Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in LA at SEA?

The model favors SEA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+2LA

35-26-19

SEA

34-35-11

NHLMon, Apr 13FinalSeriesSEA wins series 3-1VegasLA -175

LA · top performer

Quinton Byfield

RW · #55

2Points

—

SOG

SEA · top performer

Bobby McMann

C · #74

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. ArmiaRW · #40	0	0	-1	0	2	1	0	13:44
Q. ByfieldRW · #55	2	0	3	8	1	0	0	20:17
S. HeleniusC · #79	0	0	0	1	0	0	7	6:44
M. JosephRW · #17	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	8:30
A. KempeRW · #9	1	0	0	5	1	0	0	17:18
A. KopitarC · #11	0	1	0	2	0	0	0	19:05
A. LaferriereRW · #14	1	1	3	5	1	0	0	21:10
S. LaughtonC · #21	0	0	-2	2	2	1	0	16:19
T. MooreLW · #12	1	1	3	1	0	1	0	18:31
A. PanarinLW · #10	0	0	-1	0	0	1	0	16:27
T. WardRW · #52	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	8:20
J. WrightRW · #53	0	0	-2	3	2	1	0	13:00

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. AndersonD · #44	0	0	2	0	1	2	0	22:17
C. CeciD · #5	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	19:45
B. ClarkeD · #92	0	0	-1	1	2	3	0	18:58
D. DoughtyD · #8	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	22:31
B. DumoulinD · #2	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	18:25
J. EdmundsonD · #6	0	1	-1	0	0	3	0	16:39

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. ForsbergG · #31	33	3	30	.909	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BeniersC · #10	0	2	-1	0	0	1	0	18:06
B. CattonC · #27	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	11:20
J. EberleRW · #7	0	0	-2	2	0	0	0	17:03
O. Fisker MolgaardC · #78	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	9:26
F. GaudreauC · #89	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	18:17
K. KakkoRW · #84	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	14:07
B. McMannC · #74	1	0	-2	4	4	0	0	17:54
J. MelansonRW · #63	0	0	0	2	7	0	7	7:41
J. SchwartzC · #17	0	1	0	2	0	0	0	16:49
C. StephensonC · #9	0	1	0	1	1	0	0	16:29
E. TolvanenRW · #20	0	0	0	3	2	0	2	14:44
R. WintertonC · #26	0	0	1	2	3	1	0	15:07

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
V. DunnD · #29	0	0	3	5	0	2	2	15:44
R. EvansD · #41	0	0	-1	2	2	2	0	22:37
A. LarssonD · #6	1	0	2	1	0	1	0	19:16
R. LindgrenD · #55	0	0	-3	1	0	1	0	18:42
B. MontourD · #62	0	0	-2	5	0	0	0	23:58
J. OleksiakD · #24	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	19:24

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. KokkoG · #39	29	4	25	.862	57:41

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

Away

Stat

SEA

Home

Shots

50.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

SEA wins series 3-1

Dec 11

LA2@

SEA3

Dec 24

SEA3@

LA2

Feb 5

SEA4@

LA2

Apr 14

LA5@

SEA3today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LA -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

LA-17564%

SEA+14541%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LA -1.5↗SpreadBet LA -1.5↗

Line movement · 86 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

LA beat SEA 5-3. Q. Byfield led the way — 2 G · 8 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
LA	2	1	2	5
SEA	0	0	3	3

Period scoring

LA won 2 · SEA won 1

SEA

Play-by-play · 341 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
LA 5·SEA 3
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
LA 5·SEA 3
3rd·19:58
Oscar Fisker Molgaard faceoff won against Scott Laughton
·
LA 5·SEA 3
3rd·19:58
Alex Laferriere Goal (20) Backhand, assists: Joel Edmundson (21)
·
LA 5·SEA 3
3rd·19:55
Alex Laferriere Wrist Shot Wide Right
LA 4·SEA 3
3rd·19:28
Scott Laughton faceoff won against Chandler Stephenson
·
LA 4·SEA 3
3rd·19:28
Puck in Crowd
LA 4·SEA 3
3rd·19:25
Bobby McMann Snap Shot saved by Anton Forsberg
·
LA 4·SEA 3
3rd·19:13
Anze Kopitar shot blocked by Matty Beniers
·
LA 4·SEA 3
3rd·18:23
Anze Kopitar faceoff won against Freddy Gaudreau
·
LA 4·SEA 3
3rd·18:23
Vince Dunn Tripping against Quinton Byfield
·
LA 4·SEA 3
3rd·18:16
Giveaway by Bobby McMann
LA 4·SEA 3
3rd·18:06
Joel Edmundson shot blocked by Vince Dunn
·
LA 4·SEA 3
3rd·17:42
Brandon Montour shot blocked by Joel Edmundson
·
LA 4·SEA 3
3rd·17:40
Chandler Stephenson faceoff won against Quinton Byfield
·
LA 4·SEA 3
3rd·17:40
Icing
LA 4·SEA 3
3rd·17:33
Quinton Byfield faceoff won against Freddy Gaudreau
·
LA 4·SEA 3
3rd·17:33
Bobby McMann Goal (29) Snap Shot, assists: Matty Beniers (30), Chandler Stephenson (33)
· ·
LA 4·SEA 3
3rd·17:26
Brandon Montour shot blocked by Scott Laughton
·
LA 4·SEA 2
3rd·16:59
Scott Laughton faceoff won against Chandler Stephenson
·
LA 4·SEA 2
3rd·16:59
Icing
LA 4·SEA 2
3rd·16:54
Anton Forsberg Wrist Shot Wide Left
LA 4·SEA 2
3rd·16:42
Scott Laughton faceoff won against Matty Beniers
·
LA 4·SEA 2
3rd·16:42
Icing
LA 4·SEA 2
3rd·15:57
Ryan Lindgren shot blocked by Mathieu Joseph
·
LA 4·SEA 2
3rd·15:39
Anze Kopitar faceoff won against Oscar Fisker Molgaard
·
LA 4·SEA 2
3rd·15:39
Goalie Stopped
LA 4·SEA 2
3rd·15:37
Quinton Byfield Wrist Shot saved by Nikke Kokko
·
LA 4·SEA 2
3rd·15:35
Giveaway by Matty Beniers
LA 4·SEA 2
3rd·15:32
Alex Laferriere Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
LA 4·SEA 2

Betting line

LA -1.5·O/U 5.5·LA -175/SEA +145

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

os Angeles Kings went into Seattle Kraken and beat them, 5–3.

LA -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

55.6%

ensemble · SEA favored

Elo Static
55.7%
P(SEA win)
46%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
55.7%
P(SEA win)
10%
weight
Xg Blend
55.5%
P(SEA win)
44%
weight

Disagreement

0.10 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

99% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

2 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+145

Close price

+145

Open no-vig

39.1%

Close no-vig

39.1%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in LA at SEA?: The model favors SEA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Player projections

SEA vs LA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

138

projections · 129 high confidence

Shots on goal

Alex LaferriereLA
3.0± 1.6high
Quinton ByfieldLA
3.0± 2.2high
Bobby McMannSEA
3.0± 1.8high

Goals

Adrian KempeLA
0.5± 0.7high
Quinton ByfieldLA
0.4± 0.7high
Mackie SamoskevichSEA
0.4± 0.5high

Points

Mats ZuccarelloLA
1.1± 1.1high
Alex LaferriereLA
0.8± 0.8high
Artemi PanarinLA
0.8± 0.7high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Los Angeles KingsSeattle Kraken

Elsewhere in the NHL