Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MIN at STL?

The model favors MIN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3STL

MIN

45-24-12

STL

35-33-12

NHLMon, Apr 13FinalSeriesSTL wins series 2-1VegasSTL -185

MIN · top performer

Nick Foligno

LW · #71

2Points

—

SOG

STL · top performer

Jimmy Snuggerud

RW · #21

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. Aube-KubelRW · #16	0	0	-1	0	1	0	0	9:12
B. BrinkRW · #10	0	0	-3	2	3	0	0	18:06
R. FabbriC · #21	0	0	-1	1	0	0	2	10:23
N. FolignoLW · #71	1	1	1	2	0	0	0	17:17
H. HaightC · #37	0	0	-2	3	1	0	2	14:40
M. JohanssonLW · #90	0	1	-3	2	0	0	0	19:34
B. JonesC · #39	0	0	-1	1	3	0	0	10:06
M. McCarronC · #47	1	0	0	3	2	0	0	18:01
N. SturmC · #78	0	0	0	2	3	0	2	11:13
V. TarasenkoRW · #91	0	1	-2	2	0	0	0	19:37
Y. TreninC · #13	0	1	-1	2	4	0	5	16:28
D. YurovRW · #22	1	0	-2	2	1	0	2	18:53

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
V. Gustafsson NybergD · #6	0	0	-1	0	1	0	0	21:57
D. HuntD · #48	0	1	1	3	1	1	0	18:21
M. KierstedD · #26	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	19:15
J. MiddletonD · #5	0	0	-3	2	0	3	0	14:51
J. PetryD · #2	0	0	-1	2	2	3	0	16:42
J. SpurgeonD · #46	0	0	-2	2	1	1	0	18:35

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
F. GustavssonG · #32	21	5	16	.762	58:49

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. BuchnevichLW · #89	1	0	2	1	0	1	0	17:07
J. DrouinLW · #92	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	15:35
D. DvorskyRW · #54	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	15:31
J. FinleyC · #37	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	12:35
D. HollowayLW · #81	0	0	-1	2	0	0	2	17:00
J. KyrouRW · #25	0	1	1	2	0	1	0	15:49
J. NeighboursLW · #63	1	0	1	1	5	0	2	13:26
J. SnuggerudRW · #21	1	1	1	2	1	0	2	15:44
O. StenbergC · #28	1	0	2	2	0	0	0	10:44
P. SuterC · #22	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	14:36
R. ThomasC · #18	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	18:01
A. ToropchenkoRW · #13	0	1	1	0	1	1	0	11:44

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. BrobergD · #6	0	0	2	1	0	1	0	21:52
C. FowlerD · #17	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	17:16
T. LindsteinD · #41	1	0	2	3	0	1	0	15:34
L. MaillouxD · #23	0	0	3	1	3	0	0	24:17
C. ParaykoD · #55	1	0	2	1	1	0	7	16:09
T. TuckerD · #75	0	1	0	0	1	1	0	17:57

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. HoferG · #30	31	3	28	.903	59:50

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

MIN

Away

Stat

STL

Home

Shots

20.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

STL wins series 2-1

Oct 10

MIN5@

STL0

Mar 1

STL3@

MIN1

Apr 14

MIN3@

STL6today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

STL -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

MIN+15439%

STL-18565%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet STL -1.5↗SpreadBet STL -1.5↗

Line movement · 60 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

STL beat MIN 6-3. J. Snuggerud led the way — 1 G · 1 A · 2 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
MIN	2	1	0	3
STL	1	3	2	6

Period scoring

MIN won 1 · STL won 2

MIN

STL

Play-by-play · 280 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
MIN 3·STL 6
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
MIN 3·STL 6
3rd·19:50
Philip Broberg shot blocked by Daemon Hunt
·
MIN 3·STL 6
3rd·19:19
Viking Gustafsson-Nyberg hit Pavel Buchnevich
·
MIN 3·STL 6
3rd·19:12
Giveaway by Marcus Johansson
MIN 3·STL 6
3rd·18:18
Giveaway by Jimmy Snuggerud
MIN 3·STL 6
3rd·18:09
Robert Thomas faceoff won against Ben Jones
·
MIN 3·STL 6
3rd·18:09
Puck Frozen - Goalie
MIN 3·STL 6
3rd·16:58
Jake Neighbours hit Matt Kiersted
·
MIN 3·STL 6
3rd·16:56
Nick Foligno faceoff won against Dalibor Dvorsky
·
MIN 3·STL 6
3rd·16:56
Jimmy Snuggerud Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: none
MIN 3·STL 6
3rd·16:52
Giveaway by Bobby Brink
MIN 3·STL 5
3rd·16:43
Giveaway by Jimmy Snuggerud
MIN 3·STL 5
3rd·16:41
Bobby Brink Wrist Shot saved by Joel Hofer
·
MIN 3·STL 5
3rd·16:17
Michael McCarron faceoff won against Jack Finley
·
MIN 3·STL 5
3rd·16:17
Goalie Stopped
MIN 3·STL 5
3rd·16:15
Jared Spurgeon Wrist Shot saved by Joel Hofer
·
MIN 3·STL 5
3rd·16:05
Tyler Tucker hit Bobby Brink
·
MIN 3·STL 5
3rd·15:46
Bobby Brink hit Jake Neighbours
·
MIN 3·STL 5
3rd·14:54
Theo Lindstein Snap Shot Wide Left
·
MIN 3·STL 5
3rd·14:44
Takeaway by Colton Parayko
MIN 3·STL 5
3rd·14:16
Takeaway by Robert Thomas
MIN 3·STL 5
3rd·13:54
Robby Fabbri Tip-In Wide Right
·
MIN 3·STL 5
3rd·13:53
Giveaway by Robert Thomas
MIN 3·STL 5
3rd·13:48
Nicolas Aube-Kubel hit Logan Mailloux
·
MIN 3·STL 5
3rd·13:18
Dylan Holloway Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
MIN 3·STL 5
3rd·13:07
Yakov Trenin shot blocked by Michael McCarron
·
MIN 3·STL 5
3rd·13:06
Michael McCarron Poke saved by Joel Hofer
·
MIN 3·STL 5
3rd·13:05
Yakov Trenin Wrist Shot saved by Joel Hofer
·
MIN 3·STL 5
3rd·13:01
Pius Suter hit Daemon Hunt
·
MIN 3·STL 5

Betting line

STL -1.5·O/U 5.5·MIN +154/STL -185

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

t. Louis Blues held off Minnesota Wild, 6–3.

STL -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.1%

ensemble · MIN favored

Elo Static
49.1%
P(STL win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
49.1%
P(STL win)
14%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
49.1%
P(STL win)
17%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+154

Close price

+154

Open no-vig

37.8%

Close no-vig

37.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MIN at STL?: The model favors MIN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Minnesota WildSt. Louis Blues

Elsewhere in the NHL