Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in KC at CHW?

The model favors CHW, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Kansas City Royals vs Chicago White Sox: Final Score & Box Score — Jun 28, 2026

FINAL+1KC

35-50

CHW

43-39

Rate Field · Chicago, Illinois

27,301 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

CHW spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

CHW no-vig %

56.3%

open 55.1% · +1.2

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CHW favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Logged before first pitch · graded in public

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

59.4%

ensemble · CHW favored

Elo Static
58.6%
P(CHW win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
60.1%
P(CHW win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
58.6%
P(CHW win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.70 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.19

CLV pp

Open price

-136

Close price

-137

Open no-vig

55.1%

Close no-vig

55.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in KC at CHW?: The model favors CHW, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+43.8pp

best edge · CHW · DraftKings

no live price

CHW

★ best

+517DraftKings

edge +43.8pp · implied 15.2%

Book	KC	CHW	Best edge
DraftKings	-920	+517★	+43.8

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

CHW vs KC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 108 high confidence

Strikeouts

Sean BurkeCHW
7.3± 2.0high
Noah CameronKC
5.1± 3.3high
Michael WachaKC
4.7± 2.0high

Hits

Munetaka MurakamiCHW
1.1± 0.8high
Braden MontgomeryCHW
0.9± 1.0high
Chase MeidrothCHW
0.9± 1.2high

Total bases

Munetaka MurakamiCHW
2.3± 2.7high
John RaveKC
2.0± 3.3low
Salvador PerezKC
1.9± 1.8high

RBIs

Luke MaileKC
1.0± 1.9low
Munetaka MurakamiCHW
0.8± 1.9high
Andrew BenintendiCHW
0.6± 0.7high

Earned runs

Noah SchultzCHW
3.4± 2.6low
Noah CameronKC
3.0± 2.7high
Seth LugoKC
2.9± 2.3high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

league avg

CHW

.713

OPS

.720

▶

.722

.314

OBP

.318

.316

4.16

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.75

4.84

Team ERA

4.18

▶

4.03

1.43

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.29

7.6

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.7

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

KC wins

KC 5 · CHW 4 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked CHW +9pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
KC	1	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	5
CHW	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Team pages

Kansas City RoyalsChicago White Sox

Elsewhere in the MLB

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. ThomasCF	.216	5	1	2	1	0	0	1
B. Witt Jr.SS	.288	3	1	0	1	0	1	2
C. JensenC	.251	5	0	3	2	0	0	1
S. MarteRF	.266	5	1	2	0	0	0	1
S. PerezDH	.203	5	0	2	0	0	0	2
M. Massey2B	.264	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
I. CollinsLF	.230	3	1	1	1	0	0	0
T. TolbertSS	.219	3	1	0	0	0	0	0
K. MisnerCF	.281	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. Rojas3B	.267	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		37	5	11	5	0	2	8

Player

.216

.288

.251

.266

.203

.264

.230

.219

.281

.267

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. AvilaSP	4.0	6	4	4	3	4	86
S. CruzRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	11
B. WayRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	21
L. ErcegRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	18
M. StrahmRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	9
A. LangeRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	10
Team	9.0	7	4	4	5	6	155

Player

4.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

155

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. AntonacciLF	.292	4	2	1	0	0	1	1
M. Vargas3B	.252	2	2	2	2	1	2	0
K. TeelC	.235	4	0	1	2	0	0	2
A. BenintendiDH	.238	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
C. MontgomerySS	.221	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
C. Meidroth2B	.276	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
B. MontgomeryRF	.246	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
T. PetersCF	.284	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. GonzalezSS	.219	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
Team		32	4	7	4	1	5	6

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. KaySP	3.2	7	5	3	1	2	73
T. RichardsRP	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	16
S. DominguezRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	18
B. HudsonRP	1.0	2	0	0	1	1	15
J. HicksRP	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	13
C. MurphyRP	0.2	1	0	0	0	0	7
Team	9.0	11	5	3	2	8	142

Team

CHW

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

CHW vs KC.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

Closing-line value.

CHW vs KC.

3 sub-models, blended.