Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in PHX at CHI?

The model favors PHX, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+5PHX

PHX

12-19

106101

CHI

11-19

WNBAMon, Aug 3FinalSeriesPHX wins series 2-1VegasPHX -1.5

PHX · top performer

Alyssa Thomas

F · #25

21.1Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

CHI · top performer

Kamilla Cardoso

C · #10

17.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowPHX ↔ CHI

Biggest swing: 26pp · 4th Quarter · 1:30

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
D. BonnerF · #24	31	14	3-8	2-6	6-9	+11	8	4
A. ThomasF · #25	38	19	5-9	—	9-9	+3	15	12
N. MackF · #4	18	9	3-5	—	3-4	-10	3	1
N. BrochantF · #1	19	2	1-5	0-2	—	-4	2	2
K. CopperG · #2	34	31	10-19	4-8	7-12	+11	4	1
Bench
V. AyayiF · #11	22	11	4-6	2-4	1-1	+11	2	1
S. WhitcombG · #33	15	0	0-1	0-1	—	-9	1	1
K. PlumG · #0	21	20	6-10	3-5	5-5	+12	1	4
L. HeldG · #10	3	0	—	—	—	0	0	0
Team		106	32-63	11-26	31-40		36	26
DNP: M. Suarez, K. Linskens

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. CardosoC · #10	28	16	8-15	—	—	-16	13	5
C. VanderslootG · #22	27	16	6-13	4-6	—	+9	5	10
N. CloudG · #9	31	13	4-8	1-5	4-4	-14	5	7
A. CoulibalyG · #35	11	6	3-6	0-1	—	+1	1	0
S. TaylorG · #12	17	14	5-10	3-5	1-1	+4	2	3
Bench
E. WilliamsC · #1	15	5	2-3	—	1-3	+10	6	2
R. BanhamG · #24	2	0	—	—	—	-5	1	0
D. CarringtonG · #7	20	16	4-10	1-4	7-12	-7	1	0
J. SheldonG · #0	23	6	1-5	0-3	4-4	-1	1	1
G. JaquezG · #11	26	9	4-6	1-2	0-1	-6	1	1
Team		101	37-76	10-26	17-25		36	29
DNP: A. Stevens, S. Diggins

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

PHX

Away

Stat

CHI

Home

32-63

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

37-76

FG %

11-26

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

10-26

31-40

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

17-25

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

PHX wins series 2-1

May 16

CHI83@

PHX91

Jul 8

CHI77@

PHX66

Aug 4

PHX106@

CHI101today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

PHX -1.5

Between — and 5

Total

179.5

High-scoring · +14.5 vs avg

1.0pt· 6.1h

Moneyline

PHX-13057%

CHI+11048%

7· 6.1h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet PHX -1.5↗SpreadBet PHX -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

179.5

+3.0 since open

How it ended

PHX beat CHI 106-101. A. Thomas stuffed the line with 19 PTS, 15 REB, and 12 AST. PHX outscored the other side 29-20 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

CHI vs PHX

Starters vs bench

production by unit

PHXstarters 71% of pts

Starters(5)

75 PTS · 32 REB · 20 AST

GS 65

Bench(4)

31 PTS · 4 REB · 6 AST

GS 25

CHIstarters 64% of pts

Starters(5)

65 PTS · 26 REB · 25 AST

GS 63

Bench(5)

36 PTS · 10 REB · 4 AST

GS 18

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

CHI2nd Quarter · 3:36 · 45-37

+17pp→ 32% WP

DiJonai Carrington · enters the game for Rachel Banham

PHX4th Quarter · 1:30 · 99-99

+26pp→ 76% WP

DiJonai Carrington · shooting foul

PHX4th Quarter · 32.7 · 103-101

+25pp→ 79% WP

Courtney Vandersloot · bad pass turnover (DeWanna Bonner steals)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
PHX	26	29	23	28	106
CHI	27	20	30	24	101

