Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TOR at GS?

The model favors TOR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+11GS

TOR

10-20

8192

21-9

WNBATue, Aug 4FinalSeriesGS wins series 3-0VegasGS -11.5

TOR · top performer

Nyara Sabally

F · #8

17.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

GS · top performer

Kayla Thornton

F · #5

16.3Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowTOR ↔ GS

Biggest swing: 10pp · 3rd Quarter · 1:22

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
M. CondeF · #10	30	17	6-12	5-10	—	-11	6	4
N. SaballyF · #8	32	21	8-12	3-6	2-4	-14	6	3
L. JuskaiteF · #2	25	11	3-7	1-3	4-4	+5	3	1
M. MabreyG · #3	35	12	4-11	0-4	4-4	-9	5	6
J. AllemandG · #22	31	7	3-5	1-2	—	+3	1	8
Bench
I. HarrisonF · #21	8	3	1-3	1-1	—	+3	0	0
T. KeyF · #7	0	0	—	—	—	0	0	0
A. MorrowF · #24	16	8	3-6	1-2	1-1	-17	5	0
K. RiceG · #1	23	2	0-3	0-1	2-2	-15	1	0
Team		81	28-59	12-29	13-15		27	22
DNP: T. Fagbenle, B. Sykes, K. Nurse

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. ThorntonF · #5	28	20	6-10	4-7	4-4	+10	2	1
G. WilliamsF · #1	20	10	4-9	0-2	2-3	0	7	0
C. ZandalasiniF · #24	19	6	2-6	2-4	—	+8	2	3
K. StokesC · #41	27	7	3-5	1-2	—	+5	7	1
V. BurtonG · #22	33	12	2-9	1-6	7-9	+15	8	7
Bench
L. AmihereF · #3	4	0	—	—	—	+1	3	0
J. SalaunF · #13	21	21	8-12	4-6	1-1	+6	1	0
T. HayesG · #15	24	12	4-11	0-3	4-6	+14	4	4
K. CharlesG · #6	17	2	1-4	0-2	—	0	3	3
K. ChenG · #2	7	2	1-2	0-1	—	-4	1	2
Team		92	31-68	12-33	18-23		38	21
DNP: N. Fingall, J. Jocyte

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

TOR

Away

Stat

Home

28-59

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

31-68

FG %

12-29

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

12-33

13-15

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

18-23

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

GS wins series 3-0

Jul 8

GS83@

TOR75

Aug 3

TOR79@

GS96

Aug 5

TOR81@

GS92today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

GS -11.5

Between 10 and —

Total

169.5

Standard · +4.5 vs avg

1.0pt· 6.4h

Moneyline

TOR+47018%

GS-65087%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet GS -11.5↗SpreadBet GS -11.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

11.5

0.0 since open

Total

169.5

-1.0 since open

How it ended

GS beat TOR 92-81. K. Thornton led with 20 PTS, 2 REB, 1 AST.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

GS vs TOR

Starters vs bench

production by unit

TORstarters 84% of pts

Starters(5)

68 PTS · 21 REB · 22 AST

GS 59

Bench(4)

13 PTS · 6 REB · 0 AST

GS 4

GSstarters 60% of pts

Starters(5)

55 PTS · 26 REB · 12 AST

GS 50

Bench(5)

37 PTS · 12 REB · 9 AST

GS 29

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

GS2nd Quarter · 1:59 · 42-38

+9pp→ 62% WP

Cecilia Zandalasini · makes 24-foot running jump shot (Tiffany Hayes assists)

GS2nd Quarter · 49.4 · 42-41

+7pp→ 71% WP

Janelle Salaun · makes 24-foot three point jumper (Tiffany Hayes assists)

TOR3rd Quarter · 1:22 · 67-69

+10pp→ 28% WP

Kiki Rice · makes free throw 1 of 2

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
TOR	24	18	26	13	81
GS	25	16	31	20	92

