Recent form
8-2
ATL +2.4 vs NYY -0.6 margin
ATL brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
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Atlanta Braves at New York Yankees
ATL
ATL
70-46
PregameSun, 1:35 PM EDTMLB.TV
NYY
NYY
65-51
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
1 signal · model + marketYankee Stadium · Bronx, New York
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Grant Holmes
SP · #66
7-4
W-L
3.67
ERA
1.34
WHIP
92
K
108.0
IP
Last 3 starts
vsMIAW(7-4)6.0 IP0 ER5 K
vsWSH-4.2 IP3 ER4 K
@BAL-5.0 IP3 ER5 K
Home starter
Cam Schlittler
SP · #31
10-6
W-L
2.26
ERA
0.95
WHIP
171
K
139.2
IP
Last 3 starts
vsSTL-3.0 IP4 ER6 K
@CHW-6.1 IP1 ER8 K
@PHIW(10-6)7.1 IP0 ER12 K
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Win prob49% / 51%
LeanTossup
ConfidenceTossup
Head to head
SeriesNYY lead series 1-0
TypeCurrent Series
Scouting report · pre-game
NYY vs ATL.
NYY is 5-5 recently; ATL is 8-2.
51.4%
model · NYY win prob
Recent form
- NYY5–5-0.6
- ATL8–2+2.4
Situational
- NYY2d rest
- ATL2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. NYY has 0 straight road games; ATL has 1.
Model angle
No actionable edge surfaced.
Players to watch
- Cam SchlittlerNYY7.8strikeouts · ±2.6
Cam Schlittler · 7.8 K · last-10 8.2 vs season 7.1.
- Chris SaleATL7.1strikeouts · ±2.4
Chris Sale · 7.1 K · last-10 7.1 vs season 7.2.
- Ryan WeathersNYY5.6strikeouts · ±1.8
Ryan Weathers · 5.6 K · last-10 5.3 vs season 6.
Head-to-head · 1-0 · last 1
NYY is 1-0 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2026-08-07ATL @ NYY2–3
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
51.8%
ensemble · NYY favored
Elo Static
50.7%
P(NYY win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
52.4%
P(NYY win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
50.3%
P(NYY win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.91 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
94% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
NYY vs ATL.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
133
projections · 113 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Cam SchlittlerNYY7.8± 2.6high
- Chris SaleATL7.1± 2.4high
- Gerrit ColeNYY6.2± 2.7low
Hits
- Luis Garcia Jr.NYY1.2± 0.9high
- Matt OlsonATL1.1± 0.8high
- Mauricio DubonATL1.1± 1.2high
Total bases
- Matt OlsonATL2.8± 2.3high
- Luis Garcia Jr.NYY2.4± 2.9high
- George Lombard Jr.NYY2.0± 2.3low
RBIs
- Luis Garcia Jr.NYY0.8± 0.9high
- Dominic SmithATL0.7± 1.1high
- Matt OlsonATL0.7± 0.6high
Earned runs
- Bryce ElderATL2.9± 2.4high
- Tyler MahleATL2.6± 2.5medium
- Will WarrenNYY2.5± 2.3high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
ATL
league avg
NYY
.736
OPS
◀
.720
.721
.315
OBP
◀
.318
.310
4.91
Runs / G
◀
4.50
4.53
3.61
Team ERA
4.17
▶3.32
1.24
WHIP
1.30
▶1.18
8.7
K / 9
8.5
▶9.0
The One modelTossup
Sun, Aug 9ATL
Braves
84-57
vs51.4%NYY
NYY★
Yankees
76-63
ATL 48.6%win prob51.4% NYY
NYY 1529 · ATL 1548Box score→
Team pages
Elsewhere in the MLB
- RedsNationals8/9 - 12:15 PM EDT
- AthleticsRed Sox8/9 - 1:35 PM EDT
- MetsPirates8/9 - 1:35 PM EDT
- Blue JaysPhillies8/9 - 1:35 PM EDT
- AngelsMarlins8/9 - 1:40 PM EDT
- CubsRoyals8/9 - 2:10 PM EDT
- GuardiansWhite Sox8/9 - 2:10 PM EDT
- TwinsBrewers8/9 - 2:10 PM EDT
- RockiesCardinals8/9 - 2:15 PM EDT
- OriolesRangers8/9 - 2:35 PM EDT
- TigersGiants8/9 - 4:05 PM EDT
- DodgersDiamondbacks8/9 - 4:10 PM EDT
- RaysMariners8/9 - 4:10 PM EDT
- AstrosPadres8/9 - 8:20 PM EDT
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
