Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in DET at TB?

The model favors TB, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1TB

DET

41-30-10

50-25-6

NHLMon, Apr 13FinalSeriesTB wins series 3-1VegasTB -198

DET · top performer

Alex DeBrincat

RW · #93

1Points

—

SOG

TB · top performer

Nikita Kucherov

RW · #86

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. Brandsegg-NygardRW · #28	0	0	1	0	4	0	0	11:27
J.T. CompherLW · #37	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	13:33
A. CoppC · #18	0	0	-1	1	0	1	0	16:41
A. DeBrincatRW · #93	1	0	-1	6	0	1	2	17:51
E. FinnieC · #58	0	0	-2	1	1	0	0	16:56
P. KaneRW · #88	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	17:26
M. KasperC · #92	1	0	1	4	1	1	0	13:32
D. LarkinC · #71	0	0	-2	1	0	0	0	17:33
C. MazurLW · #34	0	0	1	0	0	2	0	12:23
D. PerronLW · #57	1	0	1	3	0	1	0	14:48
L. RaymondLW · #23	0	0	-2	0	0	1	0	18:04
J. van RiemsdykLW · #21	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	12:14

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. ChiarotD · #8	0	1	-1	1	1	1	0	17:43
S. EdvinssonD · #77	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	21:17
J. FaulkD · #72	0	1	-1	4	1	0	0	20:28
A. JohanssonD · #20	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	13:43
A. Sandin-PellikkaD · #44	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	17:52
M. SeiderD · #53	0	0	-1	4	1	1	0	25:50

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. TalbotG · #39	22	4	18	.818	60:27

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
O. BjorkstrandRW · #22	0	1	0	1	0	1	0	8:55
A. CirelliC · #71	0	0	-1	1	0	1	0	17:37
C. GeekieC · #14	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	8:49
Z. GirgensonsC · #28	0	1	1	0	2	0	0	15:54
G. GoncalvesC · #93	0	0	-2	1	0	0	0	15:10
Y. GourdeC · #37	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	18:10
J. GuentzelC · #59	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	21:29
N. KucherovRW · #86	1	1	0	3	0	0	0	16:29
N. PaulLW · #20	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	15:00
C. PerryRW · #10	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	13:29
B. PointC · #21	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	16:13
S. SabourinRW · #46	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	8:56

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. CarlileD · #67	0	0	1	2	0	5	0	20:22
E. CernakD · #81	1	0	1	2	1	2	0	19:42
C. D'AstousD · #51	0	0	-2	1	1	2	4	17:35
E. LillebergD · #78	0	0	-2	1	4	1	0	18:49
R. McDonaghD · #27	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	20:32
J.J. MoserD · #90	0	1	2	2	0	1	2	22:10

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. VasilevskiyG · #88	30	3	27	.900	60:27

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

DET

Away

Stat

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

TB wins series 3-1

Oct 17

TB1@

DET2

Nov 28

TB6@

DET3

Mar 12

DET1@

TB4

Apr 13

DET3@

TB4today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TB -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

DET+16438%

TB-19866%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TB -1.5↗SpreadBet TB -1.5↗

Line movement · 50 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

TB beat DET 4-3. N. Kucherov led the way — 1 G · 1 A · 3 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	OT	T
DET	1	0	2	0	3
TB	1	2	0	1	4

