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FINAL+1SJ
SJ

SJ

38-34-8

32
NSH

NSH

38-33-10

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLMon, Apr 13FinalSeriesNSH wins series 2-1VegasNSH -155

Recap · NHL

an Jose Sharks went into Nashville Predators and beat them, 3–2.

SJ +1.5 cashed (NSH lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

SJ · top performer

SJ
Macklin Celebrini

Macklin Celebrini

C · #71

2Points

2

G

0

A

—

SOG

NSH · top performer

NSH
Luke Evangelista

Luke Evangelista

RW · #77

2Points

2

G

0

A

—

SOG

NHL · San Jose Sharks at Nashville Predators · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
3
2
SJ38-34-8NSH38-33-10
SJ

SJ

38-34-8

3
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
NSH

NSH

38-33-10

2
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

2

PIM

2

Season series

NSH wins series 2-1

Mar 25SJSJ3@NSHNSH6
Apr 5NSHNSH6@SJSJ3
Apr 14SJSJ3@NSHNSH2today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NSH -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

SJSJ+13043%
NSHNSH-15561%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NSH -1.5↗SpreadBet NSH -1.5↗

Line movement · 11 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

SJ beat NSH 3-2.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
SJ0123
NSH0022

Period scoring

SJ won 1 · NSH won 0

0
0

1

1
0

2

2
2

3

SJ
NSH

Play-by-play · 300 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    SJ 3·NSH 2

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    SJ 3·NSH 2

  3. 3rd·19:57

    Takeaway by Mario Ferraro

    SJ 3·NSH 2

  4. 3rd·19:42

    Filip Forsberg Slap Shot saved by Alex Nedeljkovic

    ·

    SJ 3·NSH 2

  5. 3rd·19:27

    Roman Josi Slap Shot High and Wide Right

    ·

    SJ 3·NSH 2

  6. 3rd·19:25

    Ryan O'Reilly faceoff won against Alexander Wennberg

    ·

    SJ 3·NSH 2

  7. 3rd·19:25

    Puck in Netting

    SJ 3·NSH 2

  8. 3rd·19:22

    Roman Josi Wrist Shot saved by Alex Nedeljkovic

    ·

    SJ 3·NSH 2

  9. 3rd·18:58

    Mario Ferraro hit Luke Evangelista

    ·

    SJ 3·NSH 2

  10. 3rd·18:57

    Luke Evangelista Wrist Shot Wide Right

    ·

    SJ 3·NSH 2

  11. 3rd·18:50

    Erik Haula faceoff won against Alexander Wennberg

    ·

    SJ 3·NSH 2

  12. 3rd·18:50

    Luke Evangelista Goal (12) Deflected, assists: Ryan Ufko (7), Roman Josi (42)

    · ·

    SJ 3·NSH 2

  13. 3rd·18:47

    Ryan Ufko Wrist Shot saved by Alex Nedeljkovic

    ·

    SJ 3·NSH 1

  14. 3rd·18:15

    Zack Ostapchuk faceoff won against Erik Haula

    ·

    SJ 3·NSH 1

  15. 3rd·18:15

    Macklin Celebrini Goal (44) Wrist Shot, assists: Collin Graf (25), Alexander Wennberg (37)

    · ·

    SJ 3·NSH 1

  16. 3rd·17:47

    Steven Stamkos faceoff won against Alexander Wennberg

    ·

    SJ 2·NSH 1

  17. 3rd·17:47

    Puck in Crowd

    SJ 2·NSH 1

  18. 3rd·17:41

    Barclay Goodrow hit Tyson Jost

    ·

    SJ 2·NSH 1

  19. 3rd·16:46

    Steven Stamkos shot blocked by Alexander Wennberg

    ·

    SJ 2·NSH 1

  20. 3rd·15:48

    Zack Ostapchuk hit Adam Wilsby

    ·

    SJ 2·NSH 1

  21. 3rd·15:39

    Matthew Wood faceoff won against Adam Gaudette

    ·

    SJ 2·NSH 1

  22. 3rd·15:39

    Luke Evangelista Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Perbix (10), Ryan Ufko (6)

    · ·

    SJ 2·NSH 1

  23. 3rd·15:22

    Giveaway by Nick Perbix

    SJ 2·NSH 0

  24. 3rd·15:01

    Igor Chernyshov Wrist Shot saved by Justus Annunen

    ·

    SJ 2·NSH 0

  25. 3rd·14:44

    Kiefer Sherwood hit Brady Skjei

    · ·

    SJ 2·NSH 0

  26. 3rd·14:31

    Kiefer Sherwood Wrist Shot Wide Left

    · ·

    SJ 2·NSH 0

  27. 3rd·14:01

    Alexander Wennberg faceoff won against Ryan O'Reilly

    ·

    SJ 2·NSH 0

  28. 3rd·14:01

    Goalie Stopped

    SJ 2·NSH 0

  29. 3rd·13:59

    Erik Haula shot blocked by Shakir Mukhamadullin

    ·

    SJ 2·NSH 0

  30. 3rd·13:51

    Adam Gaudette faceoff won against Erik Haula

    ·

    SJ 2·NSH 0

Team stats

SJ

Away

Stat

NSH

Home

23

Shots

28

100.0

PCT

0.0

2

PIM

2

26

Faceoffs W

26

14

Blocks

11

18

Giveaways

11

3

Takeaways

6

Betting line

NSH -1.5·O/U 6.5·SJ +130/NSH -155

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 11 skaters with EDGE
  • Ryan O'ReillyNSH · C
    DIST MI265.898
  • Brady SkjeiNSH · D
    SKATE MPH23.497
  • Filip ForsbergNSH · LW
    DIST MI246.195
  • Roman JosiNSH · D
    DIST MI245.490
  • Adam WilsbyNSH · D
    BURSTS6889

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · NSH favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(NSH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(NSH win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(NSH win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-155

Close price

-155

Open no-vig

58.3%

Close no-vig

58.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR