Atlanta Dream at Washington Mystics
ATL
11-4
WSH
7-7
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Preview · WNBA
tlanta Dream visit Washington Mystics Friday at 8/7 - 7:30 PM EDT. ATL arrives on a 3-game win streak (6-2 in their last 8). WSH is 4-3 in their last 7.
The market hasn't shipped a line worth tagging key numbers on yet — check back closer to first pitch.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Team stats
ATL
Away
Stat
WSH
Home
45
FG %
45
Season series
ATL leads series 1-0
WSH77@ATL109ATL@WSHupcomingATL@WSHtodayScouting report
ATL @ WSH
Model edge vs market
Lean onlyMarket
—
Model
ATL -28.9
Edge
—
Market
—
Model
On the roadmap
Edge
—
Market
—
Model
ATL
Edge
—
Model spread derived from 21-day power-rank delta · not a true point-spread model. Total + ML model wires roadmap. Bet responsibly · 21+
Tale of the tape
11-4
Record
7-7
#1
Conf rank
#5
+7.1
Pt diff
-3.8
W3
Streak
W2
7-3
Last 10
5-5
78.0
Power score
49.1
#4
Power rank
#8
51.8
Sched ahead
92.5
Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
42.8%
ensemble · ATL favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
32%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
35%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
WSH vs ATL.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
115
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Rhyne HowardATL18.5± 9.4medium
- Allisha GrayATL18.2± 5.8medium
- Angel ReeseATL15.7± 5.3medium
Rebounds
- Angel ReeseATL11.8± 4.2medium
- Kiki IriafenWSH8.0± 5.3low
- Shakira AustinWSH7.9± 4.1low
Assists
- Jordin CanadaATL6.8± 3.0medium
- Sonia CitronWSH3.9± 2.9medium
- Georgia AmooreWSH3.7± 2.8medium
Blocks
- Shakira AustinWSH1.2± 1.3low
- Rhyne HowardATL0.8± 1.1medium
- Angel ReeseATL0.7± 0.8medium
Steals
- Rhyne HowardATL2.9± 2.1medium
- Jordin CanadaATL1.9± 1.8medium
- Allisha GrayATL1.6± 1.3medium
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
ATL
league avg
WSH
44.7%
FG%
44.6
44.9%
34.2%
3PT %
33.5
29.4%
90.2
PPG
85.9
82.2
20.3
Assists / G
18.0
18.9
12.5
Turnovers / G
13.0
15.6