Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in SJ at NSH?

The model favors NSH, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1SJ

38-34-8

NSH

38-33-10

NHLMon, Apr 13FinalSeriesNSH wins series 2-1VegasNSH -155

SJ · top performer

Macklin Celebrini

C · #71

2Points

—

SOG

NSH · top performer

Luke Evangelista

RW · #77

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. CelebriniC · #71	2	0	2	2	1	0	0	19:34
I. ChernyshovLW · #92	1	1	1	3	1	1	0	15:02
W. EklundLW · #72	0	1	-2	1	2	0	0	16:57
A. GaudetteRW · #81	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	11:17
B. GoodrowC · #23	0	0	-1	1	4	2	0	11:40
C. GrafRW · #51	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	16:30
M. MisaC · #77	0	1	0	1	0	1	0	10:58
Z. OstapchukC · #63	0	0	-1	1	2	0	0	12:01
K. SherwoodLW · #44	0	0	-1	3	4	0	0	16:33
W. SmithC · #2	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	16:28
T. ToffoliC · #73	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	11:55
A. WennbergC · #21	0	1	0	0	0	2	0	20:54

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. CagnoniD · #42	0	0	1	1	2	2	0	14:53
V. DesharnaisD · #5	0	0	2	0	3	0	0	19:56
S. DickinsonD · #6	0	0	-1	0	1	1	0	19:45
M. FerraroD · #38	0	0	0	1	4	2	2	22:42
S. MukhamadullinD · #85	0	0	-1	1	1	1	0	20:59
D. OrlovD · #9	0	0	-1	2	0	2	0	20:03

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. NedeljkovicG · #33	28	2	26	.929	59:53

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. EvangelistaRW · #77	2	0	2	3	0	0	0	19:06
F. ForsbergLW · #9	0	0	-1	2	1	2	0	22:19
E. HaulaLW · #56	0	0	0	1	5	0	0	17:34
T. JostC · #17	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	14:52
J. KemellRW · #25	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	5:11
Z. L'HeureuxLW · #68	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	10:02
J. MarchessaultRW · #81	0	0	-2	0	1	0	0	18:29
R. O'ReillyC · #90	0	0	-1	4	1	0	0	22:09
R. SchaeferLW · #49	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	6:36
S. StamkosC · #91	0	0	0	9	1	0	2	22:50
F. SvechkovC · #40	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	11:49
M. WoodRW · #71	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	11:39

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. BarronD · #20	0	0	-1	1	1	0	0	17:25
R. JosiD · #59	0	1	0	2	0	1	0	25:48
N. PerbixD · #48	0	1	1	0	0	3	0	16:15
B. SkjeiD · #76	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	23:02
R. UfkoD · #85	0	2	1	2	1	0	0	16:30
A. WilsbyD · #83	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	18:17

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. AnnunenG · #29	22	2	20	.909	58:08

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

Away

Stat

NSH

Home

Shots

100.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

NSH wins series 2-1

Mar 25

SJ3@

NSH6

Apr 5

NSH6@

SJ3

Apr 14

SJ3@

NSH2today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NSH -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

SJ+13043%

NSH-15561%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NSH -1.5↗SpreadBet NSH -1.5↗

Line movement · 90 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

SJ beat NSH 3-2. M. Celebrini led the way — 2 G · 2 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
SJ	0	1	2	3
NSH	0	0	2	2

Period scoring

SJ won 1 · NSH won 0

NSH

Play-by-play · 300 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
SJ 3·NSH 2
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
SJ 3·NSH 2
3rd·19:57
Takeaway by Mario Ferraro
SJ 3·NSH 2
3rd·19:42
Filip Forsberg Slap Shot saved by Alex Nedeljkovic
·
SJ 3·NSH 2
3rd·19:27
Roman Josi Slap Shot High and Wide Right
·
SJ 3·NSH 2
3rd·19:25
Ryan O'Reilly faceoff won against Alexander Wennberg
·
SJ 3·NSH 2
3rd·19:25
Puck in Netting
SJ 3·NSH 2
3rd·19:22
Roman Josi Wrist Shot saved by Alex Nedeljkovic
·
SJ 3·NSH 2
3rd·18:58
Mario Ferraro hit Luke Evangelista
·
SJ 3·NSH 2
3rd·18:57
Luke Evangelista Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
SJ 3·NSH 2
3rd·18:50
Erik Haula faceoff won against Alexander Wennberg
·
SJ 3·NSH 2
3rd·18:50
Luke Evangelista Goal (12) Deflected, assists: Ryan Ufko (7), Roman Josi (42)
· ·
SJ 3·NSH 2
3rd·18:47
Ryan Ufko Wrist Shot saved by Alex Nedeljkovic
·
SJ 3·NSH 1
3rd·18:15
Zack Ostapchuk faceoff won against Erik Haula
·
SJ 3·NSH 1
3rd·18:15
Macklin Celebrini Goal (44) Wrist Shot, assists: Collin Graf (25), Alexander Wennberg (37)
· ·
SJ 3·NSH 1
3rd·17:47
Steven Stamkos faceoff won against Alexander Wennberg
·
SJ 2·NSH 1
3rd·17:47
Puck in Crowd
SJ 2·NSH 1
3rd·17:41
Barclay Goodrow hit Tyson Jost
·
SJ 2·NSH 1
3rd·16:46
Steven Stamkos shot blocked by Alexander Wennberg
·
SJ 2·NSH 1
3rd·15:48
Zack Ostapchuk hit Adam Wilsby
·
SJ 2·NSH 1
3rd·15:39
Matthew Wood faceoff won against Adam Gaudette
·
SJ 2·NSH 1
3rd·15:39
Luke Evangelista Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Perbix (10), Ryan Ufko (6)
· ·
SJ 2·NSH 1
3rd·15:22
Giveaway by Nick Perbix
SJ 2·NSH 0
3rd·15:01
Igor Chernyshov Wrist Shot saved by Justus Annunen
·
SJ 2·NSH 0
3rd·14:44
Kiefer Sherwood hit Brady Skjei
· ·
SJ 2·NSH 0
3rd·14:31
Kiefer Sherwood Wrist Shot Wide Left
· ·
SJ 2·NSH 0
3rd·14:01
Alexander Wennberg faceoff won against Ryan O'Reilly
·
SJ 2·NSH 0
3rd·14:01
Goalie Stopped
SJ 2·NSH 0
3rd·13:59
Erik Haula shot blocked by Shakir Mukhamadullin
·
SJ 2·NSH 0
3rd·13:51
Adam Gaudette faceoff won against Erik Haula
·
SJ 2·NSH 0

Betting line

NSH -1.5·O/U 6.5·SJ +130/NSH -155

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

an Jose Sharks went into Nashville Predators and beat them, 3–2.

SJ +1.5 cashed (NSH lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

60.7%

ensemble · NSH favored

Elo Static
60.7%
P(NSH win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
60.7%
P(NSH win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
60.7%
P(NSH win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-155

Close price

-155

Open no-vig

58.3%

Close no-vig

58.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in SJ at NSH?: The model favors NSH, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

San Jose SharksNashville Predators

Elsewhere in the NHL