Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in WPG at VGK?

The model favors WPG, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+4VGK

WPG

35-33-12

VGK

38-26-17

NHLMon, Apr 13FinalSeriesVGK wins series 2-1VegasVGK -185

WPG · top performer

Mark Scheifele

C · #55

2Points

—

SOG

VGK · top performer

Jack Eichel

C · #9

4Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. ChibrikovRW · #90	0	0	-1	1	2	0	2	7:27
K. ConnorLW · #81	0	1	-2	3	1	1	0	21:25
C. KoepkeLW · #45	0	0	0	1	2	2	0	16:06
B. LambertC · #93	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	11:08
A. LowryC · #17	0	0	-1	0	0	3	4	16:00
N. NiederreiterRW · #62	0	0	-1	1	1	0	2	12:22
C. PerfettiC · #91	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	12:23
I. RosenRW · #27	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	12:29
M. ScheifeleC · #55	1	1	-1	2	0	0	4	21:02
J. ToewsC · #19	0	0	-2	0	0	0	2	17:28
G. VilardiC · #13	1	1	-1	2	0	0	2	17:52
B. YagerC · #29	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	10:25

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. BrysonD · #78	0	0	-1	2	0	2	0	13:21
D. DeMeloD · #2	0	0	-1	0	1	1	0	23:36
H. FleuryD · #24	0	0	-2	0	2	0	0	12:45
C. MillerD · #6	0	1	0	2	3	1	0	16:11
J. MorrisseyD · #44	0	0	-2	3	2	1	0	26:40
D. SambergD · #54	0	0	1	2	1	0	2	18:47

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. HellebuyckG · #37	38	6	32	.842	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
I. BarbashevLW · #49	1	1	3	1	1	0	2	14:27
P. DorofeyevRW · #16	1	0	0	2	0	0	0	16:42
N. DowdC · #26	0	0	0	1	0	2	2	12:17
J. EichelC · #9	1	3	3	4	0	0	0	17:34
T. HertlC · #48	0	0	-1	4	2	0	0	16:59
B. HowdenC · #21	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	16:03
K. KolesarRW · #55	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	11:19
M. MarnerRW · #93	0	0	0	2	0	0	2	18:39
C. SissonsC · #10	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	16:40
R. SmithRW · #19	1	0	0	3	0	0	0	14:13
C. SmithRW · #22	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	11:25
M. StoneRW · #61	1	2	3	3	1	1	0	16:06

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. AnderssonD · #4	1	1	3	7	2	1	0	20:10
N. HanifinD · #15	0	2	3	2	0	2	0	20:28
K. KorczakD · #6	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	11:34
J. LauzonD · #5	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	17:01
B. McNabbD · #3	0	0	0	1	2	1	4	19:53
S. TheodoreD · #27	0	0	0	4	0	0	2	18:49

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. HartG · #79	23	2	21	.913	59:51

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

WPG

Away

Stat

VGK

Home

Shots

20.0

PCT

28.6

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

VGK wins series 2-1

Jan 7

VGK4@

WPG3

Mar 25

VGK1@

WPG4

Apr 14

WPG2@

VGK6today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

VGK -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

WPG+15439%

VGK-18565%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet VGK -1.5↗SpreadBet VGK -1.5↗

Line movement · 36 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

VGK beat WPG 6-2. J. Eichel led the way — 1 G · 3 A · 4 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
WPG	0	0	2	2
VGK	0	2	4	6

Period scoring

WPG won 0 · VGK won 2

WPG

VGK

Play-by-play · 289 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
WPG 2·VGK 6
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
WPG 2·VGK 6
3rd·18:54
Kaedan Korczak shot blocked by Adam Lowry
·
WPG 2·VGK 6
3rd·18:23
Cole Koepke Snap Shot saved by Carter Hart
·
WPG 2·VGK 6
3rd·18:21
Josh Morrissey Slap Shot saved by Carter Hart
·
WPG 2·VGK 6
3rd·18:01
Jonathan Toews faceoff won against Mitch Marner
·
WPG 2·VGK 6
3rd·18:01
Off-side
WPG 2·VGK 6
3rd·17:44
Takeaway by Nino Niederreiter
WPG 2·VGK 6
3rd·17:38
Isak Rosen shot blocked by Kaedan Korczak
·
WPG 2·VGK 6
3rd·16:37
Mark Scheifele Batted saved by Carter Hart
·
WPG 2·VGK 6
3rd·16:17
Takeaway by Shea Theodore
WPG 2·VGK 6
3rd·16:00
Giveaway by Shea Theodore
WPG 2·VGK 6
3rd·15:58
Reilly Smith Batted Wide Right
· ·
WPG 2·VGK 6
3rd·15:57
Reilly Smith Tip-In saved by Connor Hellebuyck
· ·
WPG 2·VGK 6
3rd·15:43
Takeaway by Jeremy Lauzon
WPG 2·VGK 6
3rd·15:23
Giveaway by Keegan Kolesar
WPG 2·VGK 6
3rd·15:22
Giveaway by Brad Lambert
WPG 2·VGK 6
3rd·15:03
Adam Lowry faceoff won against Nic Dowd
·
WPG 2·VGK 6
3rd·15:03
Goalie Stopped
WPG 2·VGK 6
3rd·15:02
Nic Dowd Snap Shot saved by Connor Hellebuyck
· ·
WPG 2·VGK 6
3rd·15:00
Kaedan Korczak shot blocked by Cole Smith
· ·
WPG 2·VGK 6
3rd·14:58
Nic Dowd shot blocked by Colin Miller
·
WPG 2·VGK 6
3rd·14:49
Nic Dowd faceoff won against Jonathan Toews
·
WPG 2·VGK 6
3rd·14:49
Goalie Stopped
WPG 2·VGK 6
3rd·14:48
Jacob Bryson Wrist Shot saved by Carter Hart
·
WPG 2·VGK 6
3rd·14:18
Mitch Marner faceoff won against Brayden Yager
·
WPG 2·VGK 6
3rd·14:18
Goalie Stopped
WPG 2·VGK 6
3rd·14:16
Brad Lambert Wrist Shot saved by Carter Hart
·
WPG 2·VGK 6
3rd·14:14
Nino Niederreiter Backhand saved by Carter Hart
·
WPG 2·VGK 6
3rd·13:45
Cole Perfetti hit Brayden McNabb
·
WPG 2·VGK 6

Betting line

VGK -1.5·O/U 5.5·WPG +154/VGK -185

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

egas Golden Knights held off Winnipeg Jets, 6–2.

VGK -1.5 cashed (won by 4). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 27 skaters with EDGE

Jack EichelVGK · C
DIST MI82.899+
Shea TheodoreVGK · D
DIST MI84.899+
Kyle ConnorWPG · LW
DIST MI293.099+
Mitch MarnerVGK · RW
DIST MI75.199+
Tomas HertlVGK · C
xGF%6599

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

55.4%

ensemble · VGK favored

Elo Static
58.9%
P(VGK win)
68%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
58.9%
P(VGK win)
16%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
58.9%
P(VGK win)
17%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+154

Close price

+154

Open no-vig

37.8%

Close no-vig

37.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in WPG at VGK?: The model favors WPG, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.