Park factor
104 total idx
Fenway Park run environment
Park factor boosts run scoring, so contact quality matters more tonight here.
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Athletics at Boston Red Sox
ATH
ATH
45-71
PregameSun, 1:35 PM EDTMLB.TV
BOS
BOS
64-51
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
2 signals · model + marketFenway Park · Boston, Massachusetts
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
J.T. Ginn
SP · #35
8-6
W-L
3.51
ERA
1.21
WHIP
105
K
115.1
IP
Last 3 starts
@CIN-6.0 IP3 ER5 K
vsWSHW(8-6)6.1 IP0 ER7 K
@CHWL(7-6)4.1 IP8 ER7 K
Home starter
Patrick Sandoval
SP · #43
1-0
W-L
3.38
ERA
1.67
WHIP
25
K
24.0
IP
Last 3 starts
vsCHWW(1-0)5.0 IP2 ER5 K
@ATH-5.0 IP2 ER7 K
vsTOR-4.2 IP0 ER3 K
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Win prob22% / 78%
LeanHome · 28pp
Confidence★ Lock
Head to head
SeriesBOS leads series 1-0
TypeCurrent Series
Scouting report · pre-game
BOS vs ATH.
BOS enters on a 9-game win streak; ATH is 1-9 over its last 10.
77.8%
model · BOS win prob
Recent form
- BOS9–1+4.1
- ATH1–9-4.2
Situational
- BOS2d rest
- ATH2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. BOS has 0 straight road games; ATH has 4.
Model angle
Weather and park add about 0.3 runs from the total environment.
- ▲Weather + park+0.3pp
Players to watch
- Ranger SuarezBOS5.8strikeouts · ±2.5
Ranger Suarez · 5.8 K · last-10 6.1 vs season 5.4.
- Sonny GrayBOS5.7strikeouts · ±2.7
Sonny Gray · 5.7 K · last-10 6.2 vs season 5.
- J.T. GinnATH5.0strikeouts · ±1.6
J.T. Ginn · 5 K · last-10 5.3 vs season 4.6.
Head-to-head · 4-1 · last 5
BOS is 4-1 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2026-07-27BOS @ ATH4–2
- 2026-07-28BOS @ ATH3–4
- 2026-07-29BOS @ ATH4–2
- 2026-07-30BOS @ ATH5–4
- 2026-08-07ATH @ BOS1–13
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
78.6%
ensemble · BOS favored
Elo Static
78.1%
P(BOS win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
78.3%
P(BOS win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
80.2%
P(BOS win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.95 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
94% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
BOS vs ATH.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
131
projections · 97 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Payton TolleBOS6.8± 3.5medium
- Gage JumpATH5.8± 3.0low
- Ranger SuarezBOS5.8± 2.5high
Hits
- Ceddanne RafaelaBOS1.5± 0.8high
- Andruw MonasterioBOS1.2± 0.8high
- Caleb DurbinBOS1.2± 1.1high
Total bases
- Ceddanne RafaelaBOS2.7± 2.4high
- Wilyer AbreuBOS2.4± 2.7high
- Andruw MonasterioBOS1.8± 1.7high
RBIs
- Wilyer AbreuBOS0.9± 1.0high
- Andruw MonasterioBOS0.8± 0.9high
- Ceddanne RafaelaBOS0.8± 0.9high
Earned runs
- Jack PerkinsATH3.1± 1.7high
- Gage JumpATH2.8± 3.4low
- Jacob LopezATH2.4± 2.5medium
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
ATH
league avg
BOS
.714
OPS
.720
▶.724
.317
OBP
.318
.320
4.30
Runs / G
4.50
▶4.50
5.47
Team ERA
4.17
▶3.48
1.50
WHIP
1.30
▶1.22
8.7
K / 9
8.5
8.7
The One model★ Lock
Sun, Aug 9ATH
Athletics
54-85
vs77.9%BOS
BOS★
Red Sox
74-65
ATH 22.1%win prob77.9% BOS
BOS 1592 · ATH 1394Box score→
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
