Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CAR at PHI?

The model favors CAR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1PHI

CAR

52-22-7

PHI

42-27-12

NHLMon, Apr 13FinalSeriesCAR wins series 3-1VegasPHI -162

CAR · top performer

Nikolaj Ehlers

LW · #27

2Points

—

SOG

PHI · top performer

Matvei Michkov

RW · #39

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final/SO

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. BlakeRW · #53	0	1	0	3	0	1	0	20:26
S. Brind'AmourC · #76	0	0	-1	0	2	0	0	14:25
W. CarrierLW · #28	0	0	0	2	3	1	0	11:21
N. DeslauriersLW · #44	0	0	0	1	11	0	0	10:23
N. EhlersLW · #27	1	1	1	6	0	0	2	16:25
T. HallLW · #71	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	18:43
M. JankowskiLW · #77	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	13:16
J. KotkaniemiC · #82	0	0	1	1	2	1	0	15:21
J. MartinookLW · #48	0	0	-1	1	1	1	0	14:05
B. NadeauLW · #29	1	0	1	3	2	0	0	16:16
E. RobinsonLW · #50	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	15:01
L. StankovenC · #22	0	1	0	3	0	0	0	20:19

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. ChatfieldD · #5	0	0	-1	1	0	1	0	23:11
C. LegaultD · #62	0	0	1	0	0	2	0	14:22
K. MillerD · #19	0	0	-1	1	2	2	0	27:44
A. NikishinD · #21	0	0	0	0	4	3	0	23:38
M. ReillyD · #6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	12:13
S. WalkerD · #26	0	1	1	1	0	1	2	24:13

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. BussiG · #32	23	2	21	.913	64:51

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. BarkeyC · #52	0	1	1	3	1	0	0	15:00
N. CatesLW · #27	0	1	1	3	1	0	0	15:22
S. CouturierC · #14	0	0	-1	1	3	1	0	12:13
C. DvorakC · #22	0	0	0	0	0	2	2	17:32
T. FoersterRW · #71	0	1	0	0	3	0	0	18:36
L. GlendeningC · #41	0	0	-1	0	1	1	0	11:00
G. HathawayRW · #19	0	0	-1	0	4	1	0	10:28
T. KonecnyRW · #11	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	19:35
P. MartoneRW · #94	0	1	0	0	3	0	0	17:16
M. MichkovRW · #39	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	15:33
O. TippettRW · #74	0	0	0	4	3	1	0	18:50
T. ZegrasC · #46	1	0	0	4	2	1	0	21:32

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. AndraeD · #36	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	11:37
J. DrysdaleD · #9	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	25:45
R. RistolainenD · #55	0	0	-1	0	2	3	0	23:14
T. SanheimD · #6	0	0	-1	1	1	6	0	24:18
N. SeelerD · #24	0	0	0	1	2	3	0	12:50
C. YorkD · #8	0	0	1	0	1	3	0	23:54

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. VladarG · #80	26	2	24	.923	65:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

CAR

Away

Stat

PHI

Home

Shots

100.0

PCT

50.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Playoff series

May 3

PHI0@

CAR3

May 4

PHI2@

CAR3

May 8

CAR4@

PHI1

May 9

CAR3@

PHI2

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

PHI -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

CAR+13642%

PHI-16262%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet PHI -1.5↗SpreadBet PHI -1.5↗

Line movement · 74 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

PHI beat CAR 3-2. M. Michkov led the way — 1 G · 4 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	OT	SO	T
CAR	2	0	0	0	0	2
PHI	0	2	0	0	1	3