Period scoring

TOR won 1 · GS won 3

Sabally 8

Thornton 6

Conde 9

Burton 4

Sabally 8

Thornton 12

Sabally 5

Salaun 5

TOR

Shooting comparison

TOR

47%

28-59

46%

31-68

41%

12-29

3PT

36%

12-33

87%

13-15

78%

18-23

Play-by-play · 382 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
TOR 81·GS 92
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
TOR 81·GS 92
Q4·7.8
shot clock turnover
TOR 81·GS 92
Q4·21.0
Veronica Burton offensive rebound
TOR 81·GS 92
Q4·22.6
Veronica Burton misses free throw 2 of 2
TOR 81·GS 92
Q4·22.6
Teonni Key enters the game for Nyara Sabally
·
TOR 81·GS 92
Q4·22.6
Veronica Burton makes free throw 1 of 2
TOR 81·GS 92
Q4·22.6
Nyara Sabally personal take foul
TOR 81·GS 91
Q4·30.4
Golden State Valkyries Reset Timeout
TOR 81·GS 91
Q4·31.0
Veronica Burton defensive rebound
TOR 81·GS 91
Q4·34.4
Marina Mabrey misses 23-foot three point jumper
TOR 81·GS 91
Q4·38.0
Tempo Reset Timeout
TOR 81·GS 91
Q4·38.0
Kayla Thornton makes free throw 2 of 2
TOR 81·GS 91
Q4·38.0
Kayla Thornton makes free throw 1 of 2
TOR 81·GS 90
Q4·38.0
Marina Mabrey personal take foul
TOR 81·GS 89
+2pp
Q4·51.5
Julie Allemand kicked ball violation
TOR 81·GS 89
−1pp
Q4·53.5
Laura Juskaite makes running layup
TOR 81·GS 89
Q4·58.4
Laura Juskaite defensive rebound
TOR 79·GS 89
Q4·1:00
Veronica Burton misses 32-foot three point jumper
TOR 79·GS 89
Q4·1:24
Julie Allemand makes driving layup (Maria Conde assists)
·
TOR 79·GS 89
Q4·1:32
Tempo Full timeout
TOR 77·GS 89
Q4·1:34
Gabby Williams makes driving layup (Tiffany Hayes assists)
·
TOR 77·GS 89
Q4·1:50
Nyara Sabally lost ball turnover (Veronica Burton steals)
·
TOR 77·GS 87
Q4·1:50
Nyara Sabally vs. Veronica Burton (Kayla Thornton gains possession)
· ·
TOR 77·GS 87
+3pp
Q4·2:02
Veronica Burton personal foul
TOR 77·GS 87
−2pp
Q4·2:14
Tiffany Hayes personal foul
TOR 77·GS 87
Q4·2:19
Marina Mabrey defensive rebound
TOR 77·GS 87
Q4·2:23
Veronica Burton misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshot
TOR 77·GS 87
Q4·2:41
Kiah Stokes defensive rebound
TOR 77·GS 87
Q4·2:44
Marina Mabrey misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshot
TOR 77·GS 87
+0.7pp

Betting line

GS -11.5·O/U 169.5·TOR +470/GS -650

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · WNBA

olden State Valkyries held off Toronto Tempo, 92–81.

TOR +11.5 cashed (GS won by 11). Total cleared the 169.5 OVER by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Four factors · this game

Who won the possession battle

Dean Oliver’s four factors from this game’s box score — shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounding, free throws.

TOR

eFG%

shooting

57.6%

54.4%

TOV%

ball control

18.6%

13.3%

OREB%

offensive glass

17.9%

40.5%

FT rate

free throws / FGA

22.0%

26.5%

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Aneesah MorrowTOR · F
DRB%.37599+
Kiah StokesGS · C
AST/TO3.899+
Veronica BurtonGS · G
AST/TO3.797
Marina MabreyTOR · G
USG%.29496
Nyara SaballyTOR · F
ORB%.10991

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

81.9%

ensemble · GS favored

Elo Static
83.4%
P(GS win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
82.3%
P(GS win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
78.4%
P(GS win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

2.14 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

86% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.91

CLV pp

Open price

+650

Close price

+600

Open no-vig

12.8%

Close no-vig

13.7%

Market came to the model · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TOR at GS?: The model favors TOR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+9.2pp

best edge · GS · DraftKings

TOR

no live price

★ best

-395DraftKings

edge +9.2pp · implied 75.2%

Book	TOR	GS	Best edge
DraftKings	+280	-395★	+9.2

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

GS vs TOR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

115

projections · 90 high confidence

Points

Marina MabreyTOR
20.2± 8.9high
Brittney SykesTOR
18.1± 10.6medium
Janelle SalaunGS
14.6± 6.3high

Rebounds

Aneesah MorrowTOR
7.6± 4.7high
Kiah StokesGS
5.7± 2.6high
Isabelle HarrisonTOR
5.7± 3.8medium

Assists

Julie AllemandTOR
6.0± 2.2high
Veronica BurtonGS
5.7± 2.2high
Marina MabreyTOR
3.8± 1.7high

Blocks

Kiah StokesGS
1.9± 1.4high
Laeticia AmihereGS
0.6± 1.0high
Nyara SaballyTOR
0.6± 0.7high

Steals

Gabby WilliamsGS
1.6± 1.1high
Veronica BurtonGS
1.5± 0.7high
Julie AllemandTOR
1.5± 1.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Data via ESPN · wehoop