Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NYR at FLA?

The model favors FLA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1FLA

NYR

33-39-9

FLA

39-38-4

NHLMon, Apr 13FinalSeriesNYR win series 2-1VegasNYR -155

NYR · top performer

Gabe Perreault

RW · #94

1Points

—

SOG

FLA · top performer

Cole Reinhardt

LW · #29

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. BrodzinskiC · #22	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	13:29
J. ChmelarRW · #49	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	10:33
W. CuylleLW · #50	0	0	0	0	7	1	2	15:32
T. KartyeLW · #24	0	0	-1	1	3	0	2	12:35
N. LabaC · #42	0	1	0	2	1	0	0	11:04
A. LafreniereLW · #13	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	22:10
J.T. MillerLW · #8	0	0	-1	2	2	2	0	20:13
G. PerreaultRW · #94	1	0	0	3	1	1	0	16:36
C. ShearyLW · #43	0	0	-1	0	0	2	0	11:50
A. SykoraLW · #38	0	0	0	1	3	2	0	9:57
V. TrocheckC · #16	0	0	0	4	0	1	0	19:45
M. ZibanejadC · #93	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	21:26

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
W. BorgenD · #17	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	17:35
D. FortescueD · #45	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	13:02
A. FoxD · #23	0	1	0	3	0	0	0	28:10
V. GavrikovD · #44	0	0	1	4	0	1	0	21:13
M. RobertsonD · #29	1	0	0	1	2	0	0	17:05
B. SchneiderD · #4	0	0	-2	0	0	2	0	15:28

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. QuickG · #32	16	3	13	.813	58:17

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. BoqvistC · #70	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	15:52
N. FooteLW · #25	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	10:52
A.J. GreerLW · #10	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	13:21
N. GregorLW · #18	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	14:48
V. HinostrozaC · #24	0	1	1	0	2	1	0	16:43
L. KuninC · #71	0	1	1	0	5	0	2	14:51
E. LuostarinenC · #27	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	12:27
T. NosekLW · #92	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	15:50
C. ReinhardtLW · #29	2	0	1	2	3	0	0	16:03
M. SamoskevichRW · #11	1	0	0	1	1	2	0	11:38
C. SchwindtRW · #79	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	16:09
W. SkoogC · #32	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	15:14

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. AlscherD · #4	0	0	0	2	3	2	0	22:04
M. BenningD · #20	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	20:00
T. BjornfotD · #22	0	1	0	3	1	2	0	21:35
G. ForslingD · #42	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	13:58
L. JanssonD · #54	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	18:38
D. SebrangoD · #6	0	1	1	2	3	1	0	21:57

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. TarasovG · #40	27	2	25	.926	60:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

NYR

Away

Stat

FLA

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

NYR win series 2-1

Jan 3

NYR5@

FLA1

Mar 29

FLA1@

NYR3

Apr 13

NYR2@

FLA3today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NYR -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

NYR-15561%

FLA+13043%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NYR -1.5↗SpreadBet NYR -1.5↗

Line movement · 90 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

FLA beat NYR 3-2. C. Reinhardt led the way — 2 G · 2 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
NYR	1	1	0	2
FLA	2	0	1	3

