Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in HOU at DET?

The model favors HOU, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Houston Astros vs Detroit Tigers: Final Score & Box Score — Jun 28, 2026

FINAL+2HOU

HOU

42-44

DET

35-49

Comerica Park · Detroit, Michigan

33,655 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

DET spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

DET no-vig %

45.9%

open 45.8% · +0.1

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = DET favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Logged before first pitch · graded in public

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

30.8%

ensemble · HOU favored

Elo Static
38.5%
P(DET win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
37.1%
P(DET win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
40.0%
P(DET win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.18 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-0.12

CLV pp

Open price

-131

Close price

-131

Open no-vig

54.2%

Close no-vig

54.1%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in HOU at DET?: The model favors HOU, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+18.3pp

best edge · DET · DraftKings

HOU

no live price

DET

★ best

+1240DraftKings

edge +18.3pp · implied 12.3%

Book	HOU	DET	Best edge
DraftKings	-114	+1240★	+18.3

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

DET vs HOU.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 93 high confidence

Strikeouts

Peter LambertHOU
5.9± 2.3medium
Troy MeltonDET
5.6± 3.1low
Hunter BrownHOU
5.5± 2.8low

Hits

Max ClarkDET
2.0± 1.4low
Jeremy PenaHOU
1.8± 0.9high
Eduardo ValenciaDET
1.3± 1.8low

Total bases

Max ClarkDET
3.7± 3.1low
Jeremy PenaHOU
3.3± 2.0high
Eduardo ValenciaDET
2.6± 4.3low

RBIs

Eduardo ValenciaDET
1.0± 2.2low
Max ClarkDET
1.0± 1.4low
Hao-Yu LeeDET
0.8± 1.1high

Earned runs

Ronel BlancoHOU
4.0± 1.4low
Framber ValdezDET
2.6± 2.0high
Tatsuya ImaiHOU
2.3± 2.0medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

HOU

league avg

DET

.739

OPS

◀

.719

.727

.321

OBP

.318

4.67

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.51

4.65

Team ERA

4.18

▶

3.59

1.38

WHIP

1.30

▶

1.21

8.9

K / 9

◀

8.5

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

HOU wins

HOU 7 · DET 5 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked HOU +12pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	R
HOU	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	4	7
DET	0	2	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	2	5

Final play

“End of the 10th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. PenaSS	.295	5	1	1	0	0	0	4
Y. AlvarezDH	.311	3	1	0	0	0	2	1
I. Paredes3B	.256	5	2	3	2	1	0	0
C. Walker1B	.243	4	1	1	3	1	1	1
J. LoperfidoLF	.221	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
Y. DiazC	.244	5	0	0	0	0	0	2
T. TrammellCF	.264	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. MeyersCF	.212	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
R. Delgado2B	.280	4	1	1	2	1	0	1
C. SmithRF	.218	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. MatthewsCF	.193	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		38	7	7	7	3	5	13

Player

.295

.311

.256

.243

.221

.244

.264

.212

.280

.218

.193

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
H. BrownSP	6.0	5	3	2	2	4	103
B. AbreuRP	0.2	1	0	0	1	0	15
S. OkertRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	3
B. KingRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	8
J. HaderRP	1.0	0	0	0	3	2	29
E. De Los SantosRP	1.0	2	2	1	1	1	25
Team	10.0	9	5	3	7	7	183

Player

H. BrownSP

6.0

103

0.2

0.1

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

10.0

183

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. McGonigleSS	.281	2	1	0	0	0	3	1
C. Keith3B	.248	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
R. GreeneLF	.285	5	1	0	0	0	0	2
D. DinglerC	.262	5	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. CarpenterRF	.234	3	1	2	0	0	0	1
Z. McKinstry2B	.191	5	1	2	2	1	0	0
H. Lee2B	.252	4	0	0	0	0	1	1
J. OutmanCF	.185	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
M. VierlingCF	.203	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
K. JansenRP	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. JonesDH	.141	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. WaguespackRP	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
S. Torkelson1B	.213	2	1	2	2	1	0	0
B. MalgeriRF	.333	0	0	0	0	0	2	0
Team		37	5	9	4	2	7	7

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. FlahertySP	5.0	2	0	0	3	9	94
T. HoltonRP	1.2	1	2	0	0	0	21
K. FinneganRP	1.1	2	1	1	1	3	27
K. JansenRP	1.1	2	4	3	1	1	28
J. WaguespackRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	5
Team	10.0	7	7	4	5	13	175

Team

HOU

DET

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

DET vs HOU.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

DET vs HOU.

3 sub-models, blended.