Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in COL at SF?

The model favors SF, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 11, 2026

FINAL+2SF

COL

39-58

40-55

Oracle Park · San Francisco, California

35,190 attended

Line movement

59 snapshots

SF spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

SF no-vig %

57.2%

open 57.2%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = SF favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

60.3%

ensemble · SF favored

Elo Static
60.3%
P(SF win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
62.3%
P(SF win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
58.6%
P(SF win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.51 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

90% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-149

Close price

-149

Open no-vig

57.2%

Close no-vig

57.2%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in COL at SF?: The model favors SF, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Player projections

SF vs COL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

118

projections · 89 high confidence

Strikeouts

Landen RouppSF
5.1± 2.0high
Logan WebbSF
5.0± 2.0high
Kyle FreelandCOL
4.8± 2.8high

Hits

Cole CarriggCOL
1.2± 1.3high
Jung Hoo LeeSF
1.2± 0.9high
Kyle KarrosCOL
1.1± 0.8high

Total bases

Jung Hoo LeeSF
2.4± 2.8high
Mickey MoniakCOL
2.2± 2.6high
Osleivis BasabeSF
2.2± 3.6low

RBIs

Osleivis BasabeSF
1.2± 2.2low
Hunter GoodmanCOL
0.9± 1.6high
Mickey MoniakCOL
0.8± 1.1high

Earned runs

Kyle FreelandCOL
3.9± 1.9high
Carson WhisenhuntSF
3.5± 2.6low
Ryan FeltnerCOL
3.3± 2.7medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

COL

league avg

.746

OPS

◀

.720

.724

.324

OBP

◀

.318

.310

4.84

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.20

5.51

Team ERA

4.18

▶

4.36

1.52

WHIP

1.30

▶

1.35

7.1

K / 9

8.5

▶

7.8

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SF wins

COL 2 · SF 4 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked SF +10pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
COL	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	2
SF	0	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	4

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. McCarthyCF	.301	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
M. MoniakLF	.283	4	0	2	0	0	0	2
H. GoodmanC	.251	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
T. Rumfield1B	.298	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
K. Karros3B	.266	4	1	1	1	1	0	0
T. JohnstonRF	.304	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
E. Julien2B	.222	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
E. TovarSS	.202	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
B. SullivanC	.221	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
C. CarriggCF	.281	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
W. Castro2B	.260	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		33	2	6	1	1	3	6

Player

.301

.283

.251

.298

.266

.304

.222

.202

.221

.281

.260

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. FreelandSP	6.0	6	4	4	0	9	92
Z. AgnosRP	2.0	1	0	0	1	0	25
Team	8.0	7	4	4	1	9	117

Player

K. FreelandSP

6.0

Z. AgnosRP

2.0

Team

8.0

117

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
H. RamosLF	.271	4	1	1	0	0	0	0
L. Arraez2B	.332	4	1	2	0	0	0	1
C. SchmittLF	.280	4	1	1	3	1	0	1
R. Devers1B	.251	3	0	0	0	0	1	2
W. AdamesSS	.224	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. EldridgeDH	.270	3	1	1	0	0	0	2
J. LeeRF	.306	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. RodríguezC	.238	3	0	1	1	0	0	0
D. GilbertCF	.237	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
Team		31	4	7	4	1	1	9

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. MahleSP	7.0	5	1	1	3	4	104
J. BrubakerRP	2.0	1	1	1	0	2	25
Team	9.0	6	2	2	3	6	129

Team

COL

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

SF vs COL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

SF vs COL.

3 sub-models, blended.