · 107 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Kevin GausmanCHC5.3± 2.4high
- Noah CameronKC5.3± 3.4high
- Shota ImanagaCHC5.2± 1.6high
Hits
- Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC1.2± 0.9high
- Alex BregmanCHC1.1± 0.6high
- Nico HoernerCHC1.1± 1.3high
Total bases
- Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC2.4± 3.0high
- Jac CaglianoneKC1.9± 1.6high
- Seiya SuzukiCHC1.8± 1.5high
RBIs
- Luke MaileKC1.0± 1.6low
- Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC0.8± 1.3high
- Tyrone TaylorCHC0.8± 1.3high
Earned runs
- Kevin GausmanCHC3.0± 2.1high
- Noah CameronKC3.0± 2.6high
- David PetersonCHC2.9± 3.0high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
CHC
league avg
KC
.754
OPS
◀
.720
.708
.339
OBP
◀
.318
.312
5.14
Runs / G
◀
4.50
4.14
4.05
Team ERA
◀
4.17
4.82
1.25
WHIP
◀
1.30
1.42
7.8
K / 9
◀
8.5
7.6
The One model★ Lock
Sun, Aug 9CHC★
Cubs
81-60
vs69.3%CHC
KC
Royals
60-77
CHC 69.3%win prob30.7% KC
CHC 1577 · KC 1473Box score→
Team pages
Elsewhere in the MLB
- RedsNationals8/9 - 12:15 PM EDT
- AthleticsRed Sox8/9 - 1:35 PM EDT
- BravesYankees8/9 - 1:35 PM EDT
- MetsPirates8/9 - 1:35 PM EDT
- Blue JaysPhillies8/9 - 1:35 PM EDT
- AngelsMarlins8/9 - 1:40 PM EDT
- GuardiansWhite Sox8/9 - 2:10 PM EDT
- TwinsBrewers8/9 - 2:10 PM EDT
- RockiesCardinals8/9 - 2:15 PM EDT
- OriolesRangers8/9 - 2:35 PM EDT
- TigersGiants8/9 - 4:05 PM EDT
- DodgersDiamondbacks8/9 - 4:10 PM EDT
- RaysMariners8/9 - 4:10 PM EDT
- AstrosPadres8/9 - 8:20 PM EDT
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
