Recent form
8-2
SD +1.7 vs ARI -0.1 margin
SD brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
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San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks
SD
SD
59-55
PregameThu, 9:40 PM EDTMLB.TV
ARI
ARI
60-54
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
1 signal · model + marketChase Field · Phoenix, Arizona
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Walker Buehler
SP · #10
6-5
W-L
5.18
ERA
1.45
WHIP
92
K
104.1
IP
Last 3 starts
vsSF-4.1 IP3 ER1 K
@MIA-5.1 IP2 ER7 K
@ATLW(6-5)5.2 IP2 ER3 K
Home starter
Kohl Drake
SP · #58
0-0
W-L
4.85
ERA
1.46
WHIP
12
K
13.0
IP
Last 3 starts
@CLE-4.0 IP2 ER6 K
@WSH-4.0 IP4 ER1 K
vsATH-5.0 IP1 ER5 K
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Win prob46% / 54%
LeanHome · 4pp
ConfidenceTossup
Head to head
SeriesSeries tied 1-1
TypeCurrent Series
Scouting report · pre-game
ARI vs SD.
ARI is 5-5 recently; SD is 8-2.
53.6%
model · ARI win prob
Recent form
- ARI5–5-0.1
- SD8–2+1.7
Situational
- ARI2d rest
- SD2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. ARI has 0 straight road games; SD has 2.
Model angle
No actionable edge surfaced.
Players to watch
- Michael KingSD4.7strikeouts · ±1.7
Michael King · 4.7 K · last-10 4.5 vs season 5.
- Walker BuehlerSD4.3strikeouts · ±2.2
Walker Buehler · 4.3 K · last-10 4.3 vs season 4.2.
- Merrill KellyARI3.9strikeouts · ±1.8
Merrill Kelly · 3.9 K · last-10 3.9 vs season 3.8.
Head-to-head · 3-3 · last 6
ARI is 3-3 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2026-07-07ARI @ SD1–4
- 2026-07-08ARI @ SD4–10
- 2026-07-09ARI @ SD3–1
- 2026-08-03SD @ ARI1–5
- 2026-08-04SD @ ARI9–4
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
53.9%
ensemble · ARI favored
Elo Static
52.3%
P(ARI win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
52.7%
P(ARI win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
53.0%
P(ARI win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.29 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
98% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
ARI vs SD.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
130
projections · 112 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Casey MizeSD5.1± 2.4medium
- Michael KingSD4.7± 1.6high
- Walker BuehlerSD4.3± 2.2high
Hits
- James McCannARI1.6± 1.1high
- Jackson MerrillSD1.4± 1.1high
- Geraldo PerdomoARI1.2± 1.2high
Total bases
- James McCannARI2.6± 2.4high
- Jackson MerrillSD2.2± 1.9high
- Geraldo PerdomoARI1.8± 2.1high
RBIs
- James McCannARI1.2± 1.3high
- Manny MachadoSD0.8± 1.4high
- Tyler LocklearARI0.7± 1.4low
Earned runs
- Walker BuehlerSD3.0± 2.8high
- Merrill KellyARI2.9± 2.0high
- Mitch BrattARI2.4± 2.3low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
SD
league avg
ARI
.696
OPS
.720
▶.706
.312
OBP
.318
.314
4.23
Runs / G
4.50
▶4.54
4.15
Team ERA
◀
4.18
4.20
1.32
WHIP
1.30
▶1.30
8.3
K / 9
◀
8.5
6.9
The One modelTossup
Thu, Aug 6SD
Padres
68-67
vs53.6%ARI
ARI★
Diamondbacks
64-70
SD 46.4%win prob53.6% ARI
ARI 1503 · SD 1511Box score→
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