Period scoring

NYR won 1 · FLA won 2

NYR

FLA

Play-by-play · 279 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
NYR 2·FLA 3
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
NYR 2·FLA 3
3rd·19:54
Vincent Trocheck faceoff won against Luke Kunin
·
NYR 2·FLA 3
3rd·19:54
Icing
NYR 2·FLA 3
3rd·19:49
Takeaway by Cole Reinhardt
NYR 2·FLA 3
3rd·19:32
Wilmer Skoog Snap Shot Wide Right
NYR 2·FLA 3
3rd·19:09
Will Cuylle hit Jesper Boqvist
·
NYR 2·FLA 3
3rd·19:08
Jesper Boqvist Snap Shot Wide Left
NYR 2·FLA 3
3rd·19:03
Vincent Trocheck Snap Shot saved by Daniil Tarasov
·
NYR 2·FLA 3
3rd·18:35
Tobias Bjornfot hit Vincent Trocheck
·
NYR 2·FLA 3
3rd·18:22
Giveaway by J.T. Miller
NYR 2·FLA 3
3rd·18:10
J.T. Miller faceoff won against Cole Schwindt
·
NYR 2·FLA 3
3rd·18:10
Cole Reinhardt Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Luke Kunin (5), Donovan Sebrango (7)
· ·
NYR 2·FLA 3
3rd·17:50
Donovan Sebrango Snap Shot saved by Jonathan Quick
·
NYR 2·FLA 2
3rd·17:39
Tomas Nosek hit Will Borgen
·
NYR 2·FLA 2
3rd·17:34
Tobias Bjornfot shot blocked by Jaroslav Chmelar
·
NYR 2·FLA 2
3rd·17:10
Nolan Foote Snap Shot Wide Right
·
NYR 2·FLA 2
3rd·17:07
Jesper Boqvist shot blocked by Adam Sykora
·
NYR 2·FLA 2
3rd·17:02
Nolan Foote hit Matthew Robertson
·
NYR 2·FLA 2
3rd·16:59
Jesper Boqvist hit Will Borgen
·
NYR 2·FLA 2
3rd·16:57
Matthew Robertson hit Nolan Foote
·
NYR 2·FLA 2
3rd·16:32
Will Cuylle hit Donovan Sebrango
·
NYR 2·FLA 2
3rd·16:00
Wilmer Skoog Snap Shot Wide Left
·
NYR 2·FLA 2
3rd·15:58
Giveaway by Jonathan Quick
NYR 2·FLA 2
3rd·15:51
Giveaway by J.T. Miller
NYR 2·FLA 2
3rd·14:59
Adam Fox Snap Shot Hit Left Post
·
NYR 2·FLA 2
3rd·14:54
Alexis Lafrenière Tip-In Wide Right
·
NYR 2·FLA 2
3rd·14:38
J.T. Miller faceoff won against Luke Kunin
·
NYR 2·FLA 2
3rd·14:38
On-Ice Official
NYR 2·FLA 2
3rd·14:38
Goalie Stopped
NYR 2·FLA 2

Betting line

NYR -1.5·O/U 6.5·NYR -155/FLA +130

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

lorida Panthers held off New York Rangers, 3–2.

FLA +1.5 cashed (NYR lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Vincent Trocheck · NYR19:360.6365.8%70.9%19:36 TOI · 0.63 iXG · 65.8% CF · 70.9% xGF
Mika Zibanejad · NYR21:180.5766.7%82.2%21:18 TOI · 0.57 iXG · 66.7% CF · 82.2% xGF
Gabe Perreault · NYR16:480.5355.6%71.1%16:48 TOI · 0.53 iXG · 55.6% CF · 71.1% xGF
J.T. Miller · NYR20:120.4655.3%74.0%20:12 TOI · 0.46 iXG · 55.3% CF · 74.0% xGF
Vladislav Gavrikov · NYR21:300.3167.6%78.9%21:30 TOI · 0.31 iXG · 67.6% CF · 78.9% xGF
Adam Fox · NYR28:060.3175.5%87.7%28:06 TOI · 0.31 iXG · 75.5% CF · 87.7% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Daniil Tarasov · FLA25–2.926+1.3525–2 · .926 SV% · +1.35 GSAx
Jonathan Quick · NYR13–3.813-1.4713–3 · .813 SV% · -1.47 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

59.7%

ensemble · FLA favored

Elo Static
59.7%
P(FLA win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
59.7%
P(FLA win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
59.7%
P(FLA win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+130

Close price

+130

Open no-vig

41.7%

Close no-vig

41.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NYR at FLA?: The model favors FLA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

New York RangersFlorida Panthers

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