Recent form
7-3
ATL +2.8 vs WSH +1.2 margin
ATL brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
Atlanta Dream at Washington Mystics
ATL
ATL
19-11
PregameFri, 7:30 PM EDTION
WSH
WSH
17-12
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
2 signals · model + marketPreview · WNBA
tlanta Dream visit Washington Mystics Friday at 8/7 - 7:30 PM EDT. ATL is rolling — 5-1 in their last 6. WSH arrives on a 5-game win streak (5-1 in their last 6).
Vegas opened ATL as a 3.5-point favorite with the total at 170.5. WSH's moneyline implies a 41% break-even, ATL the inverse.
For bettors: the ATL side carries the favorite-tax, the dog gets the points and a plus-money payout. The 170.5 total reads high-scoring vs the league average.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Line just movedMoneyline ↗ 5 over 6.4hjust now
Updated 0s ago
Team stats
ATL
Away
Stat
WSH
Home
44
FG %
44
Season series
Series tied 1-1
Jun 6WSH77@ATL109
WSH77@ATL109Jul 2ATL76@WSH81
ATL76@WSH81Aug 7ATL@WSHtoday
ATL@WSHtodayModel & market
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
ATL -3.5
Between — and 5
Total
170.5
High-scoring · +5.5 vs avg
Moneyline
ATL-17564%WSH+14541%5· 6.4h
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 177 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
3.5
0.0 since open
Total
170.5
0.0 since open
Scouting report
ATL @ WSH
StorylineWSH on a 5-game roll.
Rest going in
ATLStandard
1 day
last game Aug 5
WSHStandard
1 day
last game Aug 5
Model edge vs market
Strong edgeSpread
Market
ATL -3.5
Model
ATL -0.2
Edge
-3.3 pts
Total
Market
170.5
Model
On the roadmap
Edge
—
Moneyline
Market
ATL -175
Model
ATL
Edge
aligned
Model spread derived from 21-day power-rank delta · not a true point-spread model. Total + ML model wires roadmap. Bet responsibly · 21+
Tale of the tape
ATLmetricWSH
19-11
Record
17-12
#1
Conf rank
#4
+3.6
Pt diff
-1.5
W1
Streak
W5
7-3
Last 10
7-3
75.1
Power score
74.9
#4
Power rank
#5
Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.
Betting line
ATL -3.5·O/U 170.5·ATL -175/WSH +145
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Scouting report · pre-game
WSH vs ATL.
WSH enters on a 5-game win streak; ATL is 7-3 over its last 10.
36.6%
model · WSH win prob
Recent form
- WSH7–3+1.2
- ATL7–3+2.8
Situational
- WSH2d rest
- ATL2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. WSH has 0 straight road games; ATL has 0.
Model angle
No actionable edge surfaced.
Players to watch
- Allisha GrayATL18.9points · ±5.8
Allisha Gray · 18.9 pts · last-10 19.6 vs season 17.9.
- Shakira AustinWSH18.6points · ±5.9
Shakira Austin · 18.6 pts · last-10 20.4 vs season 15.9.
- Angel ReeseATL16.2points · ±7.7
Angel Reese · 16.2 pts · last-10 16.9 vs season 15.1.
Head-to-head · 1-4 · last 5
WSH is 1-4 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2025-06-15ATL @ WSH89–56
- 2025-06-20WSH @ ATL91–92
- 2025-08-03WSH @ ATL83–99
- 2026-06-06WSH @ ATL77–109
- 2026-07-02ATL @ WSH76–81
Line move
open +130→+145toward ATL
The market has moved 2.7pp toward the away side.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
34.2%
ensemble · ATL favored
Elo Static
49.0%
P(WSH win)
34%
weight
Elo Recent
46.5%
P(WSH win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
44.3%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
1.92 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
87% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
The receipts
Closing-line value.
-2.62
CLV pp · steam
Open price
+130
Close price
+145
Open no-vig
41.7%
Close no-vig
39.1%
Market faded the model hard
How we read this game
- Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in ATL at WSH?
- The model favors WSH, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
- When is the pick logged, and can it change?
- Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
Player projections
WSH vs ATL.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
130
projections · 100 high confidence
Points
- Allisha GrayATL18.9± 5.8high
- Shakira AustinWSH18.6± 5.9high
- Angel ReeseATL16.2± 7.7high
Rebounds
- Angel ReeseATL11.0± 3.5high
- Shakira AustinWSH9.9± 3.6high
- Kiki IriafenWSH8.7± 3.8high
Assists
- Jordin CanadaATL8.1± 2.5high
- Rhyne HowardATL4.0± 1.9high
- Sonia CitronWSH3.8± 2.0high
Blocks
- Shakira AustinWSH1.2± 1.0high
- Rhyne HowardATL0.9± 1.3high
- Lauren BettsWSH0.9± 1.1high
Steals
- Rhyne HowardATL2.3± 1.4high
- Jordin CanadaATL2.0± 1.2high
- Angel ReeseATL1.7± 1.4high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Team pages
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