Period scoring

PHX won 2 · CHI won 2

Thomas 6

Cardoso 6

Ayayi 8

Taylor 6

Copper 12

Vandersloot 6

Thomas 11

Vandersloot 9

PHX

CHI

Shooting comparison

PHX

CHI

51%

32-63

49%

37-76

42%

11-26

3PT

38%

10-26

78%

31-40

68%

17-25

Play-by-play · 424 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
PHX 106·CHI 101
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
PHX 106·CHI 101
Q4·2.5
Mercury offensive team rebound
PHX 106·CHI 101
−0.6pp
Q4·3.2
Kahleah Copper misses free throw 2 of 2
PHX 106·CHI 101
+0.6pp
Q4·3.2
Kahleah Copper makes free throw 1 of 2
PHX 106·CHI 101
Q4·3.2
Gabriela Jaquez personal foul
PHX 105·CHI 101
−0.6pp
Q4·3.2
Gabriela Jaquez bad pass turnover (Kahleah Copper steals)
·
PHX 105·CHI 101
−2pp
Q4·4.8
Sky Reset Timeout
PHX 105·CHI 101
Q4·4.8
DeWanna Bonner makes free throw 2 of 2
PHX 105·CHI 101
+1pp
Q4·4.8
DeWanna Bonner makes free throw 1 of 2
PHX 104·CHI 101
Q4·4.8
Gabriela Jaquez personal foulBIG MOMENT
PHX 103·CHI 101
−5pp
Q4·5.7
DeWanna Bonner defensive rebound
PHX 103·CHI 101
−3pp
Q4·7.0
DeWanna Bonner blocks Courtney Vandersloot's driving layupBIG MOMENT
·
PHX 103·CHI 101
−12pp
Q4·10.1
Sky Full timeout
PHX 103·CHI 101
−0.6pp
Q4·11.0
Gabriela Jaquez defensive rebound
PHX 103·CHI 101
+2pp
Q4·12.1
Kahleah Copper misses 18-foot pullup jump shot
PHX 103·CHI 101
+0.7pp
Q4·32.7
Courtney Vandersloot bad pass turnover (DeWanna Bonner steals)BIG MOMENT
·
PHX 103·CHI 101
−25pp
Q4·43.3
Sky Full timeoutBIG MOMENT
PHX 103·CHI 101
−15pp
Q4·43.3
Kahleah Copper personal foulBIG MOMENT
PHX 103·CHI 101
+12pp
Q4·53.2
Kelsey Plum makes 23-foot three point step back jumpshotBIG MOMENT
PHX 103·CHI 101
−9pp
Q4·1:13
Kamilla Cardoso makes two point shotBIG MOMENT
PHX 100·CHI 101
+9pp
Q4·1:15
Kamilla Cardoso offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
PHX 100·CHI 99
+10pp
Q4·1:17
Gabriela Jaquez misses driving floating jump shotBIG MOMENT
PHX 100·CHI 99
−10pp
Q4·1:30
Kahleah Copper makes free throw 2 of 2
PHX 100·CHI 99
−4pp
Q4·1:30
Mercury offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
PHX 99·CHI 99
+12pp
Q4·1:30
Kahleah Copper misses free throw 1 of 2BIG MOMENT
PHX 99·CHI 99
+6pp
Q4·1:30
DiJonai Carrington shooting foulBIG MOMENT
PHX 99·CHI 99
−26pp
Q4·1:41
Kahleah Copper defensive rebound
PHX 99·CHI 99
−2pp
Q4·1:43
DeWanna Bonner blocks Kamilla Cardoso 's 2-foot two point shotBIG MOMENT
·
PHX 99·CHI 99
+13pp
Q4·1:44
Kamilla Cardoso offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
PHX 99·CHI 99
+7pp

Betting line

PHX -1.5·O/U 179.5·PHX -130/CHI +110

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · WNBA

hoenix Mercury went into Chicago Sky and beat them, 106–101.

PHX -1.5 cashed (won by 5). Total cleared the 179.5 OVER by 27.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Four factors · this game

Who won the possession battle

Dean Oliver’s four factors from this game’s box score — shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounding, free throws.

PHX

CHI

eFG%

shooting

59.5%

55.3%

TOV%

ball control

13.0%

8.4%

OREB%

offensive glass

18.2%

23.1%

FT rate

free throws / FGA

49.2%

22.4%

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 13 players in cohort

Natasha MackPHX · F
TS%.70899+
Kahleah CopperPHX · G
USG%.30599
Kelsey PlumPHX · G
TS%.68699
Alyssa ThomasPHX · F
AST/TO2.389
Kamilla CardosoCHI · C
ORB%.10789

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

34.8%

ensemble · PHX favored

Elo Static
46.4%
P(CHI win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
49.8%
P(CHI win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
48.1%
P(CHI win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

1.39 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

91% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+3.04

CLV pp · steam

Open price

+102

Close price

-112

Open no-vig

47.4%

Close no-vig

50.4%

Market steamed in our direction · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in PHX at CHI?: The model favors PHX, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+10.9pp

best edge · PHX · DraftKings

PHX

★ best

-145DraftKings

edge +10.9pp · implied 55.9%

CHI

no live price

Book	PHX	CHI	Best edge
DraftKings	-145★	+114	+10.9

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

CHI vs PHX.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

120

projections · 85 high confidence

Points

Kelsey PlumPHX
22.8± 12.8medium
Kahleah CopperPHX
20.4± 8.3high
Sydney TaylorCHI
17.5± 6.0high

Rebounds

Kamilla CardosoCHI
8.5± 3.7high
Alyssa ThomasPHX
7.8± 2.9high
Azura StevensCHI
7.2± 2.9high

Assists

Alyssa ThomasPHX
8.4± 4.1high
Kelsey PlumPHX
6.3± 3.1medium
Natasha CloudCHI
5.4± 1.8high

Blocks

Kamilla CardosoCHI
1.4± 1.1high
Rickea JacksonCHI
1.2± 1.6low
Natasha MackPHX
1.1± 0.9high

Steals

Courtney VanderslootCHI
1.4± 1.4low
Azura StevensCHI
1.3± 1.1high
Alyssa ThomasPHX
1.3± 1.4high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Phoenix MercuryChicago Sky

Elsewhere in the WNBA

Data via ESPN · wehoop