Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in COL at STL?

The model favors STL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Colorado Rockies vs St. Louis Cardinals: MLB Prediction, Pick & Odds — Aug 9, 2026

COL

46-71

PregameSun, 2:15 PM EDTMLB.TV

STL

58-59

ATS/STL -1.5O/U/9.5ML/STL-158

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Why this matchup

2 signals · model + market

Park factor

98 total idx

Busch Stadium run environment

Park factor boosts run scoring, so contact quality matters more tonight here.

Recent form

4-6

COL +0.3 vs STL +0.2 margin

COL brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.

Busch Stadium · St. Louis, Missouri

Line movement

200 snapshots

STL spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 9.5

open O/U 9.5

STL no-vig %

60.0%

open 60.5% · -0.6

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = STL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Pregame · scouting report

The matchup, end-to-end.

Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.

Away starter

Michael Lorenzen

SP · #24

3-10

W-L

6.94

ERA

1.85

WHIP

107.2

Last 3 starts

vsTBL(3-10)3.0 IP7 ER0 K

@SD-4.0 IP3 ER2 K

vsWSH-3.2 IP6 ER5 K

Home starter

Michael McGreevy

SP · #36

4-9

W-L

3.59

ERA

1.20

WHIP

120.1

Last 3 starts

@NYY-4.1 IP2 ER5 K

vsCHCL(4-9)1.2 IP7 ER2 K

vsARIL(4-8)6.1 IP4 ER3 K

Vegas line

Spread-1.5

TotalO/U 9.5

Money+147 / -158

Model edge

Win prob37% / 63%

LeanHome · 13pp

ConfidenceEdge

Head to head

SeriesSeries tied 1-1

TypeCurrent Series

Place a bet

Take STL on the model side.

Our model leans this way; both DraftKings and FanDuel are open below.

Model side · moneyline

-158Bet STL ML↗-158Bet STL ML↗

Other markets

-1.5Bet the run line↗-1.5Bet the run line↗

O/U 9.5Bet the total↗O/U 9.5Bet the total↗

21+ in most states. Lines refreshed at the moment of fetch. We may earn a referral fee on book signups — your odds and terms are unchanged.

Scouting report · pre-game

STL vs COL.

STL is 5-5 recently; COL is 4-6.

63.3%

model · STL win prob

Recent form

STL5–5+0.2
COL4–6+0.3

Situational

STL1d restB2B
COL1d restB2B
+0.0d differential

Rest is even. STL has 0 straight road games; COL has 2.

Model angle

+3.1ppon STL

STL's edge is mostly recent form plus travel burden. Model confidence is the main caution flag. Weather and park remove about 0.2 runs from the total environment.

▼Weather + park-0.2pp
▲Recent form+0.8pp
▼Model confidence-0.5pp

Players to watch

Kyle LeahySTL
4.9strikeouts · ±2.3
Kyle Leahy · 4.9 K · last-10 5.2 vs season 4.5.
Matthew LiberatoreSTL
4.9strikeouts · ±2.3
Matthew Liberatore · 4.9 K · last-10 4.9 vs season 4.8.
Kyle FreelandCOL
4.8strikeouts · ±2.6
Kyle Freeland · 4.8 K · last-10 5.1 vs season 4.4.

Head-to-head · 1-1 · last 2

STL is 1-1 in the recent head-to-head sample.

2026-08-07COL @ STL2–3
2026-08-08COL @ STL8–6

Line move

open -173→-168toward COL

The market has moved 0.7pp toward the away side.

Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

64.0%

ensemble · STL favored

Elo Static
63.4%
P(STL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
67.4%
P(STL win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
61.9%
P(STL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

2.32 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

85% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Why we like STL.

STL's edge is mostly recent form plus travel burden. Model confidence is the main caution flag.

+3.1

pp edge · STL

-0.33

CLV pp

1.3u · medium

on STL

63.2%

±4.7pp band

1.27u medium — +2pp edge, quarter Kelly.

Edge

+3.0pp

-0.1pp post-cal

Kelly

5.1%

1.3% sized

Decimal

1.63

+2.0pp vs price

Contributor breakdown · sums to 3.1pp · STL over COL

▲
Recent form70% conf
STL is 3-2 over its last 5; COL is 1-4.
+0.8pp
▼
Model confidence68% conf
STL is a lean, so the confidence layer stays modest.
-0.5pp
▲
Travel burden58% conf
COL is carrying the heavier road load into this matchup.
+0.5pp
▼
Head to head48% conf
COL has controlled the recent head-to-head sample.
-0.2pp

Open price

-173

Close price

-158

Open no-vig

60.5%

Close no-vig

60.2%

Line barely moved

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in COL at STL?: The model favors STL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+3.1pp

best edge · STL · DraftKings

COL

no live price

STL

★ best

-158DraftKings

edge +3.1pp · implied 60.2%

Book	COL	STL	Best edge
DraftKings	+147	-158★	+3.1

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

STL vs COL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 111 high confidence

Strikeouts

Kyle LeahySTL
4.9± 2.3high
Matthew LiberatoreSTL
4.9± 2.3high
Kyle FreelandCOL
4.8± 2.6high

Hits

Jake McCarthyCOL
1.4± 1.4high
Cole CarriggCOL
1.1± 1.2high
TJ RumfieldCOL
1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

Jake McCarthyCOL
2.4± 2.9high
Mickey MoniakCOL
2.2± 2.5high
Willi CastroCOL
2.2± 1.9high

RBIs

Jake McCarthyCOL
0.8± 1.3high
Mickey MoniakCOL
0.8± 1.3high
Hunter GoodmanCOL
0.7± 1.6high

Earned runs

Kyle FreelandCOL
3.7± 2.1high
Ryan FeltnerCOL
3.4± 2.5medium
Michael LorenzenCOL
3.1± 2.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

COL

league avg

STL

.746

OPS

◀

.719

.694

.324

OBP

◀

.318

.315

4.82

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.34

5.48

Team ERA

4.17

▶

4.14

1.51

WHIP

1.30

▶

1.34

7.1

K / 9

8.5

▶

7.7

The One modelEdge

Sun, Aug 9

COL

Rockies

52-85

vs63.3%STL

STL★

Cardinals

70-64

COL 36.7%win prob63.3% STL

STL 1492 · COL 1421Box score→

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Colorado Rockies at St. Louis Cardinals

The matchup, end-to-end.

Take STL on the model side.

STL vs COL.

3 sub-models, blended.

Why we like STL.

Where to bet this game.

STL vs COL.

Team rate stats vs league

Where to bet this game.

Why we like STL.