Period scoring

DET won 1 · TB won 2

DET

Play-by-play · 275 plays

period

event

player

OT·0:27
Game End
DET 3·TB 4
OT·0:27
End of OT
DET 3·TB 4
OT·0:27
Nikita Kucherov Goal (44) Wrist Shot, assists: Brayden Point (32)
·
DET 3·TB 4
OT·0:18
Alex DeBrincat Wrist Shot saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
·
DET 3·TB 3
OT·0:00
Andrew Copp faceoff won against Brayden Point
·
DET 3·TB 3
OT·0:00
Start of Overtime
DET 3·TB 3
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
DET 3·TB 3
3rd·19:56
Declan Carlile Snap Shot Wide Right
·
DET 3·TB 3
3rd·19:54
Brayden Point faceoff won against J.T. Compher
·
DET 3·TB 3
3rd·19:54
Puck in Benches
DET 3·TB 3
3rd·19:51
J.J. Moser shot blocked by David Perron
·
DET 3·TB 3
3rd·19:27
Nick Paul faceoff won against J.T. Compher
·
DET 3·TB 3
3rd·19:27
Icing
DET 3·TB 3
3rd·18:13
Nikita Kucherov Slap Shot Hit Right Post
·
DET 3·TB 3
3rd·18:11
Andrew Copp faceoff won against Anthony Cirelli
·
DET 3·TB 3
3rd·18:11
Icing
DET 3·TB 3
3rd·17:29
Brayden Point shot blocked by Marco Kasper
·
DET 3·TB 3
3rd·16:49
Jake Guentzel faceoff won against Marco Kasper
·
DET 3·TB 3
3rd·16:49
Puck in Crowd
DET 3·TB 3
3rd·15:55
Giveaway by Nick Paul
DET 3·TB 3
3rd·15:45
Erik Cernak Snap Shot Wide Right
·
DET 3·TB 3
3rd·15:32
Ryan McDonagh shot blocked by Lucas Raymond
·
DET 3·TB 3
3rd·15:16
Nick Paul faceoff won against Dylan Larkin
·
DET 3·TB 3
3rd·15:16
Alex DeBrincat Goal (41) Wrist Shot, assists: Patrick Kane (41)
·
DET 3·TB 3
3rd·15:11
Takeaway by Patrick Kane
DET 2·TB 3
3rd·14:35
Ben Chiarot hit Conor Geekie
·
DET 2·TB 3
3rd·14:33
Scott Sabourin hit Justin Faulk
·
DET 2·TB 3
3rd·14:28
Marco Kasper Slap Shot Wide Left
·
DET 2·TB 3
3rd·14:25
James van Riemsdyk shot blocked by Declan Carlile
·
DET 2·TB 3
3rd·14:15
Scott Sabourin hit Justin Faulk
·
DET 2·TB 3

Betting line

TB -1.5·O/U 6.5·DET +164/TB -198

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

ampa Bay Lightning held off Detroit Red Wings, 4–3 in overtime.

DET +1.5 cashed (TB won by 1). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 12 skaters with EDGE

Alex DeBrincatDET · RW
iXG36.999
Moritz SeiderDET · D
DIST MI299.899
Dylan LarkinDET · C
iXG33.898
Patrick KaneDET · RW
xGF%6296
Emmitt FinnieDET · C
BURSTS19394

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Alex DeBrincat · DET18:000.8553.3%56.3%18:00 TOI · 0.85 iXG · 53.3% CF · 56.3% xGF
Nikita Kucherov · TBL16:420.5160.7%54.6%16:42 TOI · 0.51 iXG · 60.7% CF · 54.6% xGF
Marco Kasper · DET13:420.4074.1%59.3%13:42 TOI · 0.40 iXG · 74.1% CF · 59.3% xGF
Erik Cernak · TBL20:120.3435.1%34.9%20:12 TOI · 0.34 iXG · 35.1% CF · 34.9% xGF
David Perron · DET15:000.3147.8%58.9%15:00 TOI · 0.31 iXG · 47.8% CF · 58.9% xGF
Brayden Point · TBL16:300.3052.2%37.4%16:30 TOI · 0.30 iXG · 52.2% CF · 37.4% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Andrei Vasilevskiy · TBL27–3.900-0.2927–3 · .900 SV% · -0.29 GSAx
Cam Talbot · DET18–4.818-1.3418–4 · .818 SV% · -1.34 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

61.1%

ensemble · TB favored

Elo Static
65.8%
P(TB win)
68%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
65.8%
P(TB win)
16%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
65.8%
P(TB win)
17%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-198

Close price

-198

Open no-vig

63.7%

Close no-vig

63.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in DET at TB?: The model favors TB, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.