Phoenix Mercury at Chicago Sky
PHX
4-12
CHI
4-10
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Preview · WNBA
hoenix Mercury visit Chicago Sky Monday at 8/3 - 9:00 PM EDT.
The market hasn't shipped a line worth tagging key numbers on yet — check back closer to first pitch.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Team stats
PHX
Away
Stat
CHI
Home
42
FG %
42
Season series
PHX leads series 1-0
CHI83@PHX91CHI@PHXupcomingPHX@CHItodayScouting report
PHX @ CHI
Tale of the tape
5-12
Record
4-11
#7
Conf rank
#6
-3.4
Pt diff
-5.0
W1
Streak
L5
3-7
Last 10
1-9
Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
42.8%
ensemble · PHX favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHI win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHI win)
32%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHI win)
35%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
CHI vs PHX.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
115
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Kahleah CopperPHX19.3± 10.1medium
- Rickea JacksonCHI16.0± 11.0low
- Skylar DigginsCHI15.8± 6.2medium
Rebounds
- Natasha MackPHX8.3± 3.5medium
- Kamilla CardosoCHI7.5± 4.3medium
- Alyssa ThomasPHX6.6± 3.5medium
Assists
- Alyssa ThomasPHX8.5± 2.7medium
- Skylar DigginsCHI4.5± 3.2medium
- Natasha CloudCHI4.3± 3.0low
Blocks
- Kamilla CardosoCHI1.7± 2.2medium
- Elizabeth WilliamsCHI1.3± 1.3low
- Natasha MackPHX1.3± 1.2medium
Steals
- Monique Akoa MakaniPHX1.6± 1.0low
- Alyssa ThomasPHX1.5± 1.4medium
- Aicha CoulibalyCHI1.1± 1.2low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
PHX
league avg
CHI
42.3%
FG%
44.6
42.3%
32.3%
3PT %
33.4
31.5%
81.8
PPG
85.7
▶83.1
18.9
Assists / G
18.0
▶19.4
13.4
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶12.5