Period scoring

CAR won 1 · PHI won 2

CAR

PHI

Play-by-play · 329 plays

period

event

player

SO·0:00
Game End
CAR 0·PHI 1
SO·0:00
End of OT
CAR 0·PHI 1
SO·0:00
End of Shootout
CAR 0·PHI 1
SO·0:00
Alexander Nikishin Snap Shot saved by Dan Vladar
·
CAR 0·PHI 1
SO·0:00
Tyson Foerster Goal Snap Shot
CAR 0·PHI 1
SO·0:00
K'Andre Miller Backhand Wide Right
·
CAR 0·PHI 1
SO·0:00
Travis Konecny Snap Shot saved by Brandon Bussi
·
CAR 0·PHI 1
SO·0:00
Bradly Nadeau Snap Shot saved by Dan Vladar
·
CAR 0·PHI 1
SO·0:00
Matvei Michkov Wrist Shot saved by Brandon Bussi
·
CAR 0·PHI 1
SO·0:00
Jackson Blake Backhand saved by Dan Vladar
·
CAR 0·PHI 1
SO·0:00
Trevor Zegras Backhand saved by Brandon Bussi
·
CAR 0·PHI 1
SO·0:00
Start of Shootout
CAR 0·PHI 1
OT·5:00
End of OT
CAR 2·PHI 2
OT·4:54
Bradly Nadeau Slap Shot saved by Dan Vladar
·
CAR 2·PHI 2
OT·4:30
Travis Konecny hit Logan Stankoven
·
CAR 2·PHI 2
OT·4:18
K'Andre Miller Wrist Shot saved by Dan Vladar
·
CAR 2·PHI 2
OT·3:28
K'Andre Miller Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
CAR 2·PHI 2
OT·2:43
Matvei Michkov Backhand saved by Brandon Bussi
·
CAR 2·PHI 2
OT·2:37
Takeaway by Logan Stankoven
CAR 2·PHI 2
OT·2:03
Christian Dvorak faceoff won against Logan Stankoven
·
CAR 2·PHI 2
OT·2:03
Goalie Stopped
CAR 2·PHI 2
OT·2:00
Nikolaj Ehlers Wrist Shot saved by Dan Vladar
·
CAR 2·PHI 2
OT·1:24
Takeaway by Jackson Blake
CAR 2·PHI 2
OT·1:12
Jackson Blake Wrist Shot Hit Left Post
·
CAR 2·PHI 2
OT·0:43
Logan Stankoven faceoff won against Sean Couturier
·
CAR 2·PHI 2
OT·0:43
Off-side
CAR 2·PHI 2
OT·0:39
Trevor Zegras Snap Shot Wide Left
·
CAR 2·PHI 2
OT·0:00
Christian Dvorak faceoff won against Mark Jankowski
·
CAR 2·PHI 2
OT·0:00
Start of Overtime
CAR 2·PHI 2
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
CAR 2·PHI 2

Betting line

PHI -1.5·O/U 5.5·CAR +136/PHI -162

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

hiladelphia Flyers held off Carolina Hurricanes, 3–2.

CAR +1.5 cashed (PHI won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Jackson Blake · CAR20:420.9467.6%61.3%20:42 TOI · 0.94 iXG · 67.6% CF · 61.3% xGF
Matvei Michkov · PHI15:300.7574.2%85.9%15:30 TOI · 0.75 iXG · 74.2% CF · 85.9% xGF
Trevor Zegras · PHI23:360.6834.1%51.8%23:36 TOI · 0.68 iXG · 34.1% CF · 51.8% xGF
Owen Tippett · PHI19:120.6441.5%60.7%19:12 TOI · 0.64 iXG · 41.5% CF · 60.7% xGF
#848420316:180.5647.1%23.1%16:18 TOI · 0.56 iXG · 47.1% CF · 23.1% xGF
Noah Cates · PHI15:240.5157.7%69.9%15:24 TOI · 0.51 iXG · 57.7% CF · 69.9% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Brandon Bussi · CAR21–2.913+2.6321–2 · .913 SV% · +2.63 GSAx
Dan Vladar · PHI24–2.923+0.9224–2 · .923 SV% · +0.92 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

48.6%

ensemble · CAR favored

Elo Static
48.6%
P(PHI win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
48.6%
P(PHI win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
48.6%
P(PHI win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+136

Close price

+136

Open no-vig

40.7%

Close no-vig

40.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CAR at PHI?: The model favors CAR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Carolina HurricanesPhiladelphia Flyers

Elsewhere in the NHL