Recent form
6-4
MIL -0.5 vs MIN -0.8 margin
MIL brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
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Minnesota Twins at Milwaukee Brewers
MIN
MIN
58-60
PregameSun, 2:10 PM EDTMLB.TV
MIL
MIL
73-44
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
1 signal · model + marketAmerican Family Field · Milwaukee, Wisconsin
Line movement
200 snapshots
MIL spread
-1.5
open PK · -1.5
Total
O/U 7.5
open O/U 7.5
MIL no-vig %
68.9%
open 68.1% · +0.8
Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = MIL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Connor Prielipp
SP · #61
3-5
W-L
4.75
ERA
1.31
WHIP
81
K
77.2
IP
Last 3 starts
@SEA-5.1 IP3 ER5 K
vsATHW(3-5)5.2 IP1 ER5 K
vsCLE-5.0 IP3 ER6 K
Home starter
Jacob Misiorowski
SP · #32
11-5
W-L
1.63
ERA
0.73
WHIP
195
K
127.0
IP
Last 3 starts
@LAAL(11-5)7.0 IP2 ER10 K
vsCOLW(11-4)5.0 IP1 ER12 K
vsNYM-4.0 IP0 ER6 K
Vegas line
Spread-1.5
TotalO/U 7
Money+228 / -247
Model edge
Win prob44% / 56%
LeanHome · 6pp
ConfidenceLean
Head to head
SeriesSeries tied 1-1
TypeCurrent Series
Place a bet
Take MIL on the model side.
Our model leans this way; both DraftKings and FanDuel are open below.
Model side · moneyline
21+ in most states. Lines refreshed at the moment of fetch. We may earn a referral fee on book signups — your odds and terms are unchanged.
Scouting report · pre-game
MIL vs MIN.
MIL is 6-4 recently; MIN is 4-6.
56.4%
model · MIL win prob
Recent form
- MIL6–4-0.5
- MIN4–6-0.8
Situational
- MIL1d restB2B
- MIN1d restB2B
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. MIL has 0 straight road games; MIN has 8.
Model angle
Weather and park add about 0.1 runs from the total environment.
- ▲Weather + park+0.1pp
Players to watch
- Jacob MisiorowskiMIL9.4strikeouts · ±2.7
Jacob Misiorowski · 9.4 K · last-10 9.5 vs season 9.3.
- Taj BradleyMIN6.7strikeouts · ±2.9
Taj Bradley · 6.7 K · last-10 6.8 vs season 6.4.
- Dustin MayMIL5.1strikeouts · ±2.6
Dustin May · 5.1 K · last-10 5.1 vs season 5.
Head-to-head · 1-1 · last 2
MIL is 1-1 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2026-08-07MIN @ MIL8–6
- 2026-08-08MIN @ MIL3–4
Line move
open -247→-258toward MIL
The market has moved 0.9pp toward the home side.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
57.6%
ensemble · MIL favored
Elo Static
55.1%
P(MIL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
58.8%
P(MIL win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
55.9%
P(MIL win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
1.58 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
90% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
MIL vs MIN.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
127
projections · 113 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Jacob MisiorowskiMIL9.4± 2.7high
- Taj BradleyMIN6.7± 2.9high
- Kyle HarrisonMIL6.2± 4.5medium
Hits
- Royce LewisMIN1.3± 1.0high
- Josh BellMIN1.2± 1.3high
- Brice TurangMIL1.1± 0.9high
Total bases
- Royce LewisMIN2.4± 1.6high
- Jake BauersMIL2.0± 1.7high
- Jackson ChourioMIL1.9± 2.1high
RBIs
- Brice TurangMIL0.9± 0.9high
- Royce LewisMIN0.7± 1.0high
- Jake BauersMIL0.6± 1.0high
Earned runs
- Zebby MatthewsMIN3.5± 2.6medium
- Dean KremerMIN3.4± 3.4low
- Connor PrielippMIN3.1± 1.7medium
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
MIN
league avg
MIL
.724
OPS
.719
▶.733
.318
OBP
.318
▶.336
4.66
Runs / G
4.50
▶4.97
4.60
Team ERA
4.17
▶3.48
1.38
WHIP
1.30
▶1.16
8.4
K / 9
8.5
▶9.8
The One modelLean
Sun, Aug 9MIN
Twins
80-66
vs56.3%MIL
MIL★
Brewers
77-58
MIN 43.7%win prob56.3% MIL
MIL 1533 · MIN 1522Box score→
Team pages
Elsewhere in the MLB
- RedsNationals8/9 - 12:15 PM EDT
- AthleticsRed Sox8/9 - 1:35 PM EDT
- BravesYankees8/9 - 1:35 PM EDT
- MetsPirates8/9 - 1:35 PM EDT
- Blue JaysPhillies8/9 - 1:35 PM EDT
- AngelsMarlins8/9 - 1:40 PM EDT
- CubsRoyals8/9 - 2:10 PM EDT
- GuardiansWhite Sox8/9 - 2:10 PM EDT
- RockiesCardinals8/9 - 2:15 PM EDT
- OriolesRangers8/9 - 2:35 PM EDT
- TigersGiants8/9 - 4:05 PM EDT
- DodgersDiamondbacks8/9 - 4:10 PM EDT
- RaysMariners8/9 - 4:10 PM EDT
- AstrosPadres8/9 - 8:20 PM EDT
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
