Recent form
4-6
CLE -0.4 vs CHW -1.0 margin
CLE brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
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Cleveland Guardians at Chicago White Sox
CLE
CLE
58-59
PregameSun, 2:10 PM EDTMLB.TV
CHW
CHW
59-56
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
1 signal · model + marketRate Field · Chicago, Illinois
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Joey Cantillo
SP · #54
8-7
W-L
3.87
ERA
1.47
WHIP
129
K
118.2
IP
Last 3 starts
vsNYML(8-7)5.0 IP2 ER5 K
@CIN-4.0 IP0 ER8 K
@TBL(8-6)3.2 IP5 ER4 K
Home starter
Davis Martin
SP · #65
9-6
W-L
4.13
ERA
1.31
WHIP
107
K
122.0
IP
Last 3 starts
@BOSL(9-6)5.0 IP9 ER1 K
vsNYY-6.0 IP4 ER6 K
vsHOU-5.0 IP4 ER3 K
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Win prob48% / 52%
LeanTossup
ConfidenceTossup
Head to head
SeriesCLE leads series 1-0
TypeCurrent Series
Scouting report · pre-game
CHW vs CLE.
CHW has dropped 4 straight; CLE is 4-6 over its last 10.
51.9%
model · CHW win prob
Recent form
- CHW4–6-1.0
- CLE4–6-0.4
Situational
- CHW2d rest
- CLE2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. CHW has 0 straight road games; CLE has 1.
Model angle
No actionable edge surfaced.
Players to watch
- Gavin WilliamsCLE8.1strikeouts · ±3.0
Gavin Williams · 8.1 K · last-10 8.4 vs season 7.7.
- Sean BurkeCHW7.1strikeouts · ±2.4
Sean Burke · 7.1 K · last-10 7.7 vs season 6.3.
- Joey CantilloCLE6.1strikeouts · ±2.2
Joey Cantillo · 6.1 K · last-10 6.6 vs season 5.4.
Head-to-head · 2-3 · last 5
CHW is 2-3 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2026-07-02CHW @ CLE5–6
- 2026-07-03CHW @ CLE3–4
- 2026-07-04CHW @ CLE3–1
- 2026-07-05CHW @ CLE7–6
- 2026-08-07CLE @ CHW8–2
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
51.5%
ensemble · CHW favored
Elo Static
51.2%
P(CHW win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
50.8%
P(CHW win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
50.5%
P(CHW win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.29 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
98% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
CHW vs CLE.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
130
projections · 119 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Gavin WilliamsCLE8.1± 3.0high
- Sean BurkeCHW7.1± 2.4high
- Joey CantilloCLE6.1± 2.2high
Hits
- Angel GenaoCLE1.7± 2.8low
- Steven KwanCLE1.3± 1.1high
- Nathaniel LoweCLE1.1± 1.1high
Total bases
- Munetaka MurakamiCHW2.0± 1.8high
- Nathaniel LoweCLE1.9± 1.9high
- Chase MeidrothCHW1.8± 2.8high
RBIs
- Angel MartinezCLE0.8± 1.9high
- Nathaniel LoweCLE0.7± 1.1high
- Chase DeLauterCLE0.6± 1.0high
Earned runs
- David SandlinCHW3.8± 4.2low
- Davis MartinCHW3.1± 3.4high
- Noah SchultzCHW3.0± 1.8medium
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
CLE
league avg
CHW
.681
OPS
.720
▶.720
.312
OBP
.318
.315
3.99
Runs / G
4.50
▶4.75
3.80
Team ERA
◀
4.17
4.13
1.27
WHIP
◀
1.30
1.31
9.4
K / 9
◀
8.5
8.5
The One modelTossup
Sun, Aug 9CLE
Guardians
78-65
vs51.8%CHW
CHW★
White Sox
75-63
CLE 48.2%win prob51.8% CHW
CHW 1514 · CLE 1530Box score→
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
