NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1FLA

NYR

33-39-9

FLA

39-38-4

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLMon, Apr 13FinalSeriesNYR win series 2-1VegasNYR -155

Recap · NHL

lorida Panthers held off New York Rangers, 3–2.

FLA +1.5 cashed (NYR lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NYR · top performer

Noah Laba

C · #42

1Points

—

SOG

FLA · top performer

Cole Reinhardt

LW · #29

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

NYR33-39-9

FLA39-38-4

NYR33-39-9FLA39-38-4

NYR

33-39-9

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

FLA

39-38-4

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Season series

NYR win series 2-1

Jan 3

NYR5@

FLA1

Mar 29

FLA1@

NYR3

Apr 13

NYR2@

FLA3today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NYR -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

NYR-15561%

FLA+13043%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NYR -1.5↗SpreadBet NYR -1.5↗

Line movement · 10 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

FLA beat NYR 3-2.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
NYR	1	1	0	2
FLA	2	0	1	3

Period scoring

NYR won 1 · FLA won 2

NYR

FLA

Play-by-play · 279 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
NYR 2·FLA 3
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
NYR 2·FLA 3
3rd·19:54
Vincent Trocheck faceoff won against Luke Kunin
·
NYR 2·FLA 3
3rd·19:54
Icing
NYR 2·FLA 3
3rd·19:49
Takeaway by Cole Reinhardt
NYR 2·FLA 3
3rd·19:32
Wilmer Skoog Snap Shot Wide Right
NYR 2·FLA 3
3rd·19:09
Will Cuylle hit Jesper Boqvist
·
NYR 2·FLA 3
3rd·19:08
Jesper Boqvist Snap Shot Wide Left
NYR 2·FLA 3
3rd·19:03
Vincent Trocheck Snap Shot saved by Daniil Tarasov
·
NYR 2·FLA 3
3rd·18:35
Tobias Bjornfot hit Vincent Trocheck
·
NYR 2·FLA 3
3rd·18:22
Giveaway by J.T. Miller
NYR 2·FLA 3
3rd·18:10
J.T. Miller faceoff won against Cole Schwindt
·
NYR 2·FLA 3
3rd·18:10
Cole Reinhardt Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Luke Kunin (5), Donovan Sebrango (7)
· ·
NYR 2·FLA 3
3rd·17:50
Donovan Sebrango Snap Shot saved by Jonathan Quick
·
NYR 2·FLA 2
3rd·17:39
Tomas Nosek hit Will Borgen
·
NYR 2·FLA 2
3rd·17:34
Tobias Bjornfot shot blocked by Jaroslav Chmelar
·
NYR 2·FLA 2
3rd·17:10
Nolan Foote Snap Shot Wide Right
·
NYR 2·FLA 2
3rd·17:07
Jesper Boqvist shot blocked by Adam Sykora
·
NYR 2·FLA 2
3rd·17:02
Nolan Foote hit Matthew Robertson
·
NYR 2·FLA 2
3rd·16:59
Jesper Boqvist hit Will Borgen
·
NYR 2·FLA 2
3rd·16:57
Matthew Robertson hit Nolan Foote
·
NYR 2·FLA 2
3rd·16:32
Will Cuylle hit Donovan Sebrango
·
NYR 2·FLA 2
3rd·16:00
Wilmer Skoog Snap Shot Wide Left
·
NYR 2·FLA 2
3rd·15:58
Giveaway by Jonathan Quick
NYR 2·FLA 2
3rd·15:51
Giveaway by J.T. Miller
NYR 2·FLA 2
3rd·14:59
Adam Fox Snap Shot Hit Left Post
·
NYR 2·FLA 2
3rd·14:54
Alexis Lafrenière Tip-In Wide Right
·
NYR 2·FLA 2
3rd·14:38
J.T. Miller faceoff won against Luke Kunin
·
NYR 2·FLA 2
3rd·14:38
On-Ice Official
NYR 2·FLA 2
3rd·14:38
Goalie Stopped
NYR 2·FLA 2

Team stats

NYR

Away

Stat

FLA

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Betting line

NYR -1.5·O/U 6.5·NYR -155/FLA +130

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 22 skaters with EDGE

J.T. MillerNYR · LW
SHOT MPH102.699+
Gustav ForslingFLA · D
SHOT MPH100.497
Vinnie HinostrozaFLA · C
SKATE MPH23.696
Vladislav GavrikovNYR · D
DIST MI263.494
Noah LabaNYR · C
BURSTS17992

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.6%

ensemble · FLA favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(FLA win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(FLA win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(FLA win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+130

Close price

+130

Open no-vig

41.7%

Close no-vig

41.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Player projections

FLA vs NYR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

144

projections · 123 high confidence

Shots on goal

Sam BennettFLA
2.7± 2.1high
Sam ReinhartFLA
2.7± 1.9high
Matthew TkachukFLA
2.6± 1.7high

Goals

Carter VerhaegheFLA
0.4± 0.7high
Cole ReinhardtFLA
0.4± 0.7high
Mackie SamoskevichFLA
0.4± 0.5high

Points

Adam FoxNYR
1.2± 1.0high
Aleksander BarkovFLA
1.1± 1.1high
Matthew TkachukFLA
1.1± 1.4high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands