NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1PHI

CAR

52-22-7

PHI

42-27-12

NHLMon, Apr 13FinalSeriesCAR wins series 3-1VegasPHI -162

Recap · NHL

hiladelphia Flyers held off Carolina Hurricanes, 3–2.

CAR +1.5 cashed (PHI won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CAR · top performer

Nikolaj Ehlers

LW · #27

2Points

—

SOG

PHI · top performer

Matvei Michkov

RW · #39

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final/SO

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. BlakeRW · #53	0	1	0	3	0	1	0	20:26
S. Brind'AmourC · #76	0	0	-1	0	2	0	0	14:25
W. CarrierLW · #28	0	0	0	2	3	1	0	11:21
N. DeslauriersLW · #44	0	0	0	1	11	0	0	10:23
N. EhlersLW · #27	1	1	1	6	0	0	2	16:25
T. HallLW · #71	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	18:43
M. JankowskiLW · #77	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	13:16
J. KotkaniemiC · #82	0	0	1	1	2	1	0	15:21
J. MartinookLW · #48	0	0	-1	1	1	1	0	14:05
B. NadeauLW · #29	1	0	1	3	2	0	0	16:16
E. RobinsonLW · #50	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	15:01
L. StankovenC · #22	0	1	0	3	0	0	0	20:19

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. ChatfieldD · #5	0	0	-1	1	0	1	0	23:11
C. LegaultD · #62	0	0	1	0	0	2	0	14:22
K. MillerD · #19	0	0	-1	1	2	2	0	27:44
A. NikishinD · #21	0	0	0	0	4	3	0	23:38
M. ReillyD · #6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	12:13
S. WalkerD · #26	0	1	1	1	0	1	2	24:13

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. BussiG · #32	23	2	21	.913	64:51

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. BarkeyC · #52	0	1	1	3	1	0	0	15:00
N. CatesLW · #27	0	1	1	3	1	0	0	15:22
S. CouturierC · #14	0	0	-1	1	3	1	0	12:13
C. DvorakC · #22	0	0	0	0	0	2	2	17:32
T. FoersterRW · #71	0	1	0	0	3	0	0	18:36
L. GlendeningC · #41	0	0	-1	0	1	1	0	11:00
G. HathawayRW · #19	0	0	-1	0	4	1	0	10:28
T. KonecnyRW · #11	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	19:35
P. MartoneRW · #94	0	1	0	0	3	0	0	17:16
M. MichkovRW · #39	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	15:33
O. TippettRW · #74	0	0	0	4	3	1	0	18:50
T. ZegrasC · #46	1	0	0	4	2	1	0	21:32

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. AndraeD · #36	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	11:37
J. DrysdaleD · #9	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	25:45
R. RistolainenD · #55	0	0	-1	0	2	3	0	23:14
T. SanheimD · #6	0	0	-1	1	1	6	0	24:18
N. SeelerD · #24	0	0	0	1	2	3	0	12:50
C. YorkD · #8	0	0	1	0	1	3	0	23:54

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. VladarG · #80	26	2	24	.923	65:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Playoff series

May 3

PHI0@

CAR3

May 4

PHI2@

CAR3

May 8

CAR4@

PHI1

May 9

CAR3@

PHI2

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

PHI -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

CAR+13642%

PHI-16262%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet PHI -1.5↗SpreadBet PHI -1.5↗

Line movement · 44 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

CAR

N. Ehlers

Top skater

1 G · 1 A · 6 SOG

B. Bussi

Goaltender

21 SV · 2 GA · .913

PHI

M. Michkov

Top skater

1 G · 4 SOG

D. Vladar

Goaltender

24 SV · 2 GA · .923

How it ended

PHI beat CAR 3-2. M. Michkov led the way — 1 G · 4 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	OT	SO	T
CAR	2	0	0	0	0	2
PHI	0	2	0	0	1	3

