Recent form
7-3
LV +9.0 vs MIN +7.9 margin
LV brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
Las Vegas Aces at Minnesota Lynx
LV
LV
22-9
PregameSat, 1:00 PM EDTCBS, Paramount+
MIN
MIN
25-7
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
2 signals · model + marketPreview · WNBA
as Vegas Aces visit Minnesota Lynx Saturday at 8/8 - 1:00 PM EDT. LV is rolling — 5-2 in their last 7. MIN is rolling — 6-1 in their last 7.
Vegas opened MIN as a 5.5-point favorite with the total at 183.5. MIN's moneyline implies a 69% break-even, LV the inverse.
For bettors: the MIN side carries the favorite-tax, the dog gets the points and a plus-money payout. The 183.5 total reads high-scoring vs the league average.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Line just movedSpread ↗ 1.0pt over 6.4h57m ago
Updated 0s ago
Team stats
LV
Away
Stat
MIN
Home
49
FG %
48
Season series
LV leads series 1-0
Jun 14MIN97@LV100
MIN97@LV100Aug 8LV@MINtoday
LV@MINtodayAug 16MIN@LVupcoming
MIN@LVupcomingModel & market
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
MIN -5.5
Half-pt above key 5
1.0pt· 6.4h
Total
183.5
High-scoring · +18.5 vs avg
Moneyline
LV+18036%MIN-21869%13· 6.4h
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 200 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
5.5
0.0 since open
Total
183.5
-3.0 since open
Scouting report
LV @ MIN
Rest going in
LVStandard
1 day
last game Aug 6
MINStandard
1 day
last game Aug 6
Model edge vs market
Mild edgeSpread
Market
MIN -5.5
Model
MIN -7.2
Edge
+1.7 pts
Total
Market
183.5
Model
On the roadmap
Edge
—
Moneyline
Market
MIN -218
Model
MIN
Edge
aligned
Model spread derived from 21-day power-rank delta · not a true point-spread model. Total + ML model wires roadmap. Bet responsibly · 21+
Tale of the tape
LVmetricMIN
22-9
Record
25-7
#3
Conf rank
#1
+5.3
Pt diff
+8.9
W2
Streak
L1
7-3
Last 10
9-1
75.8
Power score
83.0
#3
Power rank
#1
76.9
Sched ahead
64.8
Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.
Betting line
MIN -5.5·O/U 183.5·LV +180/MIN -218
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Scouting report · pre-game
MIN vs LV.
MIN is 9-1 recently; LV is 7-3.
65.6%
model · MIN win prob
Recent form
- MIN9–1+7.9
- LV7–3+9.0
Situational
- MIN2d rest
- LV2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. MIN has 0 straight road games; LV has 3.
Model angle
No actionable edge surfaced.
Players to watch
- A'ja WilsonLV26.1points · ±7.9
A'ja Wilson · 26.1 pts · last-10 26.3 vs season 25.9.
- Kayla McBrideMIN20.2points · ±8.5
Kayla McBride · 20.2 pts · last-10 21.9 vs season 17.5.
- Olivia MilesMIN20.2points · ±8.0
Olivia Miles · 20.2 pts · last-10 21.2 vs season 18.7.
Head-to-head · 3-2 · last 5
MIN is 3-2 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2025-06-18LV @ MIN62–76
- 2025-07-25LV @ MIN78–109
- 2025-08-02MIN @ LV111–58
- 2025-09-05MIN @ LV87–97
- 2026-06-13MIN @ LV97–100
Line move
open -205→-218toward MIN
The market has moved 1.3pp toward the home side.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
66.3%
ensemble · MIN favored
Elo Static
66.6%
P(MIN win)
34%
weight
Elo Recent
64.4%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Pace Efficiency
70.4%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
2.47 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
84% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
The receipts
Closing-line value.
+1.27
CLV pp
Open price
-205
Close price
-218
Open no-vig
64.5%
Close no-vig
65.7%
Market came to the model
How we read this game
- Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in LV at MIN?
- The model favors MIN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
- When is the pick logged, and can it change?
- Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
Player projections
MIN vs LV.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
125
projections · 85 high confidence
Points
- A'ja WilsonLV26.1± 7.9high
- Kayla McBrideMIN20.2± 8.5high
- Olivia MilesMIN20.2± 8.0high
Rebounds
- A'ja WilsonLV9.6± 4.0high
- Napheesa CollierMIN7.4± 2.6low
- Natasha HowardMIN6.9± 2.8high
Assists
- Chelsea GrayLV6.9± 2.3high
- Jackie YoungLV6.6± 3.4high
- Olivia MilesMIN6.1± 2.8high
Blocks
- A'ja WilsonLV1.9± 1.1high
- Dorka JuhaszMIN0.9± 0.4low
- Natasha HowardMIN0.9± 1.0high
Steals
- Kayla McBrideMIN1.8± 1.6high
- Natasha HowardMIN1.8± 1.1high
- Chelsea GrayLV1.4± 1.4high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Team pages
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