Park factor
94 total idx
Oracle Park run environment
Park factor boosts run scoring, so contact quality matters more tonight here.
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
Detroit Tigers at San Francisco Giants
DET
DET
56-60
PregameSun, 4:05 PM EDTESPN Unlmtd, MLB.TV
SF
SF
49-67
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
2 signals · model + marketOracle Park · San Francisco, California
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Troy Melton
SP · #52
7-1
W-L
1.58
ERA
0.91
WHIP
64
K
74.0
IP
Last 3 starts
@SEAW(7-1)7.0 IP0 ER4 K
vsBALW(6-1)7.0 IP0 ER5 K
vsKC-5.0 IP2 ER5 K
Home starter
Logan Webb
SP · #62
7-7
W-L
3.74
ERA
1.11
WHIP
101
K
125.0
IP
Last 3 starts
@TEXW(7-7)6.0 IP0 ER8 K
vsMILW(6-7)6.0 IP2 ER4 K
vsLAA-6.0 IP4 ER4 K
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Win prob49% / 51%
LeanTossup
ConfidenceTossup
Head to head
SeriesSF leads series 1-0
TypeCurrent Series
Scouting report · pre-game
SF vs DET.
SF is 4-6 recently; DET is 6-4.
50.7%
model · SF win prob
Recent form
- SF4–6+0.1
- DET6–4+4.9
Situational
- SF2d rest
- DET2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. SF has 0 straight road games; DET has 7.
Model angle
Weather and park remove about 0.5 runs from the total environment.
- ▼Weather + park-0.5pp
Players to watch
- Landen RouppSF5.1strikeouts · ±2.0
Landen Roupp · 5.1 K · last-10 4.8 vs season 5.5.
- Logan WebbSF5.0strikeouts · ±2.1
Logan Webb · 5 K · last-10 5 vs season 5.1.
- Framber ValdezDET4.4strikeouts · ±2.9
Framber Valdez · 4.4 K · last-10 4.4 vs season 4.5.
Head-to-head · 1-0 · last 1
SF is 1-0 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2026-08-07DET @ SF2–5
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
46.9%
ensemble · DET favored
Elo Static
50.0%
P(SF win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
47.4%
P(SF win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
47.1%
P(SF win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
1.30 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
91% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
SF vs DET.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
123
projections · 87 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Troy MeltonDET5.7± 2.4low
- Landen RouppSF5.1± 2.0high
- Logan WebbSF5.0± 2.0high
Hits
- Dillon DinglerDET1.3± 1.0high
- Kevin McGonigleDET1.3± 1.5high
- Max ClarkDET1.3± 1.3low
Total bases
- Dillon DinglerDET2.4± 2.4high
- Osleivis BasabeSF2.3± 3.0low
- Kevin McGonigleDET2.1± 2.3high
RBIs
- Dillon DinglerDET1.0± 1.4high
- Osleivis BasabeSF1.0± 1.9low
- Gleyber TorresDET0.9± 1.7high
Earned runs
- Carson WhisenhuntSF3.6± 2.3low
- Carson SeymourSF2.7± 2.1low
- Landen RouppSF2.7± 1.9high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
DET
league avg
SF
.731
OPS
◀
.720
.721
.320
OBP
◀
.318
.309
4.55
Runs / G
◀
4.50
4.17
3.55
Team ERA
◀
4.17
4.36
1.21
WHIP
◀
1.30
1.36
8.4
K / 9
◀
8.5
7.8
The One modelTossup
Sun, Aug 9DET
Tigers
59-75
vs50.7%SF
SF★
Giants
68-78
DET 49.3%win prob50.7% SF
SF 1467 · DET 1491Box score→
Team pages
Elsewhere in the MLB
- RedsNationals8/9 - 12:15 PM EDT
- AthleticsRed Sox8/9 - 1:35 PM EDT
- BravesYankees8/9 - 1:35 PM EDT
- MetsPirates8/9 - 1:35 PM EDT
- Blue JaysPhillies8/9 - 1:35 PM EDT
- AngelsMarlins8/9 - 1:40 PM EDT
- CubsRoyals8/9 - 2:10 PM EDT
- GuardiansWhite Sox8/9 - 2:10 PM EDT
- TwinsBrewers8/9 - 2:10 PM EDT
- RockiesCardinals8/9 - 2:15 PM EDT
- OriolesRangers8/9 - 2:35 PM EDT
- DodgersDiamondbacks8/9 - 4:10 PM EDT
- RaysMariners8/9 - 4:10 PM EDT
- AstrosPadres8/9 - 8:20 PM EDT
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