Period scoring

CAR won 1 · PHI won 2

CAR

PHI

Play-by-play · 329 plays

period

event

player

SO·0:00
Game End
CAR 0·PHI 1
SO·0:00
End of OT
CAR 0·PHI 1
SO·0:00
End of Shootout
CAR 0·PHI 1
SO·0:00
Alexander Nikishin Snap Shot saved by Dan Vladar
·
CAR 0·PHI 1
SO·0:00
Tyson Foerster Goal Snap Shot
CAR 0·PHI 1
SO·0:00
K'Andre Miller Backhand Wide Right
·
CAR 0·PHI 1
SO·0:00
Travis Konecny Snap Shot saved by Brandon Bussi
·
CAR 0·PHI 1
SO·0:00
Bradly Nadeau Snap Shot saved by Dan Vladar
·
CAR 0·PHI 1
SO·0:00
Matvei Michkov Wrist Shot saved by Brandon Bussi
·
CAR 0·PHI 1
SO·0:00
Jackson Blake Backhand saved by Dan Vladar
·
CAR 0·PHI 1
SO·0:00
Trevor Zegras Backhand saved by Brandon Bussi
·
CAR 0·PHI 1
SO·0:00
Start of Shootout
CAR 0·PHI 1
OT·5:00
End of OT
CAR 2·PHI 2
OT·4:54
Bradly Nadeau Slap Shot saved by Dan Vladar
·
CAR 2·PHI 2
OT·4:30
Travis Konecny hit Logan Stankoven
·
CAR 2·PHI 2
OT·4:18
K'Andre Miller Wrist Shot saved by Dan Vladar
·
CAR 2·PHI 2
OT·3:28
K'Andre Miller Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
CAR 2·PHI 2
OT·2:43
Matvei Michkov Backhand saved by Brandon Bussi
·
CAR 2·PHI 2
OT·2:37
Takeaway by Logan Stankoven
CAR 2·PHI 2
OT·2:03
Christian Dvorak faceoff won against Logan Stankoven
·
CAR 2·PHI 2
OT·2:03
Goalie Stopped
CAR 2·PHI 2
OT·2:00
Nikolaj Ehlers Wrist Shot saved by Dan Vladar
·
CAR 2·PHI 2
OT·1:24
Takeaway by Jackson Blake
CAR 2·PHI 2
OT·1:12
Jackson Blake Wrist Shot Hit Left Post
·
CAR 2·PHI 2
OT·0:43
Logan Stankoven faceoff won against Sean Couturier
·
CAR 2·PHI 2
OT·0:43
Off-side
CAR 2·PHI 2
OT·0:39
Trevor Zegras Snap Shot Wide Left
·
CAR 2·PHI 2
OT·0:00
Christian Dvorak faceoff won against Mark Jankowski
·
CAR 2·PHI 2
OT·0:00
Start of Overtime
CAR 2·PHI 2
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
CAR 2·PHI 2

Team stats

CAR

Away

Stat

PHI

Home

Shots

100.0

PCT

50.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Betting line

PHI -1.5·O/U 5.5·CAR +136/PHI -162

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 26 skaters with EDGE

Nikolaj EhlersCAR · LW
CORSI%6699+
Jackson BlakeCAR · RW
CORSI%6499
Taylor HallCAR · LW
CORSI%6398
Jamie DrysdalePHI · D
SKATE MPH23.098
Denver BarkeyPHI · C
xGF%6397

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Jackson Blake · CAR20:420.9467.6%61.3%20:42 TOI · 0.94 iXG · 67.6% CF · 61.3% xGF
Matvei Michkov · PHI15:300.7574.2%85.9%15:30 TOI · 0.75 iXG · 74.2% CF · 85.9% xGF
Trevor Zegras · PHI23:360.6834.1%51.8%23:36 TOI · 0.68 iXG · 34.1% CF · 51.8% xGF
Owen Tippett · PHI19:120.6441.5%60.7%19:12 TOI · 0.64 iXG · 41.5% CF · 60.7% xGF
#848420316:180.5647.1%23.1%16:18 TOI · 0.56 iXG · 47.1% CF · 23.1% xGF
Noah Cates · PHI15:240.5157.7%69.9%15:24 TOI · 0.51 iXG · 57.7% CF · 69.9% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Brandon Bussi · CAR21–2.913+2.6321–2 · .913 SV% · +2.63 GSAx
Dan Vladar · PHI24–2.923+0.9224–2 · .923 SV% · +0.92 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

36.9%

ensemble · CAR favored

Elo Static
48.6%
P(PHI win)
68%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
48.6%
P(PHI win)
16%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
48.6%
P(PHI win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+136

Close price

+136

Open no-vig

40.7%

Close no-vig

40.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss