Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in ATH at LAA?

The model favors LAA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Athletics vs Los Angeles Angels: Final Score & Box Score — Jun 28, 2026

FINAL+3LAA

ATH

40-44

LAA

36-49

Angel Stadium · Anaheim, California

32,557 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

LAA spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 9.5

open O/U 9.5

LAA no-vig %

47.8%

open 47.8%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = LAA favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Logged before first pitch · graded in public

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

53.0%

ensemble · LAA favored

Elo Static
51.8%
P(LAA win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
52.0%
P(LAA win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
51.9%
P(LAA win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.08 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+100

Close price

+100

Open no-vig

47.8%

Close no-vig

47.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in ATH at LAA?: The model favors LAA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+34.2pp

best edge · ATH · DraftKings

ATH

★ best

+630DraftKings

edge +34.2pp · implied 12.9%

LAA

no live price

Book	ATH	LAA	Best edge
DraftKings	+630★	-1260	+34.2

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

LAA vs ATH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 96 high confidence

Strikeouts

Reid DetmersLAA
6.4± 2.0high
Gage JumpATH
5.7± 3.2low
Jose SorianoLAA
5.2± 2.6high

Hits

Tommy WhiteATH
1.1± 2.0low
Mike TroutLAA
1.1± 1.2high
Jeff McNeilATH
1.0± 0.9high

Total bases

Jonah HeimATH
1.7± 2.1high
Vaughn GrissomLAA
1.6± 2.1high
Jo AdellLAA
1.5± 1.8high

RBIs

Vaughn GrissomLAA
0.8± 0.9high
Jo AdellLAA
0.6± 0.9high
Jorge SolerLAA
0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

Jeffrey SpringsATH
4.0± 1.6high
Grayson RodriguezLAA
3.9± 3.0low
Jack PerkinsATH
3.1± 1.7high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

ATH

league avg

LAA

.724

OPS

◀

.720

.697

.321

OBP

◀

.318

.314

4.39

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.21

5.37

Team ERA

4.18

▶

4.54

1.49

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.37

8.6

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.1

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

LAA wins

ATH 1 · LAA 4 (by 3)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked LAA +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
ATH	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	1
LAA	0	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	4

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
H. BolteCF	.299	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
J. Meneses1B	.100	2	0	0	1	0	1	0
S. LangeliersC	.268	3	0	1	0	0	1	2
J. HeimC	.241	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. ThomasRF	.203	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
L. ButlerRF	.204	4	0	2	0	0	0	1
M. Muncy3B	.232	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. McNeil2B	.234	4	1	1	0	0	0	0
A. WilliamsSS	.283	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
N. Kurtz1B	.279	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. CortesRF	.275	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		32	1	6	1	0	3	9

Player

.299

.100

.268

.241

.203

.204

.232

.234

.283

.279

.275

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. CivaleSP	5.0	6	4	3	1	2	90
E. AlvaradoRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	10
J. SuarezRP	2.0	0	0	0	0	2	21
Team	8.0	6	4	3	1	5	121

Player

A. CivaleSP

5.0

E. AlvaradoRP

1.0

J. SuarezRP

2.0

Team

8.0

121

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. NetoSS	.222	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. Guzman3B	.269	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
N. Schanuel1B	.266	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. AdellRF	.248	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
V. Grissom2B	.237	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
W. MecklerLF	.283	2	1	1	0	0	1	0
O. Peraza2B	.255	3	1	0	0	0	0	0
J. LoweLF	.204	2	1	1	4	1	0	0
T. HeinemanC	.333	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. SiriCF	.268	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		30	4	6	4	1	1	5

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. AldegheriSP	5.0	5	1	1	1	4	81
J. FerminRP	2.0	0	0	0	0	1	26
R. ZeferjahnRP	0.2	0	0	0	2	2	19
S. Natera Jr.RP	1.1	1	0	0	0	2	24
Team	9.0	6	1	1	3	9	150

Team

ATH

LAA

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

LAA vs ATH.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

Closing-line value.

LAA vs ATH.

3 sub-models, blended.