Recent form
5-5
PHI +1.3 vs TOR +0.1 margin
PHI brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
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Toronto Blue Jays at Philadelphia Phillies
TOR
TOR
55-62
PregameSun, 1:35 PM EDTMLB.TV
PHI
PHI
62-55
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
1 signal · model + marketCitizens Bank Park · Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Shane Bieber
SP · #57
3-2
W-L
5.11
ERA
1.68
WHIP
28
K
37.0
IP
Last 3 starts
@HOUW(3-2)5.2 IP1 ER6 K
@WSHL(2-2)0.2 IP4 ER0 K
vsTBW(2-1)7.0 IP1 ER3 K
Home starter
Jesus Luzardo
SP · #44
10-5
W-L
3.36
ERA
1.16
WHIP
164
K
136.2
IP
Last 3 starts
vsWSHW(10-5)8.0 IP0 ER7 K
@MIA-6.1 IP6 ER5 K
vsNYYL(9-5)7.0 IP1 ER9 K
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Win prob35% / 65%
LeanHome · 15pp
ConfidenceEdge
Head to head
SeriesTOR leads series 1-0
TypeCurrent Series
Scouting report · pre-game
PHI vs TOR.
PHI is 5-5 recently; TOR is 6-4.
64.7%
model · PHI win prob
Recent form
- PHI5–5+1.3
- TOR6–4+0.1
Situational
- PHI2d rest
- TOR2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. PHI has 0 straight road games; TOR has 5.
Model angle
Weather and park add about 0.1 runs from the total environment.
- ▲Weather + park+0.1pp
Players to watch
- Dylan CeaseTOR8.4strikeouts · ±2.6
Dylan Cease · 8.4 K · last-10 8.4 vs season 8.5.
- Jesus LuzardoPHI7.4strikeouts · ±3.3
Jesus Luzardo · 7.4 K · last-10 7.7 vs season 6.9.
- Cristopher SanchezPHI6.4strikeouts · ±2.9
Cristopher Sanchez · 6.4 K · last-10 6 vs season 7.
Head-to-head · 0-1 · last 1
PHI is 0-1 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2026-08-07TOR @ PHI5–4
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Player projections
PHI vs TOR.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
127
projections · 108 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Dylan CeaseTOR8.4± 2.6high
- Zack WheelerPHI7.5± 3.6medium
- Jesus LuzardoPHI7.4± 3.3high
Hits
- Luis ArraezPHI1.2± 1.2high
- Trea TurnerPHI1.2± 1.3high
- Alejandro KirkTOR1.1± 1.2high
Total bases
- Bryce HarperPHI2.0± 1.5high
- Trea TurnerPHI1.9± 2.2high
- Bryan De La CruzPHI1.8± 2.1low
RBIs
- Bryan De La CruzPHI0.7± 1.4low
- Bryce HarperPHI0.7± 0.8high
- Luis ArraezPHI0.6± 0.8high
Earned runs
- Andrew PainterPHI3.6± 2.8medium
- Jameson TaillonTOR3.5± 2.7medium
- Max ScherzerTOR3.4± 3.9low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
TOR
league avg
PHI
.680
OPS
.720
▶.708
.303
OBP
.318
▶.307
3.90
Runs / G
4.50
▶4.41
4.02
Team ERA
◀
4.17
4.20
1.32
WHIP
1.30
1.31
8.9
K / 9
8.5
▶9.9
The One modelEdge
Sun, Aug 9TOR
Blue Jays
59-91
vs64.7%PHI
PHI★
Phillies
80-69
TOR 35.3%win prob64.7% PHI
PHI 1520 · TOR 1440Box score→
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
